Sirius Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[carrbradshaw] 26/8/2016 13:03

So you think we're going to see an admission document in September - I don't think so - this will run way behind schedule as usual - have got used to delays here over the last six years - why's now any different!!

[dr rosso] 26/8/2016 12:41

Easy calc. SLE paying £170m for 10% of OML18 = block value of £1.7bn.
SLE is being rerated with 440m shares @ 50p = £220m.

Tbh, I'd be quite happy to see 1bn consideration shares going out in Owena rto.
4bn shares in issue.

Sp movement predicted as follows, with or without rto---

2p on forthcoming AD and Ororo schedule (Sept 2016)
5p on Ororo/95 5k boepd (early 2017)
10p on 241 revelation (early 2017)
20-25p on 241 in production (end-2017)
?? on other acquisitions (2018)

[carrbradshaw] 26/8/2016 12:06

Let's pray for a straight take out - puts us all out of our misery!!

[dr rosso] 26/8/2016 12:03

Straight takeout seems unlikely, tho possible. I certainly do not rule out a reverse subsidiary merger with Owena, in which case Sirius shareholders move in by default on Ororo and 241. No farm in fees.

Who'll be running show? Put your money on GVL as Chairman and a Chevron Nigeria MD moving in as CEO. Chevron's Scott is already pencilled in as Field Development Co-Ordinator.

Whatever transpires, this is big. Very big.

[bronislav] 26/8/2016 11:57

Of course they might just get taken out by GL and SH,s paymasters..You just never know.

[dr rosso] 26/8/2016 11:55

Worth a look at OML18 onshore block. 3 IOCs divested their 45% interest to a SPV called Eroton. The other 55% of the lease is held by NNPC. The block is in S. Nigeria, next to Port Harcourt. Nowhere near Lagos State in the NW, so not sure how Lagos State features in this. Eroton paid $1.2bn for 45%, which meant that the block was valued at $2.5bn a couple of years ago, in production 14kbopd, + all infrastructure.

Mart held an indirect 10% stake through a subsidiary, Martwestern, which held shares in Eroton. That 10% has now been transferred to San Leon, in a rather complex deal. SLE has raised £170m via a placing at 45p in order to pull off the acquisition, near on 400m new shares issued. Note that the asset acquisition has shot the share price from 30p to 50p despite the massive share dilution (was 62m in issue).


Implications for Sirius....

I think our share dilution has already taken place, tho could well be looking at 3bn fully diluted once options and new options come into play. The assets being acquired will overwhelm that dilution. However, poss not immediately as the initial revelations are likely to be restricted to Ororo and a schedule targeting 5k bopd by end-2016. So let's be satisfied for the moment with a rerate to a 2p platform, likely to double as Ororo/95 swing into production.
Without a doubt our biggie is 241. If OML18 has a SALE value of $2.5bn, expect the same for 241 within a couple of years. Assuming Sirius takes a 40% - 60% economic interest, Sirius mcap (not NAV) shoots to around $1.25bn. Approaching a billion quid, but lets be ultra-conservative and hold it at £600m. That 241 stake is likely to result in mcap of 20p. Add 5p for Ororo/95, which means we are realistically looking at 25p as 2017 draws to a close. That's IF they've got sufficient infrastructure preparations done by now and are ready to go.


Above figures are based on Sirius remaining independent, and staying within 3bn shares in issue. If they jv with a partner or merge into Owena, calcs would change.

[htrocka2] 26/8/2016 08:34

Thanks for that Jenny..

an o/t article....'Compressed Natural Gas' is being lined up to replace diesel.

[jenny tulwought] 25/8/2016 23:05

HT, Dr R said suspension in the next 72 hours of trading - not in the next 72 hours. BH Monday isn't included so if there are 8.5 trading hours per day, the time span runs until 12:00 (noon) on Friday 2nd Sept (by my limited grasp of maths).

[htrocka2] 25/8/2016 23:00

We're now on a twenty four month count down....and I doubt this will go to the wire.



'Sirius has now issued warrants over 100,000,000 new ordinary shares at a strike price of 2 (two) pence per share ("Warrants") to Havoc Partners. The Warrants will be exercisable from the date of grant, being the 11 August 2015, until the third anniversary of the date of grant, being the 10 August 2018.'

[ruedolf] 25/8/2016 22:26

"vatnabrekk25 Aug '16 - 20:32 - 54230 of 54234 2 0

I can't stand the excitement!!! "

Vatnabrekk ... calm down man calm down .. your getting as bad as oilbuy

.... were still only bouncing along the bottom .. in the great scheme of things

.... most long termers have bought at ten times the current price.

[carados] 25/8/2016 21:59

Into the the pocket of the internet genius who had the foresight too sucker me in obviously😅

[vatnabrekk] 25/8/2016 21:43

Where do you put the coins into an internet fruit machine?

[carados] 25/8/2016 21:37

I bloody well need it too!!! I've just lost £100 on a internet fruit machine :-(

[drrichard] 25/8/2016 20:43

Contain yourself, vatna, it will happen!

[vatnabrekk] 25/8/2016 20:32

I can't stand the excitement!!!

[htrocka2] 25/8/2016 20:30

jimduggen does....leave him alone.

[rugbybloke] 25/8/2016 19:37

No one reads this board anyway

[jimduggen] 25/8/2016 19:28

Over hyped.

Expect a drop and a big one

[htrocka2] 25/8/2016 19:19

'Something is about to break .....'


It's certainly not my heart, they've already done that when it dropped from 5p to 0.25p.

[ileeman] 25/8/2016 19:18

Nice breakout


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[chris shiherlis] 25/8/2016 18:07

Dr Rosso
25 Aug '16 - 14:06 - 54214 of 54226 8 0

Something is about to break ...........

lol

[drrichard] 25/8/2016 17:07

Either way, it has been a bloody long time since we hit .42, and with minimal selling at the lose. Bodes well for tomorrow.

[htrocka2] 25/8/2016 16:54

'Suspension within next 72 hours of trading?'...doubtful, the last time we got suspended it was a Monday.(22/02/2010)..and this Monday is a Bank Holiday. Tuesday morning however, that's another matter, because if it gets suspended it'll be in a 7:30AM rns....so in effect, tomorrow could be the last trading day to get on board for the Tuesday rns....unlucky Dr..