Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[crankyman] 09/8/2019 09:40

£500 million peak sales in year 5 values the company at £10 a share for 10 years . Over 14 years, that’s £15 a share. It’s not risk adjusted but also ignores any ongoing pipeline value.

[crankyman] 09/8/2019 09:32

£3 values that revenue stream at £350m Playing around with peak sales assumptions and discount rates, I make that as implying peak global sales of around £150 million and assume Shield gets a royalty of 40% of that over 10 years(not 15). Shield are saying on their website global peak sales of £500 million. £3 is a fire sale price.

[crankyman] 09/8/2019 09:14

I think takeover only works if the company taking over can in some way create value where none exists. Shield is a holding company for Feraccru. There’s no fat to cut. No synergies. It’s a revenue stream. Once those deals are signed, you have third parties with property rights. A takeover would only be attractive to a potential US partner to grab all the revenues from their efforts. It could even happen in reverse. But the fact that the product is licensed out removes any other bidders not willing to pay 20x the expected earnings. Existing shareholders would be crazy to sell out now when earnings are about to take off.

[best1467] 09/8/2019 09:08

Interesting snippet from the Presentation The cost of the Phase 111 Trail for PT20 I THINK IT IS was around $20 $25 MILLION which will be covered by the signing on payment so we can be reasonably confident of north of that amount which you would expect.
I have to say I am very impressesd with the CEO and as he pointed out the deal at the time they struck with Nordigne with the limited DATA compared with now the fact that they had stuggled with limited resources to get meaningful uptake bodes very well for the US DEAL.
I AM Quietly confident of North of $50 million signing on fee and Milestones in the range of $200/ $250 Million with royalties in line with the current deal,he also briefly mentioned back in 2016 the share price was £1.50 and when you look at where we are today he felt the valuation had some way to go to mirror the major progress that as taken place as I have said the current valuation is crazy .

[ny boy] 09/8/2019 09:03

Edison research note yesterday 233p valuation, all these valuations are only approx guides , I am attracted to the strong management, the product and now the all important fda, broad label approval in the huge US market, not an easy feat.

[nobbygnome] 09/8/2019 08:56

Put it like this. If somebody offered you say £3 a share next week, would you be tempted to take it?

[nobbygnome] 09/8/2019 08:54

Which is a good point. The VC's large holding probably ensures a low ball offer can't succeed. However, everyone has a price especially in these turbulent times so of course it is possible. Note I don't say probable....

[2theduke] 09/8/2019 08:51

Hi Nobby,
A question for you on a takeover since to me this would seem a very sensible move for some players.
For example, Teva - they risk Ferinject competition, however for (say) £500m they can take over Shield and effectively moth ball it. (Note I'm just talking profit motive here, not social justice for a moment).

My questions however is, given a limited float of these shares, how would a buy out even work? I think only 30% of the share capital is actually listed...

[nobbygnome] 09/8/2019 08:47

We know there is going to be a number of companies scrambling to get the US license so it will be a very competitive situation and a seller's market. When it comes close to decision day that could be when a company strikes, if they don't think they are going to win.

[ny boy] 09/8/2019 08:40

My only concern is the stock is very attractive to a US pharma to gobble up before value has been achieved over the coming years say 450p+ £ near multi year lows, sitting duck I would say, hopefully, the board can fend off low ball offers in mid 200p’s

[ny boy] 09/8/2019 08:29

I have seen this pattern happen every decade since the 30p’s gentle to firm mugging of punters, most either looking for same day or very short term gains and worst still trading on credit, always ensure you have the funds to pay on settlement day or MM will pick pocket you lol

Play the long game here, risk has mostly dissipated, buy mini pull backs or add if you are an existing holder imo (dyor as usual)

Stock is tightly held and no huge sells coming through, for obvious reasons, in fact reasons to be very cheerful indeed!

[nobbygnome] 09/8/2019 08:25

>> borromini

Wrong as usual😜.....it looks like the price is going up a lot this morning!

[peachie 74] 09/8/2019 08:11

The weak PI holders who are taking profits have got to dry up soon surely. Buyers then realise they ain’t getting em cheaper
and up we go. Hopefully !
Can’t buy much online but can get a price and sell loads

[borromini1] 09/8/2019 07:55

Have all the sellers finished yet? Or is the share price going down again today? I guess it’s going up a bit.

[deeppockets] 08/8/2019 15:43

New incomes and upfront payments will allow them to develop the next asset too - which has not been factored in yet - all looking good.

[ny boy] 08/8/2019 15:27

There will be activity on or around of just after..

The 27th United European Gastroenterology Week, UEGW 2019 will be held in Barcelona, Spain between 19 - 23 October 2019.

Plenty of great things to look forward too, long term hold for me

[dansjhall] 08/8/2019 15:17

Doing some reading through ferinjects numbers the market is huge. Will take a while to realise but looking medium term you could realistically be looking at the range of 700m+ Sales. Your looking at a Market cap of 500m+ if sales start to grow in line with projections in say 2 -3years time. Conservatively. No doubt there will be some ups and downs along the way. Looking forward to a October-ish deal announcement. Until then it’s a hold and wait.

[ny boy] 08/8/2019 14:03

Buy 150’s, then a jump to 230p + on commercialisation deal end of year, then another hold until the eventual bidder, game of patience but now with a lot less risk, a nice eventual return from the early winter dark days of 30/40p’s

[ny boy] 08/8/2019 12:50

I just received a copy of Edison’s 233p valuation report, no brainier buying at current levels imo

[crankyman] 08/8/2019 12:12

Totally agree. If the question is about focus and enthusiasm, they can manage that with how the deal is structured. They would have smart guys on that.

[nobbygnome] 08/8/2019 11:33

Great interview. Two thoughts .

1. This drug is going to be massive....although it will take a while.
2. They will sign the US license with a big Pharma because of the likliehood of it becoming a primary care product.

I have sold nearly all my real shares at higher levels and am now increasing my spreadbet position as the price comes back. Couldn't be happier...

[ny boy] 08/8/2019 11:25

I have left a buy order in @ 148p, happy to add on these low summer volume moves.

MM’s will continue to mug a few short term traders, many maybe pa ic selling as they bought too high and have been trading on credit, I am happy to pick up a few of their shares.

Only other stock I am accumulating is (FUL),recent results were good and directors have been buying, just need to be patient like earlier this year

Nice day, quiet in London, off out for a while

[peachie 74] 08/8/2019 11:20

Fair point then mate. Statement retracted !