Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[ny boy] 20/8/2019 10:28

188p stream of trades are buys but showing red on L2

[ny boy] 20/8/2019 09:51

Usual gentle mugging of some sellers to fill buy orders, marked up after.. then the sellers thinking, not again wtf, we’re been mugged! Rinse & repeat all the way back to the 30p’s and every decade since.

[growthinvestor2001] 20/8/2019 09:45

nice to see the bid being raised and a slow and orderly move higher :-)

[luisfrg] 20/8/2019 08:36

🤞🏼 shouldnt be long now...

[ny boy] 20/8/2019 08:14

Let’s see if we can break the previous high soon and start closing above 200p

[ny boy] 19/8/2019 19:22

I doubt institutions will buy until after the US commercialisation deal

[crankyman] 19/8/2019 16:54

I’m more optimistic. I expect this company to grow a lot bigger. Remember Shire started with Calcichew.

[ny boy] 19/8/2019 15:52

I’m sticking to a commercialisation deal before the end of Q4, if it comes earlier fine, if not, doesn’t bother me, the share price will be bought by hungry investors if there are any small pull backs, like what has just happened 200p to 156p, this dip has been quickly bought, either by existing investors wanting more at a good price or just new investors happy to climb onboard, 250p’sh on commercialisation deal announcement is my price forecast, could be higher but it will just be a new leg up, further rises will be down to interest Shield attracts and progress on European and US sales and institutional interest, finally an end take out bid 450p+ over the next few years.

[crankyman] 19/8/2019 15:14

So minimum £50 million

[crankyman] 19/8/2019 15:12

I share your confidence. Just some factual corrections. Norgine pay 25% up to a threshold then 40%. That’s a good deal for Norgine. However, I think it makes sense to reverse it for the US. The royalty on the low volume sales should be higher and it should fall as volume rises to pay for greater sales and marketing spend. As for up front, I’m not bothered as long as it covers cash needs for 5 years and the pipeline research and development costs

[best1467] 19/8/2019 15:01

My guess and it only a guess ref substantial director purchase The CEO as commented several times about partner having SKin in the game as we know they are in discussion with several interested parties and I would imagine they have a reasonable idea of the Scope of deal achievable.
On that basis he is looking at a upfront payment of around 40/50% of current valuation with royalties in the range of the current Nordgine deal that been the case is £1.78 investment is a bargain.
As outside investors we take a look at the potential of the drug the history of past licensing deals and for me the most important fact is the Nordgine deal because at the time this company had its back against the wall to a point they had failed through lack of sales resources they at the time had a restricted label were virtually out of cash Nordgine new all these facts yet Shield still pulled off £11 million upfront 40 /50% royalties and up £47 million potential milestones I think at that time to get that deal done was hats offf to them but I would just add that the CEO is a very impressive guy and gives me great confidence that now from a position of strength as we are now an impressive deal will be done.

[nobbygnome] 19/8/2019 14:23

Completely agree. The time frame of this sort of process cannot be determined. I doubt the company has any real clue as to the precise timing of the announcement of any deal.

[crankyman] 19/8/2019 14:17

Regarding the 2 month point of the Chairman’s share-dealing, that 60 day period relates only to the presentation of results. Outside that period, the Chairman can deal as long as he does not know price sensitive information not released to the market. I don’t think that the timing can imply a deal announced in mid October.

[ny boy] 19/8/2019 14:02

L2 has been strong all day.

[ny boy] 19/8/2019 13:06

crankyMan,

Yes they will have a load of money when the commercialisation deal is done but more importantly they choose the best partner to build revenues in the US

Difficult to buy more than a few thou without paying a premium to the offer price, should soon move up to test recent highs imo

[crankyman] 19/8/2019 11:32

It’s cheap to make like all small molecule generics. Oral iron works, if you can take it. What Feraccru has is evidence it works in patients that can’t tolerate oral iron in a disease which causes scarring of the intestinal wall - IBD. Furthermore, it’s noninferior to IV in that population. Data from meta analysis shows IV is better than oral iron on raising haemoglobin and oral iron shows poor quality of life outcomes. Having said all that it need a load of money behind it to sell it

[ny boy] 19/8/2019 11:03

Monty I have been confident since mid 30’s, it’s just they now have a broad label fda approval (definitely not easy to achieve!) when the commercialisation deal gets announced, then you can be sure Monty, albeit, you won’t be able to buy at today’s prices on that announcement imo

Buyers wanting decent quantities paying. 185p

Tick tock

[2theduke] 19/8/2019 11:03

@monty, this is all about the molecule the iron is encased in here, it reduces the complications that other 1p iron tablets have. That is the key here.

[deeppockets] 19/8/2019 10:55

The Directors buying pre the FDA decision would only have been about the Closed period. No one knew the result of the FDA until they announced it. the Chairman will know how negotiations are going with the partner so timing is important

[crankyman] 19/8/2019 10:39

Thanks for that. They must have a very good insight on the deal. £125000 is a hefty purchase. Sterritt and the Directors already have a lot of shares and options. On a related point and thinking about the exit point for Sterritt, he’s got about 9% of the company. Currently that’s worth about £19 million. Is he really going to sell out for £30 million less tax? He won’t get another chance to get into the big league. I see him targeting £100 million plus.

[montyhedge] 19/8/2019 10:35

Are you boys sure this is a big winner and a demand they reckon, I saw a TV programme about lack of iron, there are many products on the market, one product cost a penny a tablet.

[2theduke] 19/8/2019 10:22

So out of interest directors purchased in April 2019, c2 months before the FDA and probably the edge of their window of acquisition restrictions being a plc.
On a similar basis, the chairman purchase, points to cMid Oct for a potential announcement.
This is a diving posting as I'm a bit bored at my desk.

[ny boy] 19/8/2019 10:18

Difficult to buy in any decent quantities, left an order in 182p, still hasn’t been filled