Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[daveboy1] 06/6/2020 08:56

Reading through all the data again, as I needed to refocus on why I invested here originally. It just reiterated the massive potential. Sky really is the limit in x years time. Facts speak for themselves and everything else is merely background noise. I need to remember that and stop micro managing! Good luck to all the patient!

[peachie 74] 05/6/2020 22:50

For you as an investor it’s a negative. I feel the same , but perhaps they really are after the BEST deal and not being steam rolled into a sub optimal deal.

I don’t think the BOD and main investors are taking their time on purpose !

The founder was the CEO btw. He only left once !!! :)) And him and Tim sound like best mates !

[best1467] 05/6/2020 11:43

A deal will be done but it's a negative how long it's taking along with the H2H Debacle and the Founder and CEO departing.
The current CEO stated earlier this year a deal in first half of the year now we have by the end of summer I just hope when it arrives it's a suitable partner who can fully exploit the massive potential I'm slightly more interested in Nordgines sales growth in the last 3 months at the moment

[borromini1] 05/6/2020 11:12

EKCS - thanks for your reply, I may be wrong.

The interest in the H2H analysis is in the 0 to 12 weeks period and how that competes with the proven beneficial immediacy of Ferinject, the STX simplistic presentation bar chart shows a distinct difference in performance in the first period with Feraccru catching up later. In early February I discussed this with Tim and his response was that the detailed analysis paper to be published soon will provide much better insight into the early better than depicted performance shown by the presentation bar chart. The impression given was that the detailed analysis would have a positive impact on the equivalence performance in relation to Ferinject in the first twelve weeks. This and the article as a whole would further support the value and pricing strategy for Feraccru in all subsequent pricing negotiations, whether used by Norgine or in conjunction with the US deal.

That is why the error and delay is a shame and has a broad range of consequences not fully recognised on this BB. Will it stop the US deal by the end of summer or by the end of 2020, probably not, will this and other delays drop the share price from 180 GBX to 100 GBX, yes.

[nobbygnome] 05/6/2020 09:55

>> shandy

I agree with regard to the reference to Summer 2020. They didn't have to put that so it's very revealing IMHO!

[ekcs] 05/6/2020 09:51

@borromini1: With your definitive statements it sounds like you're actually in the know.

If you study the various presentations/publications on the H2H data (UEGW 19, ECCO 20 etc...) critically the data presented goes out to 52 weeks. The project the company seems to be undertaking, listening to the CEO, is specifically relooking at the 12 week timepoint. Nobody has ever or is currently contesting that the ITT population just missed the p<0.05 target (and that will not and cannot change) and that further to the March 20 PR, unfortunately that (technically) gives the study a negative result compared to the March 19 statement.

However iron deficiency is a chronic disease caused by age and lifestyle-related chronic diseases, e.g. CHRONIC kidney disease, CHRONIC heart failure, crohn's and colitis etc.... Therefore the long term data is likely where the real diamonds are in the H2H dataset and that data seemingly is not remotely being challenged (why would it be as it is observational and never subject to prospective statistical analysis according to the company).

I guess they may have to make allowances in the warranties a 3rd party might be wanting in a deal structure to accommodate any further -ve findings in the project they are undertaking, but One would imagine they are just as likely to ID additional +ve findings in that project.

Unless One is on the inside One doesn't know how long this US deal 'piece of string' is, but it is clear that such negotiations are complex and lengthy. In presentations past the former CEO said they worked on the China deal (the huge potential value of which simply has not been appreciated or recognised in the SP) for almost a year if I remember correctly.

In his presentation last night the CEO (who seems like a pretty conservative guy when you watch and listen to his numerous past presentations) was fairly definitive and positive about the likelihood of a US deal. He'd be a fool to be so positive if he didn't have the information to back it up and give him the confidence to say what he said so clearly in answer to a specific question.

DYOR... there's plenty of information out there from covering analysts as well as the company's own pronouncements.

[shandypants2] 05/6/2020 09:35

Borromini i think you are one of the most negative posters i have ever read. Do you actually hold STX stock? Always remember your active iron post just before FDA approval (guessing you found that via Amazon).

The H2H results are already known, this review is clearly to get some independent verification - the results between weeks 12 and 52 weeks speak for themselves. Feraccru is non inferior to IV. H2H wasn't used in FDA approval so will not stop or delay a US deal.

The presentation states US deal summer of 2020. They could have been more conservative and said H2, they didn't.

[borromini1] 05/6/2020 09:25

Nobby - the complexity of the task has and will delay the US deal, the H2H error is only one factor of many to contribute to that delay.

[nobbygnome] 05/6/2020 09:20

The negative nonsense is implying this will cause a delay to the deal. The deal may or may not come quickly but waiting for the H2H analysis will not be the reason!

[daveboy1] 05/6/2020 08:43

Day 3 of same pattern. Will it do anything different...

[peachie 74] 04/6/2020 22:40

He has never related those two things together. Ever

[borromini1] 04/6/2020 22:17

The H2H analysis will help optimise the deal value STX deem justified from the US commercialisation partner, Tim keeps saying that due to the extensive patent period taking a bit longer to get the right deal is the optimum approach.

What is negative about that?

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 21:25

Usual negative nonsense from Borromini. That analysis will not hold up the deal because as cranky man says that trial has not been submitted to the US regulators so can't be discussed by the reps. It will be used to get the health ecomics data which can be presented at conferences and discussed by MSLs but that definitely doesn't need to be part of the deal.

Complete and utter nonsense as usual...

[fanramptastic mate] 04/6/2020 21:11

thanks for the feedback.

fanny

[crankyman] 04/6/2020 21:09

Thanks for all the briefing.
Regarding the H2H it can’t be used in the US to communicate with doctors because the law doesn’t allow trials not mentioned in the label to be used in medical communication.
We all knew the result of this trial - before the comms fumble. It failed on the ITT. Even then the PP outcome was trending poorer. But so what? These patients were failures on oral before. It’s a good result to get what they got. But anyway- who cares? This is not going to make a deal or break it. What is a worry is the low share kills a capital raise. They really must sign that deal

[borromini1] 04/6/2020 20:55

H2H review will take another 2 months, medical journal publication presumably longer. Tim said the H2H analysis provides key economic insights for the case for Feraccru/Accrufer.

I doubt the US commercialisation deal will be finalised until the detail of the H2H can play a full role within the negotiations.

The idea is that the H2H detailed analysis will provide insight on Feraccru v Ferinject within the first twelve weeks, showing comparative performance against the one hit immediacy of Ferinject from first dosing.

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 20:23

Yes Tim is not the best presenter but having spoken to him at length on a number of occasions he is a genuine guy. Rather someone like that than a slimey toe rag extrovert CEO whom you can't trust as far as you can kick them!

[frrinvest] 04/6/2020 20:06

Tim is not exactly a polished performer which is typical of all CFOs which he was before becoming a CEO. Chances of deal "high", he said, very confident about H2H and the market in China.

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 19:20

And yes he said the upfront would be 'substantial'. I think that was the word he used!

[nobbygnome] 04/6/2020 19:19

Yes I was reassured after the presentation. Very important that they are looking to license to just one company which may then sublicense. Previously it seemed to me their strategy was not clear as what their approach was. And on the slide it said the deal would be concluded in the Summer which is very promising.

Overall a very good presentation!

[peachie 74] 04/6/2020 19:17

Im sure he insinuated the upfront US payment will be large...I think... I will re watch tomorrow

[peachie 74] 04/6/2020 19:14

Good presentation.
Main points.....

US deal will most probably be with 1 company, and that company may sub license. Over 100 companies were interested and considered.
Very strong likelihood deal done this year. ( Hopefully next week eh !?)( obviously limited to what he can say)

Relationship with Carl still good. Tim known him since pre Shield days.

Tim has become more and more of the belief that the H2H holds loads of great results to use moving forward in deals. Review results inside 2 months.

ASK moving forward for phase 3 trials .....China massive market

One of Board members ( can't remember name ) vast US experience

Will be more, but a snap shot for those interested. Video will be available on Proactive