Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[peachie 74] 11/6/2020 10:38

Who would sell at 85 !!!!!!! Let’s see !

Might take a loss on some SNG and put it in here

[nobbygnome] 11/6/2020 10:35

And a few more. But yes I will buy a chunk if it goes into the mid 80s...

[daveboy1] 11/6/2020 10:28

Looks like Nobby may get his 80 something, as the drop appears to be ongoing. Hope Tim knows what he is doing..

[peachie 74] 11/6/2020 10:25

Cannot have anything to do with Shields prospect.....all good , in fact excellent atm.

[stevee1234] 11/6/2020 10:22

Although the selling is effecting Shield's share price I suspect it's more about someone's flight to cash in the current market than anything to do with Shield's prospects.

[nobbygnome] 11/6/2020 10:22

I have also bought some this morning as 94p is a giveaway price. The impatience in the market these days is unbelievable. I doubt we have more than 2 months to wait for a deal yet still people are baling out at a lowly price. Complete madness

[daveboy1] 11/6/2020 10:13

Haha, nice one ! There's just no logic out there at the moment. Messy day in general as well. Tis the Red Sea out there, Cap'n.

[peachie 74] 11/6/2020 09:55

Dave, I will join you !!!

Struggling to understand why someone would sell now with so much hopefully good news to come !

[daveboy1] 11/6/2020 09:19

When/if this deal ever comes, I am going to run around my estate shouting ptang yang kipperbang through all the neighbours letter boxes ;¬)

[daveboy1] 11/6/2020 08:59

Really being tested with these now !!
In again at 92p - GLA.

[shandypants2] 09/6/2020 14:20

yes, surprised i've managed to top up lower than £1 too.

I'm locked and loaded now so will just sit on my hands.

Feb 2020 presentation (p5) shows the massive upside of an US deal so am surprised this hasn't started ticking up a little in anticipation.
If it was c£1.80 after FDA approval then US deal would have increased this to maybe £2.50.
Clearly there has been a delay but ultimately nothing has really changed.

Purely IMHO i suspect ex CEO maybe wanted to maximise value by splitting US deal across more than one company and now STX has stated it will be a single deal it would suggest US companies weren't comfortable with this.

US deal now summer 2020 - so June to August. A slight delay from previous Q2 but i'm not overly concerned.

Re H2H i think the main value of the results analysis is the independence as STX has incorrectly announced the results due to their admin error. There is clearly great value in Feraccru from weeks 12 to 52. It has been suggested that the focus will be on the analysis up to week 12. I'm sure this will be looked at but if the endpoint was always week 12 why would you focus analysis on pre 12 week results? I'm not convinced.

Also Chinese deal is $11.4m upfront plus same after regulatory approval plus all costs paid. So with reg approval this is c$25m.
Now in US FDA approval is already achieved and product has extensive approval.
Therefore using Chinese payment as a benchmark then US deal upfront payment will be a minimum of $40m IMHO - FinnCap has stated $50m (or possibly ££).

[daveboy1] 09/6/2020 11:11

And there's the 4p we eventually picked up last week knocked off again, lol. Ah well, keeping popping back in for a few more at 98p.

[ekcs] 08/6/2020 10:00

@daveboy1 3369

With a deal done can't imagine the former CEO would be in the slightest bit interested in jumping back in as with 10%, even at the current pathetic share price/company valuation he's sitting on >£10m which, with pretty much any deal that at least removes any threat of a fund raise, would see that value go up signficantly. Having had the idea to set the company up, acquire the product, raise all the money, lead the company through 2 major product approvals etc... he's clearly no mug. But what do I know as I'm no psychologist!!


@Nobbygnome 3374

For a product like Feraccru One could envisage the following...

BIG company partner = risks are it is a bag filler, used as a product to get payors/prescribers to take other (more expensive) products as a package all meaning it doesn't then get promoted enough which isn't good for a royalty-based licence deal. Also big pharma can drop promotional spend on a product at the drop of a hat if they have a (slight) change in strategy. On the other hand if the y did get behind the product then the sky is the limit.

So One would have thought the company would want a buyout from big pharma

On the other hand with small pharma they get focus, strategic intent around a core product that they would build a franchise around. Downsides are potential lack of resource, probably don't have the firepower to undertake a buyout and perhaps upfront won't be as rich, but probably looking at higher royalty rates (but that needs successful execution) in the world's most attractive, largest and best reimbursed market.

Hopefully they have the choice and realistically either should provide handsome returns for shareholders... they just need to get one done and of course the sooner the better for all stakeholders.

[frrinvest] 07/6/2020 09:31

Deal end of summer or could just be round the corner. Take your pick!

[nobbygnome] 07/6/2020 07:51

Much easier to do a deal with one partner than multiple partners. Overall I don't think that will affect the upfront or the sales royalties. Don't forget the purchaser if they are going to sub license, will probably just be selling in one area so sub licensing will maximise profitability for them beyond their core area which increases the potential for them.

Just a comment about the size of the company which does the deal. Of course we would all like to see a big company like Pfizer or GSK. However, there is an argument to say that smaller midcap Pharma will do a more efficient job because they are likely to be more focused on this project. On balance I think I would prefer a big company but there are pros and cons.

[peachie 74] 06/6/2020 23:06

We have not been told there is one partner “farming out “either. The main thing is one major US buyer. Let’s not negative spin something where there is no negative spin.

You’ve sold. So why back here ? Not to encourage us holders to sell as an act of human kindness

[peachie 74] 06/6/2020 22:57

Why on earth would shield collapse !!!!

Give up Cranky. Not doing yourself any favours mate.

And your futuristic views have an agenda. I think you said there would be a drop to 55p again. Good luck waiting

[crankyman] 06/6/2020 22:13

When you say the whole pie - I think the prospect of a margin above 20% has faded in my mind. We're told that there is one partner who will farm out the indications to separate specialists and take on a part themselves. That will mean a further cut for them as middle men. If it works - great - but I can't see Shield ending up with a very large share in the end - probably 15%. That would still be a handsome revenue stream.

However, we are also told there is a lot of interest. Presumably, if this was the case, there would be other options to turn to if one was stalling in the hope that Shield would collapse and they could pick up Accrufer in a firesale. It's a bit high risk.

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 20:50

I can't see him stepping back in, whatever happens. I still have a feeling at the back of my mind that the Americans want the whole pie, and that is why it's taking so long to finalize. If that was the case, I feel CS would have opposed this as co-founder, and after much deliberation, stepped down. Just MHO, based on frequent dealings on a personal level. Could be completely wrong, of course !!

[crankyman] 06/6/2020 20:43

I don't doubt the previous CEO did everything possible to get a deal - it's just that his strategy and the selling of himself and the company as a viable partner -in the end- hasn't delivered it. Maybe trust was eroded. Probably the covid situation didn't help. There is a potential that, once a deal is signed (if it is signed) Sterritt steps back into the job. There's nothing to stop him.

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 19:50

Just a bit of fun re peachies comment concerning Carl S ! Hopefully a good inspiration for him staying on to help push the US deal through on good terms.. I believe he holds just over 10 million shares.

[nobbygnome] 06/6/2020 13:51

>> dave

10 million shares??

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 10:41

10 million shares - now that's what I call a proper, exciting investment!!

[peachie 74] 06/6/2020 10:26

Welcome back NY Boy. I was beginning to think you are actually Carl Sterritt after we hadn’t heard from you !!

Great points Nobby.