Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[borromini1] 04/6/2020 22:17

The H2H analysis will help optimise the deal value STX deem justified from the US commercialisation partner, Tim keeps saying that due to the extensive patent period taking a bit longer to get the right deal is the optimum approach.

What is negative about that?

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 21:25

Usual negative nonsense from Borromini. That analysis will not hold up the deal because as cranky man says that trial has not been submitted to the US regulators so can't be discussed by the reps. It will be used to get the health ecomics data which can be presented at conferences and discussed by MSLs but that definitely doesn't need to be part of the deal.

Complete and utter nonsense as usual...

[fanramptastic mate] 04/6/2020 21:11

thanks for the feedback.

fanny

[crankyman] 04/6/2020 21:09

Thanks for all the briefing.
Regarding the H2H it can’t be used in the US to communicate with doctors because the law doesn’t allow trials not mentioned in the label to be used in medical communication.
We all knew the result of this trial - before the comms fumble. It failed on the ITT. Even then the PP outcome was trending poorer. But so what? These patients were failures on oral before. It’s a good result to get what they got. But anyway- who cares? This is not going to make a deal or break it. What is a worry is the low share kills a capital raise. They really must sign that deal

[borromini1] 04/6/2020 20:55

H2H review will take another 2 months, medical journal publication presumably longer. Tim said the H2H analysis provides key economic insights for the case for Feraccru/Accrufer.

I doubt the US commercialisation deal will be finalised until the detail of the H2H can play a full role within the negotiations.

The idea is that the H2H detailed analysis will provide insight on Feraccru v Ferinject within the first twelve weeks, showing comparative performance against the one hit immediacy of Ferinject from first dosing.

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 20:23

Yes Tim is not the best presenter but having spoken to him at length on a number of occasions he is a genuine guy. Rather someone like that than a slimey toe rag extrovert CEO whom you can't trust as far as you can kick them!

[frrinvest] 04/6/2020 20:06

Tim is not exactly a polished performer which is typical of all CFOs which he was before becoming a CEO. Chances of deal "high", he said, very confident about H2H and the market in China.

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 19:20

And yes he said the upfront would be 'substantial'. I think that was the word he used!

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 19:19

Yes I was reassured after the presentation. Very important that they are looking to license to just one company which may then sublicense. Previously it seemed to me their strategy was not clear as what their approach was. And on the slide it said the deal would be concluded in the Summer which is very promising.

Overall a very good presentation!

[peachie 74] 04/6/2020 19:17

Im sure he insinuated the upfront US payment will be large...I think... I will re watch tomorrow

[peachie 74] 04/6/2020 19:14

Good presentation.
Main points.....

US deal will most probably be with 1 company, and that company may sub license. Over 100 companies were interested and considered.
Very strong likelihood deal done this year. ( Hopefully next week eh !?)( obviously limited to what he can say)

Relationship with Carl still good. Tim known him since pre Shield days.

Tim has become more and more of the belief that the H2H holds loads of great results to use moving forward in deals. Review results inside 2 months.

ASK moving forward for phase 3 trials .....China massive market

One of Board members ( can't remember name ) vast US experience

Will be more, but a snap shot for those interested. Video will be available on Proactive

[daveboy1] 04/6/2020 17:22

Two days running, they drop off nearly all the day's gains right at the end. Very peculiar.

[ekcs] 04/6/2020 11:45

So it is fair to say that the market opportunity is clear for all to see. Yes, like any company STX has had a few hiccups (and unfairly these have happened during the current global crisis meaning there has been excessive punishment to the share price), but seemingly new people are there to drive it forward (the new Chair 's CV suggests he's both an experienced financier and deal-maker, which surely should bode well.

I guess the best thing to do is ask the CEO at the event this evening if questions are allowed.

Reading the AR (probably because of the auditor and NOMAD combined and the fact the CEO has lots of experience as a CFO), they seem to be really over-doing the going concern concerns, bearing in mind they can surely delay the multi-million pound kids study (which probably gets delayed anyway due to coronavirus when you look at all the other studies that have suffered delays recently if not looking at something to do with COVID-19).

Presumably they also would not start that study until a US deal was done - why take the risk? Another reason why the cash runway should go well beyond Q1. It would be nice for them to say that.

It would have been nice of them to explain these levers rather than just make bland statements that raise concerns.

Of course even a poor deal should completely remove any long-term funding issues.

On that point it would be good to have an understanding of the current status of negotiations (do they have basic terms agreed etc...) and also the anticipated range of terms, i.e. are the guidances given by finnCap et al reasonable assumptions or grossly over-estimating what will be delivered?

Perhaps if potential investors had that level of colour they may well dip their toes in the the share price might respond positively etc...

[shandypants2] 04/6/2020 09:33

Lako - you must be a glass half empty man.

No news? Ok not great recently but Chinese deal was only signed in January. Feraccru is not approved yet in China and at time STX had c£4m in bank yet got a good deal done.

Now we have more than double that amount of cash, a figure you state as tiny. RNS has to warn of cash run off, probably required by Momad, as US deal cannot be guaranteed.

Yes US deal delay has been frustrating but surely ex CEO departure tells us who may have been the blocker there.

US market is massive and will be transformational for STX.
10% of US IV market is over £1bn in value - do the math

[peachie 74] 03/6/2020 21:37

It maybe, true. I just feel over emphasis occurs sometimes

TBF perhaps I do at times !

[nobbygnome] 03/6/2020 20:54

>> peachie

Agreed. He has a curious way of over analysing certain aspects. I have always doubted his motives...but that may be unfair!

[peachie 74] 03/6/2020 20:53

Nobby ... definitely.

It will define the company over the next few years

[peachie 74] 03/6/2020 20:52

Lako. Appreciate your view. And agreed.
But Boromm... appears and at times is bullish, at times exaggerates every problem.
Everything hasn’t been rosey your are right. But Borromini creates a spin that isn’t justified at times IMO
and I struggle with their agenda.

[nobbygnome] 03/6/2020 20:34

It all comes down to whether you think they will sign a US licensing deal. You pays your money and you take your chance. I am confident they will sign a deal....especially in the current circumstances!

[lako42] 03/6/2020 20:27

Daveboy was saying he's surprised why seemingly nobody is interested. I was merely providing a few reasons. Does everything have to be rosey to warrant a view? As I said, I hold shares, but can see why its on the sidelines.

[peachie 74] 03/6/2020 20:14

Hmmmmmm. People who know still know the value of this product

If you think H2H or other things take away from this product then off you go.
IV iron market massive
Shield have an alternative
Believe it. Buy a share. Don’t believe and sell.
Simples

[peachie 74] 03/6/2020 20:10

I can never quite understand why people would post on a board where their view is so negative ...

Oh yes. You can short shares ! Forgot for a minute !