Soco Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 14/11/2018 11:33

So now its the next deal that's going to do that? Mmmm....

That is not the message in EE's post you are responding to. There's plenty to happen before "the next deal". I'm happy waiting for those to work through, and I'm certainly not valuing on the basis of more than we know of at present.

[stemis] 14/11/2018 11:10

As you said

"Price of oil up $20 since the reserves writedown in 2015 but shares have halved."

The market clearly doesn't fancy SOCO at the moment. - declining production from a minority holding over which they seem to have little control - corporate action was going to change that. It doesn't seem to have. So now its the next deal that's going to do that? Mmmm....

[emptyend] 14/11/2018 09:57

I don't see it that way SteMiS. The fact is that the oil price has come down $20 from its highs, taking all the E&Ps down with it. SIA has yet to present the deal formally to shareholders for their approval - and, until the conditions precedent start getting ticked off (and thus the drilling campaign comes into focus), there isn't enough company-specific news to move the market (other, perhaps, than the CNV result).I'd also add that there are other deals available in Egypt - once this one becomes a certainty to go through, I'd be unsurprised to see more quite quickly.

[tournesol] 14/11/2018 09:55

SDX is an E&P which has most of its assets in Egypt. Despite a remarkable run of success with the drill bit and a healthy financial position its share price is pretty soggy.

Perhaps the market just doesn't like Egypt?

[stemis] 14/11/2018 09:33

It does rather suggest the market is pretty uninspired by the Egyptian deal. Maybe there are other better deals in the pipeline but when so much faith was put in corporate action as a driver for change in sentiment this must be very disappointing for shareholders.

[emptyend] 13/11/2018 18:53

Indeed. Several on it......;-)Price of oil up $20 since the reserves writedown in 2015 but shares have halved. Management may not have starred, and production has reduced in the short term, but that is flat out wrong.

[tournesol] 13/11/2018 17:12

EE

Just remember, the filter is your friend.

:~)

T

[jotoha2] 13/11/2018 16:05

Empty ,You previously stated that pmo and tlw have done just as poorly as sia , but you forgot to mention that since oil hit $20 , tlw had increased by 200% from its low , while pmo had risen some 600% since its low ,while this pile of poo has fallen even lower the it was when oil was $20 .

SIA , OPHR and many others are in this state because of weak management , changes at the top required .

[dunderheed] 13/11/2018 15:55

Or the Merlon deal simply isn't that good as well, perchance?
If no exploration success then not too much too get excited about?
Me I 'm not sold on this supposed super duper BD team?
Surely they've got better connections than just this auction attendance?

[emptyend] 13/11/2018 15:47

No problem. Mine was nothing to do with you either ;-)I know someone else who sold at twice the price (well, in the move down from 180 to 150p, over three and a half years ago), and we debated the outlook. Whilst neither of us expected the ball to be "knocked out of the park" in the following year or so, I doubt that even he thought it would be down here, given the oil price moves since then. It makes no sense to me - but what it does indicate is that the company hasn't had a story to tell investors for far too long.....and (despite the Merlon deal) it still can't tell that story until they publish the circular for the EGM. They hired an investor relations person some while ago now......and so I would hope to see high levels of proactive engagement in the New Year when the Merlon deal finally closes.

[investopia] 13/11/2018 15:28

Ah, just to be clear, my previous post was nothing to do with either you or the position you hold Emptyend. I was idly reflecting on my own investing luck.

[concrete102] 13/11/2018 14:28

As far as I can see from the trades almost all the sells are AT and the almost all the buysbuys are O.

[emptyend] 13/11/2018 13:57

Suggest usual ad hominem suspects compare the last few weeks of other E&Ps' charts.......

[brucie5] 13/11/2018 12:42

Yes. You would have been beter off investing in the size of EE's ego, than in the mcap of his favourite share. The former has not reduced.

[investopia] 13/11/2018 12:39

New lows. Share price starts with a seven again. Who'd have thought it?

Fascinating, really (in a morbid kind of way). It's now more than 50% down from where I got out. And to think I worried back then that I could be selling at the bottom.

The market isn't even 'risk off' at the moment. Could be a lot more downside to come, maybe.

[fangorn2] 09/11/2018 09:36

@EE

emptyend8 Nov '18 - 12:29 - 21862 of 21869
0 1 1
Certainly there are plenty that have done worse, Fangorn. Not that losing 2/3 of value in 5 years is anything to crow about....but the point earlier was that it is pretty much in line with the three companies that I have always viewed as comparable for size and resources.

Yep agree on all fronts.


I can't really understand why dividend paying, slow-growing Shell and BP have done quite so much better than a dividend-paying, slow-growing SOCO......though of course staying profitable throughout and being massively more diversified does have some value.

Think you've nailed the reason - the search for yield has focused very much on geographical diversification, strength of reserves and thus abiliy to weather any "temporary storms" and still pay that juicy divi.

It's now year 30 for me and never sell Shell :)


But if we are now looking at doubling production and growing volumes and profits from there, then I'd be expecting a rerating at some point (albeit not as quickly as I would have supposed)

Very tempted to buy back in myself but after disasters in GKP, Genel Bowleven et al am a tad wary tbh.

[emptyend] 08/11/2018 18:56

Not sure whether we noticed it at the time......don't recall discussing it...... but there is a detailed presentation re the Merlon deal on the website. Further details soon(ish) in the EGM circular, but some of these questions will be answered already.I note that the production growth expectation is for more or less a straight line through to a peak in 2024.....but that only accounts for current 2P&2C and not for any further discoveries from the substantial exploration area.....and that, IMO, is where the interesting bit of the deal is - because there is reckoned to to be 500mn bbls of unrisked potential....and they will be making a huge effort with perhaps 60 wells over the next two years to secure this upside.I'l sure the focus for now is on getting the EGM circular out and the deal completed.....but don't mistake a lack of announcements for a lack of activity.

[lauders] 08/11/2018 16:30

Slight correction there kenobi ".... IF we get that performance out of Soco"!

We can but hope and pray. In the meantime the market shows better opportunities and holding SIA is a cost. Always been interested in having a "dabble" in PMG but my luck with oilers prevents me from hitting the buy icon.

[emptyend] 08/11/2018 14:32

You are right that it is a matter of confidence. With the benefit of hindsight on CNV etc with SIA, I don't think I'd be plunging into HUR personally.....but it is horses for courses.

[tournesol] 08/11/2018 14:00

For me the question is not so much "will Soco recover from here?" but rather "which E&P will perform best over the next 6-12-24 months?"

I currently hold 3 E&P's:- SDX; Parkmead; Hurricane. I have reasonable confidence in SDX, high confidence in PMG and extreme confidence in HUR, albeit the latter comes with a small risk of complete failure.

I have no idea why the market has deserted Soco and no idea whether its fall from grace is deserved. I just have to accept the verdict of the market for the time being and position myself accordingly - which means I'm not holding Soco right now. If I had a deeper insight into SIA's operational situation I might feel comfortable going against market sentiment but I don't. Good luck to those of you who have the insight and the cojones to stride where I fear to tread.

[dunderheed] 08/11/2018 12:41

Ee there's literally tens of others which have done massively better but they are non UK listed.
You didn't make that obvious when commenting about relative pfmce of oil and gas companies.
I always look to the small mid large super American Indies as good bench marks for UK listed capital and see through that 'prism', so apologise for that misunderstanding.

[emptyend] 08/11/2018 12:29

Certainly there are plenty that have done worse, Fangorn. Not that losing 2/3 of value in 5 years is anything to crow about....but the point earlier was that it is pretty much in line with the three companies that I have always viewed as comparable for size and resources.On the flipside, one would have done much better to hold Shell over the last 5 years. I had some (and still have a few after selling a chunk at £27.60) .....but the only companies of any size that have done better than Shell's +19% over five years are Serica, Sound, Regal and Falcon.I can't really understand why dividend paying, slow-growing Shell and BP have done quite so much better than a dividend-paying, slow-growing SOCO......though of course staying profitable throughout and being massively more diversified does have some value. But if we are now looking at doubling production and growing volumes and profits from there, then I'd be expecting a rerating at some point (albeit not as quickly as I would have supposed)