Shire Share Discussion Threads

[rfv] 25/7/2007 08:16

Opened long yesterday at about 3.30pm. Felt more than a bit peeved at 4.30. Shire though is bucking the trend this morning thank goodness.

[the_doctor] 18/7/2007 20:58

Not sure that I'm the expert & havent been following SHP too much recently.

However, I went short previously, because most of the big catalysts are now done as far as I can remember.
The next stage will be Vyvanse's launch and seeing how it does. My guess is that its a lot more likely to disappoint than excite.

Today's drop looks market driven. I'm 50:50 whether the FTSE will see the top again. Given the Dow's finish, it perhaps will. So IMO, Shire is too high to go long, but too low to short. I'll probably short if it gets up to 1255.

[rfv] 18/7/2007 20:50

Glad I got out of GSK - Sadly on the way down but at least in profit. Back into Shire - always dangerous though prior results but hey ho. You are the expert Doctor, has the stock formed a double bottom or are we tumbling?

[the_doctor] 11/7/2007 17:00

I'll add: once Vyvanse is on the market and its future performance becomes clearer.

[stbro] 11/7/2007 16:45

MORGAN STANLEY RESUMES SHIRE WITH OVERWEIGHT RATING, PRICE TARGET OF 1,400P

[the_doctor] 11/7/2007 16:20

It hasnt been launched yet has it

Strange that JPM didnt think of that before!

I think we'll see a few more overoptimistic forecasts downgraded in due course...

[rfv] 11/7/2007 16:16

Well done Doc,

Due to a markdown by J P Morgan - worries that the take up for Vyanase is not as good as expected. Wait for the 1/2 term results.

[the_doctor] 11/7/2007 14:58

Wish I'd stuck to my guns, but was just happy to have turned the large initial loss into a reasonable profit.

[the_doctor] 10/7/2007 09:34

Added shorts as it went up, which meant sitting on quite a loss at the peak.

Back in profit now, so closed.

Might go short again if it spikes up later today, although my expectation is that it'll remain flat-to-down for a while now.

[the_doctor] 09/7/2007 15:22

It means that the rising wedge we are now seeing could break to the downside.

The idea being that it is losing momentum as it goes up along the wedge.
It is subsequently then expected to drop down.

[rfv] 09/7/2007 15:21

What is that?

[the_doctor] 09/7/2007 12:39

Bearish rising wedge?

[the_doctor] 06/7/2007 12:25

Ok, maybe it does!

Right... I expect it to go up then ;o)

[the_doctor] 06/7/2007 09:50

I'm not so sure it always does the opposite, although I guess that depends on what you expect ;o)

My feeling is that all of the recent news should have been expected and priced in already, so, I dont see the reason for further rises.

[rfv] 06/7/2007 09:37

Doctor, medicine may be required here. As I said always does the reverse of what is expected. Seriously though can't see any reason for the rise bar some analyst rec.

[the_doctor] 06/7/2007 09:37

Darn, opened a bit too early, although I thought I probably had.
Was thinking that market weakness would take its toll.
Still think it will....

I'm looking at this settling back down to 1200p minimum

[the_doctor] 05/7/2007 14:51

Agree that its a bit risky,
although looking at the trend line, it has usually pulled back 25-50p after hitting it twice.

[rfv] 05/7/2007 14:24

I am still in. Agree that the share price has risen too much too quickly and is probably due a slight correction. I would not short though as Shire has the habit of doing the complete opposite of what is expected.

[the_doctor] 05/7/2007 13:02

Just gone short here.

I think its a pretty good company all in all, but theres more downside potential than upside potential IMO.
I'm also using it to hedge my other bios incase of a market downturn.

Biggest risk is a takeover, but I think its too high a price already.

A huge amount rests on the company's ability to switch patients over from Adderall XR to Vyvanse (NRP104). Given the benefits of Vyvanse are only limited, the competition from generic Adderall XR when that arrives will be tough.

[the_doctor] 21/6/2007 10:31

Its too early to say if they've come up trumps with the New River deal, since we dont yet know how successful the switch from Adderal XR to Vyvanse will be