Shield Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[crankyman] 15/7/2019 09:18

BTW there is no published HAS appraisal of Ferinject- unless you can turn that up as well

[crankyman] 15/7/2019 09:17

I stand corrected. But those volumes per capita are consistent with Ferinject being effectively crushed by payers in France and the U.K.. I assume that happened through a patient cap in France

[borromini1] 15/7/2019 09:03

NY Boy - what short memory you have ...

NY Boy - 11 Jul 2019 - 19:00:26 - 472 of 479 :: LITIGATION CAPITAL MANAGEMENT - LIT
Like the look of these, hopefully if (STX) gets fda approval on or around 27 July, I will be flush with cash, I will definitely have a few of these, for a long term hold.

[borromini1] 15/7/2019 09:01

Crank - Vifor state Ferinject in France volume per capita 23, UK as 24. More population in France so probably bigger revenue from France than from UK.

Refer page 8 ...

[crankyman] 15/7/2019 08:46

Look it leaves a huge hole in the management of these patients in France but not ideal if you want to cruise through on the Ferinject head to head. Having said that the HAS would have to be extremely stubborn and ignorant to fail to see the value for the healthcare system and patients.

[ny boy] 15/7/2019 08:42

their

and no,for obvious reasons , why would I sell on an fda approval?
If that happens, it’s just the start of a big share price run over the coming years. All I am going to do is take life easy & go travelling, well that’s the plan!

[crankyman] 15/7/2019 08:40

Ferinject is not reimbursed or got a very poor price in France. No premium to venefer. AFAIK Vifor don’t book many sales in France.

[nobbygnome] 15/7/2019 08:39

What a bizarre way of looking at a company. A lot of shareholders will have bought recently so all of that is of absolutely no consequence and is certainly of no interest to me.

I can speculate a figure of say £200 million annual turnover (which I think the company has said) but I am not really sure that is of any use to anyone at this point.

[borromini1] 15/7/2019 08:28

Nobby - W Health LP, registered in the Bahamas and venture capitalists with a 48% shareholding, have effective control over acceptance of any take over bid, should it occur. who knows what their strategy or requirements are or will be?

Given STX’s stated policy of shareholder returns can we have a stab at the range for your reasonable percentage of the market for Feraccru and how long that percentage will take to build? From those figures we can get an idea of how long STX will take to pay back the £116 million taken from investors to date before investors overall start to make a profit.

Just trying to establish the case for new investors to buy at this 115p level. It seems the money has already been made by those buying in the big dip, not those joining in at this level.

Any comments on the big speed of delivery difference between Ferinject and Feraccru?

[borromini1] 15/7/2019 07:55

Crank - Ferinject launch date in France was 2011, what are you talking about? And what exactly are you watching?

Ferinject next launch countries are Japan H2 2019 and China 2021.

[nobbygnome] 15/7/2019 07:55

>> borromin

I am not quite sure what point you are trying to make. Ferracru is more tolerable than both oral iron and injected iron and cheaper overall than injected iron. There is no doubt it will take a reasonable % of the market. Exactly how much remains to be seen.

[borromini1] 15/7/2019 07:49

Crank - where in the Annual Report does Carl Sterritt say they will be resubmitting the economic case to the NHS as a matter of urgency?

[peachie 74] 15/7/2019 07:37

The Scottish policy ( in place before evidence available to prove Feraccru non inferior ) is in relation to IBD only

[crankyman] 15/7/2019 07:28

Frankly no one is going to lose sleep over Scotland. It’s France I’d be watching. There is no Ferinject in France. It’s not commercialised there. What the HAS make of this data package I don’t know. I think they will go for it but questions around that outcome.

[crankyman] 15/7/2019 07:23

I think a takeover short term is unlikely because the shares are 49% owned by a venture capital fund. I assume they will be needing £15 to sanction a sale. That’s a complete guess but no way they see for £3.

[peachie 74] 15/7/2019 07:22

Ha. I was just about to state that CrankyMan !

And the Ferinject submission is from 2011!!!!

[crankyman] 15/7/2019 07:18

If you look at the SMC decision you’ll see it was rejected because it didn’t establish non-inferiority to Ferinject. Since then they announced the outcome of a head to head study demonstrating that non inferior outcome. I expect Norgine will be doing a resubmission pretty soon to clean that up.

[borromini1] 15/7/2019 07:05

National funding/access decisions
Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) Decisions



Medicines advice ferric carboxymaltose (Ferinject)
Advice following a second resubmission ferric carboxymaltose (Ferinject®) is accepted for restricted use within NHS Scotland.

The NHS see the value in the rapid impact of Ferinject, up to 1000 mg of iron in one IV infusion or injection straight into the blood stream, but consider slow acting Feraccru far too expensive compared to alternatives.

Where are the sales of over 200 million packs just to pay back investors for the development costs to date going to come from? The US market is the same size as Europe and rest of world much smaller.

[nobbygnome] 15/7/2019 06:48

>> borromin

The most likely outcome is a takeover by the company which licenses the drug in the US. This may be in the very short term but more likely in a couple of years time when it is clear how well the drug is going to do.

Ferracru is currently only available in the U.K. and Germany of the larger countries (AOP are also selling it in Sweden and Finland) so not that many packs will have been sold. Other EU countries and Switzerland will come on stream next year as I understand it.

[borromini1] 15/7/2019 06:46

National funding/access decisions
Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) Decisions



The Scottish Medicines Consortium has advised (December 2016) that ferric maltol (Feraccru®) is not recommended for use within NHS Scotland for the treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in adults with inflammatory bowel disease as the economic case was not demonstrated.

How many packs have Norgine and AOP sold in H1 2019?

[borromini1] 14/7/2019 23:52

Best - trying to establish how STX’s stated policy of shareholder returns comes about, are you saying the dividend payout will be more than 5% of revenue? Or are you expecting a take over to realise your valuation? Some are selling before the FDA result to cash out gains since January, others like NY Boy are looking for a maximum sell price immediately after FDA approval.

Annual report states share capital as of 31 December 2018 as £116,426,000.
Most recent fundraise in June 2017 was £12.4 million at £1.50 per share. Lots of long term holders will be locked in waiting for the shareholder returns.
STX have to return £116m before investors overall make any money.
For starters how many packs have Norgine and AOP sold in H1 2019?

[best1467] 14/7/2019 21:45

Why do share holders need to recoup current share cost not sure what your thinking.
Biotechs are valued on anything from 7-12 times forward earnings so even if they reached 50% of your figures based on 7 times forward earnings you get a conservative valuation of around £500million

[ny boy] 14/7/2019 19:54

We are certainly gearing up for an exciting few weeks GLA

[borromini1] 14/7/2019 11:06

Any comments or suggested adjustments to the following calculations, edits will be applied as the comments roll in ...

Feraccru recommended dose and course duration = 2 capsules per day for twelve weeks.
List price of pack of 56 capsules of Feraccru = £47.50
Cost of recommended twelve week course of capsules per patient = £142.50

STX stated royalty on sales = 25% to 40%
Assuming 25%, STX revenue from one million full course sales = £35.625 million
Assuming dividend payment of 5% of revenue = £1.78 million per 3 million packs sold.
Current Market cap. of £135 million requires sales of 225 million packs of Feraccru over 15 years of dividend payments for shareholders to recoup current share cost.
STX state that Feraccru US patent runs out in 2035. Years to run = 15 years.
How long will it take to build up global sales to 15 million packs per year?

[peachie 74] 14/7/2019 10:03

From Pro active investors ...

Outwardly simple, but with clinically-proven equivalent efficacy to intravenous iron, Feraccru is an oral product absorbed in the gut. It is also an alternative for those unable to tolerate or unresponsive to first-line salt-based oral iron products. Such patients have the second-line option of intravenous iron, which is painful and inconvenient. So, Feraccru presents a much more convenient and potentially lower cost, safer alternative to intravenous iron, which needs to be administered in hospital because it always carries the risk of a severe and potentially fatal allergic reaction.

• Further news on commercialisation progress, publication of peer-reviewed Feraccru data from H2H study

• US PDUFA date 27 July (this is the deadline by which regulators must review new drugs)

• Initiation of a paediatric study in infants over one-month, starting in the second half of 2019

• News on next steps with PT20 including outcomes of ongoing reformulation work

• News on partnering in new geographies – notably China in next 12 months