Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[best1467] 12/9/2019 16:59

Would agree and have stated They had their backs against the wall at the time of the Nordgine deal they needed cash they had a limited label they didn’t have the game changing study results proving none inferiority to Ferrinject
I’m not sure on the costs of the China p3 trial also what the approach will be it may depend on if they have secured the US deal with sizeable upfront for current cash needs.If that was the case they may go for an higher percentage of royalties so a more beneficial deal for the long term but would still expect Minimum £10Million
Ref the investor evening they had stated no new Material information would be made available so that’s what we got

[crankyman] 12/9/2019 16:20

I’m very confident my ravings will move the market

[machinist] 12/9/2019 15:35

The same with me peachie, Negotiated Order, bought a few yesterday with no problem.

[ny boy] 12/9/2019 15:31

Cranky, you still peddling negatives to get in cheaper. Next you probably tell us of an impending cash raise lol!

[peachie 74] 12/9/2019 14:25

Can’t buy at all online without ordering. Even 10 shares. A few buys and we are up again

[crankyman] 12/9/2019 14:20

It won’t make $600 million a year in China. Well it probably won’t. But £5 million is really chicken feed and I’d be disappointed if they settled for that kind of money at this stage.

[nobbygnome] 12/9/2019 14:05

More than happy to be proved wrong but I think you can just build false expectations by predicting such large numbers.

[nobbygnome] 12/9/2019 12:15

Errrr Norgine only paid £11 million for the drug when it was already approved and ready to be marketed in Europe. In China it is years away from being marketed plus there is the cost of the phase III. I guess you can argue about the relative size of the markets but they are probably similar in size. So £5-10 million seems reasonable to me.....

[deeppockets] 12/9/2019 12:09

Wonder whether people who see any announcement as being several weeks away have sold to use it elsewhere and come back in October? AIM is full of short term traders!

[crankyman] 12/9/2019 12:07

£5 million (!?) Id consider that be taken to the cleaners. That’s a rounding error for BD departments. They deal in $50 million increments. I’m putting this at the lowest level.

[nobbygnome] 12/9/2019 11:37

I doubt very much they would get £30 million. I agree with dansjhall that we should expect a relatively low amount and I would guess £5-10 million. Still good cashflow for STX.

I wonder what caused the flood of sells this morning; I can't believe it was the presentation last night. I picked up a few more by spreadbet when the price was 183p but am looking to buy a bigger chunk at some stage. My guess for a US deal is before the end of November....but it really is a guess. Originally before approval Carl was very bullish about getting a quick deal but he seems to have backed off a little now. Perhaps the broader label has attracted in a few more companies and so the whole process has become a little more complicated. Having been involved in these sorts of circumstances when I was working in Pharma, when it is a seller's market as it here, I don't see why it should take that long. However, they have said there are some big Pharmas in the queue and they never make decisions quickly. I think STX want to sign a big company so this could also explain the delay.

[crankyman] 12/9/2019 11:22

Iron deficiency is very common in China and the market is largely self pay. I think that, of any product, Feraccru is cheap enough to be a huge opportunity there. I’m guess the cost of a phase III would be relatively low. It’s got to be below £10 million. I think the Chinese partner would still need pay £30million upfront- I’d guess

[dansjhall] 12/9/2019 10:52

What’s peoples guesses on when US deal will be signed? I’m thinking late Oct /Early Nov now. But pure speculation.

Looking at the presentations US and EU are the major markets. China seems a small prize at the moment. Would think the China deal upfronts will be small with costs for trials being covered the main factor in the upfront negotiations. Thoughts?

[ny boy] 12/9/2019 08:40

I should be able to attend that one, few sellers emerging, usually mugging exercise.

Will wait to see if I can add lower.

[nobbygnome] 12/9/2019 07:31

No I was elsewhere last night. I will be going to the Proactive presentation in early October.

[2theduke] 12/9/2019 07:19

Thanks, yes I’ve read it now and there is little new information.
The increased focus and analysis on the market size via ferrinject is helpful.
The progress on the us and China deal looks slower than I had though, still making a short list albeit still sticking with h2 for an announcement.
Interesting to open with the broker valuations, it really shows the variation and bemusing approaches.
I don’t think this would put anyone off stx, but it is hardly a reason for someone to go running to by it like you say.
Hopefully ferinject will be along to buy stx soon (!)imo

[ny boy] 11/9/2019 23:58

Shield Therapeutics's revenue is expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.

Shield Therapeutics's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.

Shield Therapeutics's revenue growth is expected to exceed the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.

Shield Therapeutics's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.

Shield Therapeutics's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 1.2%.

[ny boy] 11/9/2019 23:36

Nobby, did you get to the presentation this evening?

Nice 30k & 55k buy @ 190p!

[crankyman] 11/9/2019 22:17

Reading the presentation, it says nothing I didn't already know. We got more insight back when the FDA label was granted especially on the type of company they are going to be looking for. They said they need about £30 million to do paediatric plus P20. They will need to get that from the up fronts plus they will need cash for ongoing expenses until the royalties flow. So that means they'll need at least £50 million from both upfronts. Makes sense. Im not sure that you would invest based on this if you haven't done so already

[ny boy] 11/9/2019 08:42

Buyers should step in after tonight’s first investor presentation.

An exciting few months ahead this quarter. Tick tock until US commercialization deal!

[crankyman] 10/9/2019 18:06

I mean I get the nut allergy thing- even if that’s bad business to invest in. But grass pollen?

[crankyman] 10/9/2019 18:04

Immunotherapy for grass pollen. Got to be like hitting a nut with a pile driver. Immunotherapy is going to be expensive and really does anyone die of reaction to grass pollen? Gordon Bennett

[ih_116147] 10/9/2019 15:00

NEXT STX here...

Asit Biotech (ASIT.BR) Market cap €24 M / Cash €10 Million / Phase 3 readout in December for their immunotherapy treatment for grass pollen (€500 Million peak sales potential) = Potential 10+ BAGGER GEM ...........GLTA

Successful Pollen Season Confirms ASIT biotech On Track for Phase III Results of gp-ASIT+™ in December 2019
hxxps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/09/05/1911325/0/en/Successful-Pollen-Season-Confirms-ASIT-biotech-On-Track-for-Phase-III-Results-of-gp-ASIT-in-December-2019.html