Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 28/3/2019 20:13

Yes, that sounds familiar. My geraniums are five years old so milder winters are now the norm rather than the exception. Apologies.

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2019 19:21

Done the search which seems to indicate that the chance of success of one of the two prospects being successful is 44% which is what I had in my head but perhaps didn't make clear. The odds of both being successful are much lower, i.e. .22 X .22 * 100 = 4.84% assuming one doesn't influence the other.

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2019 19:14

33%?
Probably about the same as the chance of geraniums making it through the winter lol but mine are nearly there.
Coat on already 😉

[fardels bear] 28/3/2019 19:12

No it's not that either. Search the thread for cos and you should find the last time it was discussed. I can't do it on this iPhone.

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2019 19:07

I may well be wrong DH as you're the one with the industry knowledge. So I presume you are saying it's 22% CoS overall rather than for each of the two prospects or have I misunderstood?

[fardels bear] 28/3/2019 17:33

We had this discussion on probability some weeks ago and we concluded that you can't simply add two probabilities together like that. We all thought you then had to divide by the number of iterations to the sum but then somebody even cleverer came along and told us we were all wrong and the correct answer was somewhere in between. But I can't remember who the clever person was.

[dunderheed] 28/3/2019 16:12

Bounty now u know that ain't quite right matey!!

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2019 15:49

"Rowallan: HPHT exploration close to existing infrastructure The HPHT Rowallan prospect is located in the east of Block 22/19c in the Central North Sea and not far from an area of existing HPHT production. It sits 20km to the NNE of Total’s Culzean development, due on stream in 2019, while existing HPHT fields Shearwater, Erskine, Elgin, Franklin and Glenelg sit to the south of Culzean. The Rowallan exploration well is due to be drilled in Q318 and will be operated by Eni (40% WI), together with partners JX Nippon (25%), Mitsui (20%) and Serica (15%). Serica is already active in the area as operator of the Columbus gas condensate field (50% WI) to the east of Rowallan, and as a partner in Erskine (18% WI). Exhibit 12: Rowallan location map Exhibit 13: Rowallan prospect cross-section Source: Serica Energy Source: Serica Energy The well is targeting gas condensate in the Triassic Skagerrak and Middle Jurassic Pentland formations. The structure is a structural fault and dip-closed trap and is considered to be similar to and analogous with Culzean. Serica believes that it is optimally located to be charged from the direction of the Mungo and Monan oil fields to the east. Rowallan has been independently assessed to contain gross P50 resources of over 130mmboe. Technology has advanced for the drilling of HPHT wells, although it is more technically demanding than for a typical North Sea exploration well, particularly as the difference in these wells between pore pressure and fracture pressure is usually quite small, resulting in a narrow drilling window. A cost estimate for the well is not publicly available, although Serica is fully carried for the cost of the well. Success in Rowallan would de-risk the Dundonald and Sundrum prospects, which also sit in Block 22/19c."

[dunderheed] 28/3/2019 15:45

Mate a vsp shot "test?" is nothing. Just takes a few hours to a day max. That isn't a test as far as I am concerned imho of course.

[steelwatch] 28/3/2019 15:41

Dh - they have done permitting for a vertical seismic profile, but, until the next announcement, we'll have to wait and see.

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2019 15:36

Nothing new here but more on topic that geraniums ;)

[dunderheed] 28/3/2019 14:28

Are they definitely testing this well?
Does anyone know definitively?
It used to be the way to do it but then it went to not testing (with multi e logs etc) and come back later?

[steelwatch] 28/3/2019 13:42

rich - If TD is announced when hit, they may say something about gross pay and reservoir quality, if deemed worth proceeding to the testing phase. They won't get any flow rates until they are flow testing.

[reallyrich] 28/3/2019 13:26

Just re-watched the Mitch presentation. He said they expect the reservoir to be hit early April. Would they get flow rates then?

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2019 12:31

CFC, including the Winter 2019 UK gas price which never seems to get mentioned here or factored into calculations at 51.6p

[bountyhunter] 28/3/2019 11:16

And the US gas producer DGOC is going great guns today, ok they have just announced another earnings enhancing deal but to fund this there was a placing at 117p completed this morning. However the price is nicely above that already and still rising right now :)

[captainfatcat] 28/3/2019 10:07

Natural gas futures on the up again.

[fardels bear] 27/3/2019 21:37

I've never heard of the two eras you refer to. The Jurassic sediments can be very thick.

[steelwatch] 27/3/2019 21:36

Also worth mentioning for the benefit of casual passing readers, Serica's 15% share in the Rowallan well is fully carried.

[dunderheed] 27/3/2019 21:34

That's a nice theory upomega but unfortunately it don't work out that way!

I think they've still got another acquisition up their sleeves certainly over a 12 month time frame?

[upomega] 27/3/2019 21:11

One way to look at it is that statisticaly serica is due some luck with a drill. After all the last few wells haven't been of any use, so who knows this could be the one. The law of averages must be in Serica,s favour, One other point aren't they targeting two levels jurasiac and Durasac. So they must have reached target level on the jurassac by now

[bountyhunter] 27/3/2019 20:35

That's how I interpreted it. Success is certainly not a forgone conclusion with the odds admittedly on a duster, so I would expect that to be factored in!

[quemaster] 27/3/2019 20:28

Is the Rowallan COS defiantly 22% for each of the 2 prospects? I remember this info being hard to find and think there was only one reference found.

[upomega] 27/3/2019 19:14

Personally I am now looking at Serica as a fairly safe hold for the next couple of years with little movement upwards this year unless Rowallan comes in. The biggest concern is that the market over reacts if its a duster. Bit of a dilemma really.

Very solid results with a good acquisition would offset any downside from Rowallan. Maybe the company is already thinking along those lines. What has stuck out to me is the lack of institional buying considering the recent analysis meeting.