Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[crankyman] 08/8/2019 11:12

Directly addressing the exact questions. I think it’s great they’ve done that. They’re a smart group of guys. Not arrogant. Up front with the information. Responsive. Hats off for that.

[crankyman] 08/8/2019 11:09

Well I never

[borromini1] 08/8/2019 10:44

Tim Watts CFO on Vox answering cranky’s questions on secondary/primary care ...



No sign of analyst meeting audio yet.

[growthinvestor2001] 08/8/2019 10:13

At what point to top up - seems to be steadily dropping off - looks like people redeploying capital elsewhere although timing a buy back into Shield in time for the next RNS is risky...

[crankyman] 08/8/2019 08:45

Thank you Nobby. I’ll take that.
$250 a month is a lot of money. It’s greedy and it doesn’t understand the price elasticity of demand. You don’t make more money, you make less. You sell two million packs a month at $50 a pack you make more than selling 100,000 at $250. If intolerance of oral iron is truly a problem, that is achievable. If it’s not, there’s no rationale anyway.

[nobbygnome] 08/8/2019 07:44

He is not a shorter. He has made some good albeit sometimes slightly over zealous points all the way through.

[best1467] 08/8/2019 07:33

My reading is different it’s a starting point then primary care as for the concept of high cost oral not working how can it be high cost when it’s competing against an intravenous alternative which as you should and hopefully know is more expensive.

[crankyman] 07/8/2019 23:37

Yeah right

[peachie 74] 07/8/2019 22:26

“Significant growth “....

Obviously not taken off like wild fire.

Please short in an obvious fashion , not covering it in a concerned manner as though you are a worried holder crankyman.
If your worried, go concern yourself with a share you feel positive about.

Don’t spin facts into your own agenda

[peachie 74] 07/8/2019 22:22

I smell a shorter.

[crankyman] 07/8/2019 21:30

I think that a company that focuses on speciality care is a totally different beast to a primary care company and the deal structure would also be different. In a primary care deal, Shield might get 30% while in a speciality care business, they would get closer to 50%, maybe even 60%. Obviously, it depends on how much the partner has to spend to generate the sales. It could be that US partners just don't see the Shield concept of a high cost premium oral working in the US in a speciality care setting. It certainly has not taken off like wild fire in Europe so far. Sorry to be a downer, but I just think there should be a change of strategy to optimise this brand's potential. I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

[best1467] 07/8/2019 17:49

The comment was I think they would concentrate on specialty care as were the best place to focus from a clinical perspective and once proven from that point they could then branch out to the less serious iron disorders with the greater potential number of patients.
I don’t normally like to comment on personal share purchases but have been adding and will continue to do so if it continues to drift lower

[crankyman] 07/8/2019 17:34

60 million Americans take a supplement containing iron

[ny boy] 07/8/2019 16:46

No idea how I got 158p but more luck really I guess but very happy

[crankyman] 07/8/2019 16:42

I think the US business is a chance for a complete reset of the place in therapy and potential for this product. The current numbers are extremely weak and, perhaps, justify the share price I’m hoping that the thinking of management to focus on speciality care doesn’t cramp the ambition of the US partner by virtue of their selection, but we’ll see.

[ny boy] 07/8/2019 15:58

hasherto, yes a safe haven during troubled times

Most of the risk has gone..so when you see these pull backs..it’s a buy in my books? Dyor as usual

Looking for 225/250p on commercialization

[ny boy] 07/8/2019 15:46

Well I added another lot @ 158p, happy with the share price opportunity

[borromini1] 07/8/2019 11:01

Edison expectation for STX 2019 revenue = 3.14m GBP
STX H1 2019 revenue = 2.6m GBP (includes milestone payments)

STX H2 2019 revenue expectation = 0.54m GBP or more (pack sales only)
Should be easily beaten.

Edison current valuation 273m GBP or share price 231p.

[hashertu] 07/8/2019 10:42

I thought it a very confident half year report.
Cash runway until late 2020, with a high probability it will extend beyond that.
With such large markets to aim for, that are not going away anytime soon, I think STX is better placed than most to weather any Brexit/trade war turbulence to come.
I'm sticking with them.

[borromini1] 07/8/2019 10:01

Nobby - Just picking out sales related items in the report that go towards explaining the STX pack sales revenue level to date and setting expectations for H2 2019.

My holdings in STX are currently minor, prior to FDA approval plenty of others were expounding the positive arguments I merely balanced those by noting more negative factors.

[crankyman] 07/8/2019 09:55

Assuming all the sales are in Germany I’m going to assume yearly turnover of £3 million in Germany. In five years that could be £30 million being generous. Assuming they get a decent price at in the rest of the EU 5 that’s about £120 million in European revenues. It’s not what I think makes sense for the drug. I’d cut the price and pile up the sales. This drug could swallow a huge slice of the OTC iron market but that’s always an option for the future

[nobbygnome] 07/8/2019 09:41

So you have now bought in borromini as you have suddenly turned positive. My personal opinion is that the price will drift back a little now as the chances are there will be no news for a couple of months.

And yes I have sold some as previously stated but I still have a substantial holding here.

[borromini1] 07/8/2019 09:38

In two months time Norgine will be fully tooled up sales wise to tackle the broad indications for Feraccru in Germany and England ...

Finally, an abstract on the AEGIS-H2H study has been accepted for oral presentation and publication at the United European Gastroenterology Week in October 2019. Publication of these results is significant as it will allow Norgine to use the non-inferiority results in their promotional activities for the first time.

[2theduke] 07/8/2019 09:10

So headlines are back on the website:
£500m t/o from ferracu and £200m t/o from PT20 p.a. Guess there will be some good insight to this on the presentation and they jumped the gun a bit putting this info up on the FDA decision day (after which they took it down again).