Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 18/2/2020 21:35

Pogo looks a bit energetic for me. I may have to go for a stinker. Alfa was built yesterday, I'm told. Hoping a Monday car better than a Friday Job.

[captainfatcat] 18/2/2020 18:59

One of the fist tasks I had as a nipper was filling the side bouyance tanks of landing craft with ping pong balls. The idea being even when they were shot full of holes the ping pong balls would keep you afloat.

It took a lot of ping pong balls sacks and sacks full of them.

Ps FB I'm being tempted by a Pogo 30 or maybe even the Pogo 12,5. (boat)
How's the Alfa?

[scaff55] 18/2/2020 18:00

. Management are well aware of the 2 month cessation of production they perceived a couple of weeks ago and are no doubt fast tracking a solution. Now whats going to happen if they bring production back online earlier?
could not have put it better myself Mommor LSE.

[fardels bear] 18/2/2020 14:16

Have you copied it to tech team @ sqz?

[almsivi] 18/2/2020 13:51

A wee video showing how something as complicated as removing a corroded caisson can be done relatively simply & easily by thinking outside the box

[goblin99] 18/2/2020 13:05

The wise man was but wise not because he basked in his self importance, but that he was humble. When asked about his wisdom he smiled in the knowledge that although others assumed him to be such, he was but a piece in the jigsaw. Wisdom was not about predicting the future, rather accepting the past is history upon which a wise man may reflect.

[general george] 18/2/2020 09:21

Serica dropping off and rightly so I would think this ends up well below 100p. With capex required, downtime and gas prices at just over 20p a therm. The gas hedge expires end of Q1.

Sensible holders reduced at 130p+

[general george] 14/2/2020 14:43

Natgas is usually us natgas.
Show me where you short UK NAT gas......

[newkotb1] 14/2/2020 13:06

Futures market.

btw, LNG only makes up <10% of UK supply, NSCS provides appox >44% the rest from Europe. Norway is by far the largest supplier of UK imports, with Qatar providing the largest proportion of LNG.

[chestnuts] 14/2/2020 13:03

I dont know but you can short usa gas

[general george] 14/2/2020 12:50

So tell me how you short UK NAT gas?

[newkotb1] 14/2/2020 12:26

The big unknown for me is how Boris et al will support UK domestic supply and how we respond to imports with an eye on NBP and TTF. Strength of the pound will also be a massive influence as will the final trade deal around Brexit. My guess is Boris needs to support local supply, if nothing else other than for security independence.

[newkotb1] 14/2/2020 12:07

Frackers are in trouble, particularly the ones with debt to service / renew. UK NatGas is being shorted too, big time and these will be closing soon imo. Like I said, return to high 20's is on the cards.

[chestnuts] 14/2/2020 11:49

newkot

I sure you low gas prices are sustainable as the glut round the world is growing and growing, and in lots of cases its just a by product until its turned into LNG and then its worth something and since most modern countries have built LNG plants for ships to unload there gas in to it takes the pressure of the need to build massive storage for Natural Gas around the country.
If low prices prevail the dividend will be pulled.

I am expecting a bounce soon as shorters take profits

[newkotb1] 14/2/2020 11:30

Looking forward to dividend announcement and results soon together with the possibility of a move to main market .... (which may well be part of our next transformational deal) atb

[newkotb1] 14/2/2020 11:26

Next big deal is around the corner imo. As for gas price, our Opex is very good at $13, those with much higher should worry ie Centrica $19.80. At 20p/therm the gas price is un-sustainable, expect a return to high 20's. Our mix of 20/80 oil to gas combined with Q2 swaps and others in place until Q1 2021 and being added too is ideal for the moment, as all this will alter come our next transformational deal ... which gets closer by the day.

[general george] 14/2/2020 08:48

No worries Chesnuts

Tks for confirming the hedge position.

While Bruce is down, the hedge is expiring I assume. Ops

[chestnuts] 14/2/2020 08:27

General

I stand corrected , theirs a gap at 64p i have always thought it will go back to test this

[general george] 14/2/2020 08:13

Chesnuts,

Page 9 Jan 20 presentation.

'Serica purchased put options at 35p to cover 60% of the retained gas production, after net cash flow sharing, purchased from BP for 2018 and 2019 and 40% retained production for first half of 2020'

'Since then Sericas strategy has been to monitor the market in order to identify opportunities to increase/extend out hedging cover'

Then see the swap table. Note comment about counterparty compensation. Looks like this is not a hedge, as the difference in strike price and market price is compensated.

If so, 40% hedge runs out in coming months.

Happy to be corrected.

GG

[mr fed up] 14/2/2020 07:53

general george is more like corporal clott

[chestnuts] 13/2/2020 23:25

George

No i think they covered 60 % of production with puts right upto 2022

[chestnuts] 13/2/2020 21:54

Genral

You have forgot about the hedge