Shire Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 25/10/2017 18:52

Yes, I get that feeling as well steeplejack :-S

[steeplejack] 25/10/2017 18:19

I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get a good clobbering on Friday.I feel the share wants to overshoot on the downside and become silly cheap before it rebounds.Its just a hunch but since I have no intention of selling,I'll just be irritated rather than overly concerned.

[essentialinvestor] 25/10/2017 17:35

Thanks Phil, I'm over 60% in cash currently. Even bought some gold earlier today-PHCP.

[essentialinvestor] 25/10/2017 17:30

I'm more nervous on markets in general atm, US in particular looks toppy.

On Shire, net debt would not concern me with current FCF, GSK would
kill for Shires FCF.

The market appears fixiated on generic and competitor risk with SHP atm.
Whether rightly or wrongly, might become a little clearer on Friday

[toffeeman] 25/10/2017 16:50

Know what you mean EI!

[essentialinvestor] 25/10/2017 16:46

Think I found at least a partial reason for the GSK dive,
The CEO's comments today about being .. a consolidator in the fragmented
consumer products market. And they may be interested in Merck's OTC business


Had a very small amount of Shire at 36.05, promised myself I would not,
probably regret it.
.

[justiceforthemany] 25/10/2017 16:33

Poodle FTSE follows the DOW down when it plummets but barely rose itself when the DOW was on a tear this month. Disgraceful BS.

[andyj] 25/10/2017 16:24

With the speed SHP and the FTSE has turned, I will lower my buy price! Not in yet, at least my FTSE short is bearing fruit, some compensation when my portfolio is being battered!

[philanderer] 25/10/2017 16:22

andyj was waiting for 3600p so he'll be in now as well.

Luck to all.

[toffeeman] 25/10/2017 16:10

In at 36.0175 - stop loss at 34.5

[toffeeman] 25/10/2017 16:08

Getting tempted here....

[steeplejack] 25/10/2017 15:50

I hope we're not going to mimic GSK on Friday.

[mbmiah] 25/10/2017 14:36

The share price suggests that a takeover/merger would be welcomed at this point in time

[justiceforthemany] 25/10/2017 13:50

So even in a 'worst-case' scenario Shire should be trading around 4500p. Quite a discount then.

[philanderer] 25/10/2017 13:47

Credit Suisse Slashes Shire Target Price, Says Discount To Peers "Unjustified"


Shire's current discount to its global sector peers is unjustified, even under a worst case scenario for haemophilia and hereditary angiodema, Credit Suisse argues.

In a research report published on Wednesday, the analysts said the shares were then trading at a roughly 40% discount in terms of the price-to-earnings multiple, amid suggestions that so-called 'sell-side forecasts are "unrealistic".

Yet even after revisiting its own estimates for Xidra, lowering its assumptions for the HAE franchise, assuming faster erosion from competition for Lialda and lowering its haemophilia numbers, it found that the shares should be trading 23% higher.

Specifically, the Swiss broker dropped its projections for the company's 2020 revenues and earnings per share by 8% and 15%, pushing their estimate of net asset value from 5590p to 5190p and the target price from 5350p to 4500p.

The theoretical upside in the share price as implied by its estimates held true even under worst case scenarios for haemophilia and HAE erosion.

Hence, Credit Suisse stuck by its 'outperform' recommendation on the stock.

"We conclude that, despite all the recent setbacks and uncertainty, the current valuation effectively eliminates haemophilia, Xiidra & HAE income."

[philanderer] 25/10/2017 13:47

edit: double post :-)

[mbmiah] 25/10/2017 09:57

Just keep waiting, you'll make lots of money

[toffeeman] 25/10/2017 08:09

Buy at 3600 or wait for 3500?

[philanderer] 24/10/2017 16:11

Thanks for the reply fozzy , luck with those.

Agree justice , way under that 5000p should do now.

[justiceforthemany] 24/10/2017 15:57

Vulnerable to an imminent hostile bid like Spire this week. Ornskov fed up. Will sell up IMO. Activists and shareholders fuming. Even mid 40's will get the job done now.

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2017 15:34

Best of luck.

[fozzyb] 24/10/2017 15:33

I had a limit at 3633 that got filled, if you ask why there, it's because I thought it possible. I often set limits way below spot pricing and take advantage of what I see as value which is challenging in this market.That being said my average position is still late 30s so this is an average down, but happy to hold. I will put a further limit in at £33 just in case as long term I believe this is undervalued, and happy to hold for a number of years.

[steeplejack] 24/10/2017 14:39

This share price performance,we're not far above a three low,makes the Baxalta acquisition look like an error of judgement.On Friday,the management are going to have to make a very good apologia as to why the market is an idiot and why the company is a snip at these prices.First and foremost,analysts will scour the results looking for anything that might vindicate the weakness in the share price.In that context,it's anyone's bet whether the shares slump further or enjoy a sharp recovery.I lost touch with the thinking behind this share when they broke down through £40.

[essentialinvestor] 24/10/2017 14:22

I'm always intrigued when people give an exact target buy price.

So on £36, you would not buy at 36.05, or 36.01 ?.