Simec Atlantis Energy Share Discussion Threads

[imjustdandy] 08/12/2021 09:18

Vastly oversold

[volsung] 08/12/2021 09:01

Be nice to break the 2p barrier

[david gruen] 08/12/2021 09:00

The market appears to be waking up to the massive opportunity for material gains that is Simec.

[aimbagger] 08/12/2021 08:00

Isle of Wight tidal energy project been recommended to be approved.Https://twitter.com/aim_bagger/status/1468490395046793223?s=21

[aimbagger] 07/12/2021 20:32

Https://twitter.com/greghands/status/1468263104119193608?s=21

[volsung] 07/12/2021 15:41

On the Simec!
Yeo!

[jotoha2] 07/12/2021 15:39

Mega news , should bode well here .

[master rsi] 07/12/2021 15:33

1.75p +0.20p

On the move up as some good news received

[aimbagger] 07/12/2021 13:53

Ask is dry, could see a decent move this afternoon.

[clabburn] 07/12/2021 13:46

Agree with babbo1. Its important not to underestimate the mountain SAE still have to climb but the ring fenced budget totally changes the equation and makes this well worth a punt. Cashflow and liquidity will remain extremely tight but I think there is enough here now to make a short term bridging solution likely. When they receive a CfD contract, the share price should correct and they will have fresh justification to raise capital.

[aimbagger] 07/12/2021 12:46

SAE nexthttps://twitter.com/novainnovation/status/1468191175085592579?s=21

[babbo1] 07/12/2021 11:17

Even...and it's a small even, SAE don't benefit the risk to reward ratio is one I can't resist.

[molesprout] 07/12/2021 09:44

I agree. I think this has huge potential. My price average is 2.3p so keeping averaging down when I can.

[david gruen] 07/12/2021 08:29

Agreed! Smart investment.

[aimbagger] 07/12/2021 08:29

Bought this morning, £300M of government funding for tidal energy over the coming years, cannot see how SIMEC won't massively benefit from this. In addition the PA on the chart looks fantastic, initial target 2.5p placing price then gap fill at 4.5-5p.

[david gruen] 02/12/2021 09:16

Exactly! A world leading government-backed renewable energy company! With a tiny market cap! They don't come much better than this.

[gbjbaanb] 01/12/2021 17:13

Back to 30p, perhaps. But I'm most happy that it's no longer looking like it will be 0p.

[david gruen] 01/12/2021 09:16

Back to 30p. Might take a year, but I'm happy to wait.

[dave4545] 30/11/2021 12:43

This should be the low of the day 1.6-1.7p

It's 1.67p bid online so mm's are buyers at this level

[clabburn] 29/11/2021 17:50

After a quick look at the map, it confirms what I thought. Nearly everything is either small scale prototype demonstrations or stalled projects. Meygen and the Isle of Wight are the exceptions. The latter is planning for 30MW of capacity but doesnt yet have planning permission for the onshore substation needed. I expect this will arrive in due course and that they will enter a bid into the auction alongside SAE. With a bit of nouse from their respective managements though, both should be able to get a contract. The existence of a bit of healthy competition between the two that will keep them honest was probably a factor for BEIS in allocating a specific budget for tidal.

[clabburn] 29/11/2021 17:28

Should add, it is so nice to again be assessing the potential of tidal. That was why I first bought into this company back in 2017 and it feels like we may finally have come full circle with a world leading project ready to move forward. If they can develop the full 80MW and receive a price around £150 for the power then they will be in line for about £40M of revenue a year. If Raz Blanchard then makes similar progress, and the rest of Meygen gets developed in a later round of CfD auctions then revenues from tidal will be heading to the hundres of millions a year and the company will genuinely acheived scale. A lot can of course go wrong and this is the ultimate in blue sky forecasting but it's nice to at least see the glimmour of light at the end of the tunnel!

[mdchand] 29/11/2021 17:24

Hi Clabburn

That is an incredibly useful post in both explaining the auction mechanics and the availability of alternative bidders. That last sentence may well be the most important one here in determining the outcome of the auction. As a lay person I thought there were many more advanced projects into tidal stream generation, but perhaps not.

I did come across the following website which you may already use.



Does this further confirm your initial assessment above re one other project that may be eligible? And once again, huge thanks to you for your input and expertise.

[clabburn] 29/11/2021 17:10

mdchand - it depends on how aggressive they bid into the auction. I did do a back of the envelope calculation previously and estimated they would receive about £10-11m a year if they put a bid in at around £90/MWh. They way it works is that the company gets a premium on top of whatever the wholesale energy price ends up being and for budget purposes BEIS have this pegged at £49 for 2024/25. So if we bid £100, again for budget purposes, we would get an extra £50/MWh as subsidy. Spread across a year and facoring in that tidal power has a load factor of 38% you would end up with a subsidy of £14M a year. In reality it may come in higher or lower depending on what actually happens in the power market but for Atlantis the effect would be to guarantee the price they get ends up being £100/MWh.

I should add that this was a very rough guess made quickly during a break from work so may well be inaccurate. That said I did base it on comments made after their last auction bid and the relevant info in the BEIS docs. That was when we were going to be competing against floating wind and would have needed to be as aggressive as possible to stand any chance of getting a contract. Now that there is a ring fenced pot the situation is totally different. They will be able to play things a lot safer and the new partnership with Nova will be a factor as they have no doubt committed to buying some of their kit which I have no knowledge of whatsoever. I expect they will probably bid closer to the strike price of £211 but maybe not for the full 80MW of capacity. If they bid the whole 80MW at £211, I think the budget would need to be more like £45M.

Essentially though, I expect they will get the lion share of the budget simply becasue there arent many other projects ready to bid in. I only know of one other project with necessary consents at the Isle of Wight planning to use the Orbital turbines but its still quite early stage and I cant see that being for more than a few megawatts.