Soco Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 30/4/2018 15:22

I'd agree, Nigel that long term PoO above $100 is unlikely in the foreseeable future, but I'd say a spike, or spikes, above possibly well above are definitely on the cards.

Lead times on big projects are long, and the evidence is that there's a lack of those in the pipeline. Shale can respond moderately quickly, but it's very unlikely that it can fill the potential supply gaps smoothly. Add some unfortunate political events into the mix and it could well go above $100, and even higher.

Peter

[eggbaconandbubble] 30/4/2018 14:35

Up 6% today. Not long before SOCO are back up at 425p.

3rd May the 11th anniversary of MThead's prediction of an imminent 'Endgame'!!!

[pumph] 30/4/2018 12:17

I doubt oil will go to $300 either but on current/recent trends would imagine it would take the SIA share price to about £1.40...

[pumph] 30/4/2018 12:12

I doubt oil will go to $300 either but on current/recent trends would imagine it would take the SIA share price to about £1.40...

[emptyend] 30/4/2018 11:53

I'm not suggesting anyone should "count on it" - but I am definitely suggesting that a price spike is a risk that shouldn't be ignored. The many billions of deferred investment is going to have consequences.

[nigelpm] 30/4/2018 11:46

Let's see what happens - I remain unconvinced.

[emptyend] 30/4/2018 10:19

Nonsense, Nigel. You have only to look at how long the timescales are in the sector. SOCO isn't the only one to have taken time to get things done - everyone does. The whole business sector does.And the forecasters don't help one iota because they are not predicting a major price move, so underinvestment will persist - which, in turn, will make the price spike bigger. Heaven help us if Matt Simmons should turn out merely to have been 15-20 years early with his view on Ghawar etc. ;-)If prices spike (and I accept that isn't a certainty - whereas some sort of rise is indeed nailed on in my view) then a material supply response will take at least 4 years IMO.That transaction made complete sense for PMO and they took advantage - trying to turn that into a negative with regard Soco isn't the most logical IMHO.PMO's deal with E.On was perfectly-timed to catch the rise in prices. Just as well prices did rise though, otherwise they would have been buried, given the high prices needed for N.Sea breakeven on their other assets.

[dunderheed] 30/4/2018 10:04

Christ on a bike except project lead times are 3 years!!
I though the pm stood for project manager, obviously not!

[nigelpm] 30/4/2018 09:50

......personally I wouldn't go that far, but the next 2-3 years will see a radical change, I think.

I don't buy oil going above $100 ever again to be honest.

Enough strides have been made in alternatives the last time oil went to $150.

Oil always swings too high/low so there's a chance it might spike for a short period of time but for me that would be taken advantage of quickly.

[nigelpm] 30/4/2018 09:48

The costly issue you face is Soco's management, not me.

That transaction made complete sense for PMO and they took advantage - trying to turn that into a negative with regard Soco isn't the most logical IMHO.

[dunderheed] 30/4/2018 09:38

This is what I meant by production cliff.
Was I posting about it on here or another board, if so apologies in advance.

[emptyend] 30/4/2018 09:34

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-30/oil-hedge-fund-manager-andurand-says-300-oil-not-impossible......personally I wouldn't go that far, but the next 2-3 years will see a radical change, I think.

[dunderheed] 30/4/2018 09:33

Ha lol, I was you going to say whilst PMO did get close to the edge in that they were at the mercy of their debt holders, they do seem excellently leveraged now and a great buy opportunity!
I am confused though, because this is all history and Nigel says it's is irrelevant and tedious so why r we even discussing these things?! Obviously the past does not matter and even though the mgt is still the same it certainly is not a precursor to the future (ahem LOL).
All IMHO of course!

[ed 123] 30/4/2018 09:23

Nigelpm

Take a look at PMO's debt pile and come back to me.

You deliberately miss the point, Nigelpm.

What you've written actually gives more weight to my argument.

Even a company loaded with debt (Premier Oil) could see the opportunity and went for it. How much easier and less risky it would have been for a net cash oil company (Soco) to have done the same!

The costly issue you face is Soco's management, not me.

[dunderheed] 30/4/2018 09:18

Ed I agree assets certainly are nowhere near as cheap as 2 years ago but 4 years ago there were amazing bargains that will not be seen again for long time.
I think the train based the platform?
This was why I was very surprised the BD duo didn't do anything with their last vehicle? From my scan reading at the time a d an old man's memory they had up to $500mm for acquisitions a couple of years ago but it came to nothing?
All imho and poor memory of course.

[nigelpm] 30/4/2018 09:14

Take a look at PMO's debt pile and come back to me.

[ed 123] 30/4/2018 09:11

News from Premier Oil this morning gives some scale to the relative cheapness of oil and gas assets in 2016.

... the value realised from the E.ON portfolio, which we acquired for $120 million in 2016 and has generated free cash flow and proceeds from announced disposals of around $300 million to date."



Could Soco's management have gone for a $400 million buy? Today a $400 million buy might be worth $1 billion. That would have been a profit for shareholders of $600 million or around £1.25 per share for Soco. Result? Today's share price of £1.00 could, instead, have been £2.25?

That's the scale of the failure of Soco's management.

Oh ...... and please don't anyone say they're working on something big. Prices have moved on. No way will Soco now get the value they would have done in early in 2016.

Looking at recent posts, I'm moved to ask, 'Why direct grumbles at fellow posters?' You may not like their style but they haven't cost you a penny. Surely you holders should all be working together and directing your ire at Soco's management?

[greyingsurfer] 29/4/2018 11:43

I personally don't filter (as far as possible) because you never know when someone may post something useful.

My view entirely, DH, and I've even found you to post things worth reading! But you are getting to the point where the unpleasantness of many of your posts goes beyond it being worth keeping you unfiltered.

Peter

[dunderheed] 29/4/2018 10:52

20941. Not really mate.
I don't know why, but certain avatars have a greater ability to do that than "Nige" so I'm going to ignore them as they do me (I believe I am filtered anyway).
I personally don't filter (as far as possible) because you never know when someone may post something useful.

[jimarilo] 29/4/2018 10:38

Dunderheed 27 Apr '18 - 17:15 - 20932 of 20940

"I'm going to steer clear of this thread to save my blood pressure LOL."

Hmmm, blood pressure is up again

[dunderheed] 29/4/2018 10:16

Nigel "nice but dim".
I know it must be incredibly tedious to you with your incredible brain and trading record but two things.
1 How on earth do you know that this is the only thread populated by long term holders?! Or is that part of your incredible brain power as well?
2 It does no harm to 're visit why, potentially sia isn't doing as well as we would like, when compared to peer group.

[nigelpm] 29/4/2018 09:54

I would beg to differ on nigelpm's "utterly boring" point too. Ed has a point and this can be seen in other companies such as SDX (circle oil assets) and one that hasn't gone as well SO FAR, AMER.

The boring bit is Ed doesn't do it on any of the other ADVFN boards - he and others choose SIA because they are acutely aware that there are a bunch of private investors who have held for years and want to make their point here - it's absolutely fine of course - people can do what they want but it's tedious.

[emptyend] 29/4/2018 07:49

Lauders, I'd say it is unlikely for other reasons.....but the key point is that none of us knows and deals happen "out of the blue". Look at PMO's North Sea deal, for example, when it was literally being "priced to go bust". Nobody expected it.The analogy here is insurance. For 99.99% of the time, insuring your home looks a total waste of money. And then something happens. Its been a long - and longer than expected - wait.......but that doesn't mean nothing will be done, especially by a company that is known to be actively trying to do something.

[lauders] 29/4/2018 00:47

For all any of us know, there could be a blockbuster deal ready to be announced on Monday.....

Looking forward to tomorrow morning then LOL! Unfortunately, given SIA's past performance that is very unlikely, but I am perfectly happy to have egg on my face if EE is correct ;-)

I would beg to differ on nigelpm's "utterly boring" point too. Ed has a point and this can be seen in other companies such as SDX (circle oil assets) and one that hasn't gone as well SO FAR, AMER.

While the dividend is lovely at SIA that capital originally invested here by myself and others is "rather reduced" to put it politely, and with higher oil prices we are still at a very low price. Something needs to improve.