Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Shanta Gold LSE:SHG London Ordinary Share GB00B0CGR828 ORD 0.01P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 3.625p 3.50p 3.75p 3.625p 3.625p 3.625p 780,364 07:56:01
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Mining 86.8 -3.5 -1.2 - 27.77

Shanta Gold Share Discussion Threads

Showing 32001 to 32025 of 32025 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
21/9/2017
07:18
You clearly live on a different planet ag.
redhill
20/9/2017
22:21
Redhill, I know that most of the staff to be laid off are contractors -- hence the inclusion of (end of contracts). There was no indication in the post that I was on about CAPEX of 12m in the quarter - all the figures quoted are clearly to the end of the year - the VAT and the laying off of the contractors and the capital payments on the loans. I account for the money coming in from sales by quoting the figure of difference between total costs (as taken from the last 5 consecutive 6 month periods) (increased by the extra regulation costs) less the present POG = about $100 (loss) per ounce. ---------- So my 'stupid assumptions with no real basis of fact' are: 1) the underlying costs will be about the same as they have been each 6 month period for the last 2.5 years. 2) there will be a cost associated with ending the contracts with the companies that employ of 30% of their present work force. 3) the VAT repayment owed will grow at the same average rate as stated for the last quoted 14 month period. 4) that the CAPEX will be the unrealistically low value that the Directors claim it will be. Seems a reasonable set of assumptions. -------------- Even allowing for a wide margin of error -- Shanta can not last 9 months. Probably will have to stop mining by Xmas.
augustusgloop
20/9/2017
21:17
I wondered why it had fallen.
redhill
20/9/2017
20:38
77t of paper gold dumped on the comex in 5 minutes. So obviously manipulated. Why anyone trades on that casino exchange leaves a lot to be explained.Cheers,Niels
nielsc
20/9/2017
19:02
ag You really are stupid and won't even back your calculations up with a short. You just make incredibly stupid assumptions with no real basis of fact. Most of the staff not required are contractors & not direct employees. Only 28 direct employees to be laid off. In addition to the cash at 30th June there will be an approx $13 million coming in from sales. The $12 million capex is for the whole of the half year and not just the quarter.
redhill
20/9/2017
17:04
Redtrend, Perhaps they were being truthful. If so - it makes the case for them going insolvent soon even stronger. At this rate - they will have an additional $5.5m of VAT repayments owed by the end of the year. Thus, their $13.8m cash on 30.06.2017 will have to pay for all the CAPEX ($12m stated), $5.5m of VAT waiting to be refunded, Lay-off costs of the 1/3 employees that are leaving (end of contracts), capital repayments due on their loans, and the $100 (or so) losses that they make for every ounce of gold they produce. TOTALLY STUFFED!
augustusgloop
20/9/2017
16:43
I know you may see nothing wrong with your own assertion, but it does not make what you say accurate up to 1H 2017: Interims 1H 2017 "No VAT was returned to Shanta during the Period. At the end of June 2017, US$13.6 million (converted from Tanzanian Shillings at 30 June 2017 closing rate) of VAT eligible receipts has been paid by the Company over the past 14 months. The last VAT refund was received for the period up to April 2016"
redtrend
20/9/2017
16:30
Redtrend: VAT receivable recorded in accounts was 31.12.2014 -- approx. nothing 31.12.2015 = $4.115m 31.12.2016 = $8.272m So - I see nothing at all wrong with my assertion that it accrued over about 2 years. Your assertion that it all accrued over the last 16 months seems to be an outright lie - by the value reported in the 2015 accounts. Or are you again claiming that the Auditors were lying?
augustusgloop
20/9/2017
16:06
To add some balance to cut through the usual blindly pessimistic view which has some real concerns, but is then peppered with completely false statements/ assumptions dressed up as fact Negatives: - Political & Legal Uncertainties in Tanzania. The increase in Royalties from 4% to 7% is factored into AISC already. More concerning is various disputes between the Government and Acacia, Petra Diamonds and others, impacting all investor sentiment across the board. Acacia is not a great case study as there is a lot of bad blood and history there specific to the company. - Longer term there are uncertainties regarding 16% Government "free-carry" interest in mining licenses and how/ if this will apply retrospectively. When SA instituted their Mining Charter in 2004 with very similar terms, it was negotiated on a case by case basis to retrospective operations and rarely fully implemented. - Shanta Net Debt. On a like for like basis, net debt went up a fair bit in 1H 2017 (circa $12m), as there was some $19m of Capex. Still have $12m Capex left to fund 2H 2017. Overall during the Capex Programme Net Debt has only increased by $10m from 2015 thru to now after $100m of spend (that is stripping out impact of cash from placings so it's like for like). If you completely write off the $15m VAT rebates, then net debt increased $24-25m. So vast majority funded by cashflow. - Requirement for $14m placing in June 17 as $14m VAT refunds had not been paid. $14m placing equated to a 30% dilution. Positives: - First underground commercial production achieved June 2017 on time. Singida Pilot Plant was supposed to achieve circa 8K oz this year, but put on hold due to cash constraints caused by VAT rebates not forthcoming. It is very good achievement Shanta have been able to maintain their 80K Oz production estimate for 2017 solely based on New Luika. - Finally coming to a long 3 years of $100m+ Capex Programme. Next 3yrs will only see circa $30m Capex in total on top of the AISC. This reduction is highlighted in last presentation with Gross Debt projections coming down dramatically and substantial reduction in Subcontractor Headcount. The reduction in workforce (mainly all Subcontractors) is linked to the decrease in Capital Project Activity. This has always been planned, was always the case when you could see the tapering off in Capex spend. It has nothing to do whatsoever with UG mine production activities as per the previous erroneous commentary. - Singida itself a major positive. 860K oz, the majority of this from only a couple “Gold Tree” ore bodies. There are nine identified ore bodies beginning at surface, so in future Singida could be massive. - New Luika: 820K Oz currently outside mine plan to be incorporated. If political climate improves, we also still have Helio on New Luika’s doorstep with 635K Oz, with over half near surface and open pit. Shanta is a bit of a punt at the moment and relatively binary investment based on whether political climate in Tanzania will worsen or get better. Most of the political uncertainty and non-payment of VAT rebates is pretty much baked into the SP, so any break of the deadlock in Acacia, Petra Diamonds and other disputes or payment of VAT would be massive. This will drag on until the political climate changes and support for Magufuli’s populist policies sours. For those who work in Tanzania or know people who work in Tanzania, this is beginning to occur but could take time. Unfortunately it will probably get worse before it gets better, such as Acacia being forced to place its mines on care and maintenance end of this month. Worse than us quibbling about Shanta is the long-term damage the Government is doing to investment, revenues, employment and growth across the country.
redtrend
20/9/2017
15:16
augustusgloop 20 Sep '17 - 14:54 - 25142 of 25143 Jasper - the VAT rate is 20% and the $15m was run up over a period of about 2 years. ----------------------------- About 2 years? The last VAT refund was received for the period up to April 2016 and USD 15m VAT rebate now due from last 16 months... So I guess 2yrs is in the realms of your usual exaggerations and factual accuracy
redtrend
20/9/2017
15:09
ag Their trade payables would be higher than normal due to the large capital expenditure programme. This is another reason why VAT outstanding is so high.I did read somewhere a few months ago however that the VAT audit was nearly completed but of course that could mean anything in Tanzania. The President has shut down another newspaper for two years for someone making remarks about him.He's confiscated some land that was going to be a sugar refinery and the Company is taking them to the international court of arbitration.Sooner or later he will bulldoze too far.
redhill
20/9/2017
14:54
Their trade payables at the end of June were about £2.5m higher than what I would have expected from historical averages. I expect that they were much higher on the 20th June (time of placing) - and that at least $5m was paid between the placing date and the H1 end accounts. Jasper - the VAT rate is 20% and the $15m was run up over a period of about 2 years.
augustusgloop
20/9/2017
14:40
It's low for a reason :-)
sleveen
20/9/2017
14:32
tomrob With approx $27 million in cash & cash generated this quarter i can only surmise that they holding off paying that little longer. Only $12 million of capex due this half year. Will get the cash position in a few weeks with the 3rd quarter update.
redhill
20/9/2017
14:19
Thanks for your thoughts on shanta guys i was invested some time ago and tempted to buy in now as so low
laptop15
20/9/2017
13:49
jasper2712 25137 "Where is the evidence for this statement. They must be paying a lot of their bills to run up a $15m VAT refund." Not sure what evidence you want to see here as there is no published record but I can assure you that Shanta are telling suppliers that they are unable to pay their bills and are citing the VAT issue as the cause.
tomrob
20/9/2017
13:06
"is not evidenced by their payment record with suppliers who are still being told that payments overdue by many, many months cannot be paid yet" Where is the evidence for this statement. They must be paying a lot of their bills to run up a $15m VAT refund. The drop in share price is due to the uncertainty of dealing in any African country at this moment in time. They seem to be of the same opinion as one another, some are just more extreme in their views, that their resources are being ripped off by the mining corporations. If they were to sort out the corruption this might solve a lot of their problems.
jasper2712
20/9/2017
11:56
REDHILL 25132 "There is also a large delay in the refunding of VAT payments owing to the company and this has amounted to some $15 million. Cash was extremely tight for a while but a rights issue to integrate Helios will have provided the necessary flexibility not to be a problem now." Still hopeful but to say cash tightness is behind them is not evidenced by their payment record with suppliers who are still being told that payments overdue by many, many months cannot be paid yet.
tomrob
20/9/2017
10:38
Shorts are too risky --- it is well known that the directors of many AIM companies are liars. But the share price rises every time they tell one of their little porkies. It later falls back - but shorts need to be replaced and you can get burnt even when 100% correct.
augustusgloop
20/9/2017
08:57
Well put your money where your mouth is ag and short them !
redhill
20/9/2017
08:16
That's the blindly optimistic view. In reality - the Tanzanian Govt want 16% of the company for free. There is little prospect in the near term that the VAT will be repaid. The debt trajectory will fall - because nobody will now lend them any money and they have to make their loan repayments. They are serial loss makers, who must now fund the completion of the underground mine from cash flow (and the $13.8m left from the placing on 30.06.2017). They are in such a tight position that the CEO got sacked, the Directors took a 15% salary cut and some have agreed to delay 50% of their salary payments. They would have been insolvent at the end of June - if not for an emergency $14m placing -- which surely only was filled because investors were assured by the 'fact' that Investec were willing to increase their loan from $40m to $50m and so must have done the necessary due diligence - we now know that this is not true. They are laying-off a third of their workforce - but say that this will not reduce production. ------------------------ Simple assessment = will not have the funds to complete the underground mine. Will be technically insolvent by the end of this year. Will be bust by June 2018 - unless the Tanzanian Govt make a full 100% reverse of their stated actions.
augustusgloop
19/9/2017
21:14
Laptop 15 Basically TZ government have increased royalties by 3%.( 2% extra + 1% clearing fee ) This is in effect an extra cost to Shanta of $3 million a year at present rates. Shanta have responded by cutting costs hoping to save some $5 million a year. There is also a large delay in the refunding of VAT payments owing to the company and this has amounted to some $15 million. Cash was extremely tight for a while but a rights issue to integrate Helios will have provided the necessary flexibility not to be a problem now. If you refer to the recent presentation on the website you will see that the present focus for the company is to reduce debt asap & create shareholder value. The underground mine capital expenditure is now almost completed and will taper off. Singida has been on hold for a while but you get the impression that this will be progressed shortly and a statement is due in the next quarter.
redhill
19/9/2017
13:41
Whats been happening here guys?? share price really low....is cashed up still? I see there seems to be legislation issues. Can someone give a a simple summary on the situation as I'm a bit confused with whats going on.
laptop15
13/9/2017
19:42
Tanzania: One word says it all - Avoid - This is now (imo) jsut a political play and I suspect none on this board have any idea as o the outcome of the current political grab.
pugugly
13/9/2017
18:25
Redhill, If the Tanzanian Govt had passed the legislation on the 19th of June rather than at the end of June - Shanta would have been effectively insolvent immediately. They raised $14m in a placing on the 20th June - which would not have been possible in the immediate aftermath of the legislation. On 30th June they had cash of $13.8m Thus, they survived this first scare by only 10 days. Unless the TG relent and release the VAT -- I can't see any possibility of SHG surviving a full year.
augustusgloop
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