Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 19:17

IV iron market is valued at 1.8 billion USD
If that is a tiny minority , then we are in for a great ride

[crankyman] 03/7/2019 18:56

Anaphylactic reaction risk comes with any infusion. So does the risk of choking on a pill. It doesn’t stop people getting them. Perhaps it needs repeating that a tiny minority of patients with iron deficiency get IV. Trying to grab a portion of that market - which are largely chronically ill patients that are visiting hospitals anyway is foolish when there is a massive potential in primary care.

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 18:14

The market leading IV iron delivered FY18 in-market revenues of US$898mln in a global IV iron market valued at US$1.8bn. Vifor Pharma AG, a Switzerland-based company with a market capitalisation of US$8.5bn commercialises the market leading branded intravenous iron, Ferinject, known as Injectafer in US.

“We contend that Feraccru can command a high market share as well as branded pricing because of its convenience and, supported by emerging evidence from clinical studies, that it provides a long-term treatment for maintaining the body’s iron stores,” said Emma Ulker, analyst at Capital Network. “Its convenience is a very important differentiator as patients can take Feraccru at home, avoiding a hospital admission and the life-threatening risks of IV iron administration. Physicians report that the outcomes seen in clinical studies are reflected in real world use of Feraccru.”

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 17:51

Ha. I’m confused why people are selling. Perhaps following a trend and buying back cheaper. Risky because when this gets bought it moves rapidly.

Just to add the other vital point why Ferracru is a direct threat to IV , is that Fe IV administration carries a serious and potentially fatal risk of allergic reaction. Hence it’s need for hospital administration.
Even the most profit hungry US Doctor has to consider this , as do NHS providers

[nobbygnome] 03/7/2019 17:23

True. But I also would expect an increase in volume. As you can tell I am a little confused....which is not unusual!

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 17:17

Very low volumes though

[nobbygnome] 03/7/2019 15:54

Curious price movement. I wouldn’t expect sellers so far ahead of the FDA announcement. In fact I would expect punters looking to get in ahead of it or at least looking to trade it ahead of July27th.

And before anyone speculates about a leak, no-one will have a clue yet what is coming!

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 14:46

We will agree to disagree !!

Good luck all holders anyway.

[crankyman] 03/7/2019 14:08

Not all European and US health services are like the NHS. Often physicians are the only decision makers and they get paid extra to do infusions.
Oh and Feraccru is still heavily restricted in the UK NHS.

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 13:42

Ok. Lets say the NHS consultants I've discussed this with are wrong.

So your friendly NHS Hospital realises your needs,

So they sort

Your Anti TNF infusion

Off you go down the corridor to the Haematology department

IV Fe infusion sorted

Back in the lift and off to Oral medicine for the IBD mouth lesions treating

The NHS being so flexible.....

Might as well squeeze in a visit to the nutrition department for your 6 month review too!

Say that all happens.

Do you think the people who control the purse strings, the NHS fund managers and Consultants are not going to consider the fact that there is an oral alternative shown to be as effective as the considerably more expensive IV treatment ??

And as a patient would you rather IV infusion or tablet ??

Ferracru will be an alternative to IV.

[crankyman] 03/7/2019 11:42

Can you get your story straight? It’s “not a convenience store “ but “they don’t schedule”. Patients do schedule visits and they can get seen by a specialist and a 15 minute IV iron infusion and another treatment like infliximab in one visit.

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 11:28

It’s infliximab. An Anti TNF infusion.

They don’t schedule

[crankyman] 03/7/2019 11:18

People schedule their visits and treatments. The patients have iron infusions before or after other things like inliximab for IBD.

[peachie 74] 03/7/2019 10:28

Hospitals do not operate like that !!!!
It’s not a convenience store !

And Iron infusions IV are done secondary to Hb levels. Something that varies in time. You can’t just tag it onto other treatment !

[crankyman] 03/7/2019 10:05

*without a GP sales force

[crankyman] 03/7/2019 10:03

If you’re going to the hospital anyway to get an infusion for your CKD why not schedule an iron infusion as well? People with these diseases are on lots of tablets. They welcome lowering the tablet burden. IV is for chronically ill people. 95% of people with IDA are not getting IV. They take (or don’t take) oral iron. Just because IV is 50% of the market value doesn’t mean that Feraccru should target replacing IV. It’s for the 30% refractory to oral. That a much much bigger market. But you can’t get to them with a GP sales force. And you can’t have a GP sales force if you are Shield therapeutics - so you pretend it’s a “speciality medicine”. I’ve seen it a few times in these small firms.

[growthinvestor2001] 03/7/2019 09:51

I guess this ticking down in price on low volume over the past 2 weeks is investors being cautious, either selling out before the news (having already made a great deal of profit in the past year or so) or simply top slicing.

I was rather hoping it would run up as the news approached but looks either to not be happening or not happening yet.

[best1467] 03/7/2019 09:14

Comment referring to Feraccru not a threat to Iv is crazy If patients have the choice between going to hospital or taking a tablet giving the same if not slightly improved efficacy it’s a massive threat

[montyhedge] 02/7/2019 19:37

To me it's in the bag. Its just a question of how much money we will make.

[peachie 74] 02/7/2019 19:21

Ferracru is of course a threat to IV.

[nobbygnome] 02/7/2019 18:13

Ferracru (assuming it's approved) will sell enough to more than justify a valuation way higher than this. You pays your money and takes your chance! My professional assessment having worked in Pharma for 28 years is that there is a very low risk of the file being rejected....

Just IMHO though.....

[crankyman] 02/7/2019 17:18

The company did not recruit a large sales force. I think that’s what lies behind the positioning as an alternative to IV. I don’t think Vifor give a stuff about Feraccru. They’ve got their own focus. Feraccru is not a threat to IV. It’s got a place between oral and IV but it’s not going to stop patients that regularly visit the hospital going for IV

[maximus72] 02/7/2019 16:45

Montyhedge that is a very fair assessment and more or less in line with my own view. There seeems to have been a very poor strategy towards the marketing of Ferracru and the recruitment of a large sales team following the flotation did not really work. The partnership approach should have been the initial way forward. The competition selling the IV treatment were never going to let Shield just come and take their business away. I just need to see more detail of these new partners.

[montyhedge] 02/7/2019 14:23

Yes either 75p or 175p.