Soco Share Discussion Threads

[emptyend] 07/6/2018 13:19

Interesting AGM......doubtless Ed will be reporting from a train shortly......;-)

[ny boy] 07/6/2018 10:37

Talking of cash cows, a nice fat juicy divi payday Friday week!

Steady as she goes Sir, full steam ahead!

[dunderheed] 07/6/2018 10:35

It doesnt always work that way higher oil price lower cost recovery bbls which I assume they include in their 2p as well or do they show the cost recovery oil as govt debtor? I don't know I'm just arsking like...

[flyinghorse1] 07/6/2018 10:16

Regarding Reserves, I recall ES being upbeat about TGT recovery factors--What I am more interested in is the current P50 view on STOIIP /RF bearing in mind the high quoted past recovery factors (they could never square away with auditors) and whats the view on remaining P50 recoverable on an Economic limits test that ignores other factors such as license length/FPSO hire (ie truncating them)-The FPSO (due to OPEX) will have a limiting factor.

Our expectation is that oil price lead to the recategorisation a few years back, so now oil price forecasts are up some reserves need to be brought back into 2P. If the view on recovery factor has changed for example this may be a false assumption by us here.
Would be worth quizzing then on what is preventing writing back some of the 2C to 2P.

Someone mentioned SOCO being conservative on reserves--it would be good to know what areas they are being conservative about.

[nigelpm] 07/6/2018 09:54

100% in agreement - they must be pushed and not just think they are content to rest on their laurels and large salaries and share options.

[yasrub] 07/6/2018 09:31

The cash generation does focus the mind - I am currently treating this as a cash cow with opportunity/the need of management to deliver on the asset strategy - I do believe they need to be pressed hard on this.

[nigelpm] 07/6/2018 09:21

First RNS with some tangible revenue/cash numbers based on recent oil prices - and share price ticks up - expect market to start paying attention.

[stepone68] 07/6/2018 09:04

That's a well thought through argument, ebb, which merits plenty of discussion.

Not.

[emptyend] 07/6/2018 08:12

Bakero.....I've just compiled a list of questions on my way to the AGM.....what do you expect? ......;-)YASRUB is right that the deal is all....but little can be said. The reserves question is all about getting data. A late start to drilling and sorting the FPSO/compressors don't help, but could still be done by year end enough to justify reserves writebacks.

[nigelpm] 07/6/2018 08:07

LSE down - wow - first time I've ever seen that.

[yasrub] 07/6/2018 08:00

Not entirely surprised, the nature of the strategy announced 12 months or so ago means in principle PIs SHOULD only find out when a deal is done. Those execs being well paid for such a direction I suspect will now be receiving quite a few questions and need to deliver.

The cash generation is reassuring. TGT and CNV will just go at the pace agreed by all partners - not sure this will help with the reserves though.

[nigelpm] 07/6/2018 07:49

Don't ignore the cash position though - $150m pre dividend payout of $23m - and revenue of $72m in 5 months of 2018.

[bakero] 07/6/2018 07:47

It worries me when you sound slightly downbeat here emptyend!

[emptyend] 07/6/2018 07:32

Two rigs hired, so should be catching up with drilling. Reading between the lines, I suspect that the compressor resolution and the FPSO contract are inter-dependent. On production it looks like the range for the year is quite well set now and I doubt they will resolve the compressor issue in time to beat a 9k boepd average. The year-end exit rate may be rather better though?Still feels as if little progress is being made operationally whilst waiting for "the right deal".I hope there is a decent Q&A opportunity today.....

[flyinghorse1] 06/6/2018 19:59

Its actually under investor presentations, Q1 2018 Analyst Briefing -page 5 of the presentation (click here to read more needs followed)

hxxp://www.bumiarmada.com/251_250_250_363/Web/WebEvent/Investor-Presentations/Q1-2018-Analyst-Briefing.html

[emptyend] 06/6/2018 19:02

Good spot, fh1. Remember that the extra water handling was put on the platform. I get the sense that Bumi haven't done as well during the contract as they think they have, so I doubt that the extension is a certainty (though it could easily emerge tomorrow, as there will be some sort of update...though the JOC have the decision in their hands).

[dunderheed] 06/6/2018 18:25

Apologies fh1, can you point out where it says that the contract extension is nearly complete?

[flyinghorse1] 06/6/2018 18:17

From Bumi 2017 Annual report:
"Our unit in Vietnam, Armada TGT1, which is contracted to Hoang
Long Joint Operating Company, has performed very well since
starting operations in 2011, with high uptimes, production rates
and safe operations. We are, at the time of writing, in discussions
with the client about the optional extension of the contract, as
the firm contract is due to end in August 2018. We will make the
appropriate announcement once this is finalised"

[flyinghorse1] 06/6/2018 18:04

I did note on the Bumiarmada website ( FPSO & Malaysian owned) that in the 31st May investor update that they say Armada TGT1 contract extension nearly complete.
Given that this field is FPSO produced perhaps once this is in place a production uncertainty is removed so we might get sight of how far out the reserves can be booked (not just licence extension)

May be worth asking at AGM

[emptyend] 06/6/2018 17:43

Just a heads-up for those of us attending the AGM....there has just been a major fire in the Mandarin Oriental which is just on the opposite side of Knightsbridge tube station from the AGM venue....perhaps 200 yards away at most?Therefore may be some potential disruption to movement around the area so worth checking for any guidance tomorrow morning. See you there.

[bonkers3] 06/6/2018 15:05

Appreciated responses both.
How could I forget those biggies!

[emptyend] 06/6/2018 14:45

In October 2013 there was a payment to shareholders of 40p and, a year later, another one of 22p. These were structured as B/C shares in order to take advantage of spare tax capacity for such distributions and ordinary dividends replaced them when that capacity was exhausted.Taking your figures as correct, that makes the overall distribution to shareholders (between October 2013 and this month) a total of 89.25p per share.Thanks for the details.ee

[bakero] 06/6/2018 14:41

Bonkers,You are missing the return of capital payments which, whilst not showing in the dividend history, was structured as B/C shares allowing holders to take as capital or income.IIRC;Oct-13 = 40pSep-14 = 22pSo as you say, plus an additional 62p returned in this way.