Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[captainfatcat] 27/3/2019 14:54

8-) Every little helps

On another note I wonder what the criteria is required to be met for the gas hedges to kick in? I was thinking some kind of weighted weekly/monthly average bit like the pensioners cold fuel allowance.

[dunderheed] 27/3/2019 13:58

Guys it's still pretty low - come on!
I appreciated GG's commentary as don't think it impacts the share price at all.
I think he will be very lucky to buy in around 90p though?

[bountyhunter] 27/3/2019 13:33

Yes, in case anyone has missed it UK Natural Gas is up nearly 4% today.

[captainfatcat] 27/3/2019 13:31

Brent and gas both moving up strongly today 8-)

[bountyhunter] 27/3/2019 12:41

Yes Dh as Tuesday 10 April last year, assuming they like Tuesdays then maybe Tuesday 9 April this year?

[bountyhunter] 27/3/2019 12:37

let's not prompt that guy Fb! ;-)

[dunderheed] 27/3/2019 11:53

Ah great thanks very much bounty.
So 'probably' in the next couple of weeks?
Look at us, the three amigos - all talking to "ourself"!!

[fardels bear] 27/3/2019 11:47

True, but last year they had nowt else to do, did they?

Just as long as they don't issue them on FRIDAY.

[bountyhunter] 27/3/2019 11:20

Last year we received a notification of the results date on this exact date...

[chestnuts] 27/3/2019 08:21

Gas up this am for a change

[captainfatcat] 26/3/2019 18:09

Yes been through the wringer on a few of those as well.

[steelwatch] 26/3/2019 18:04

I hope, if it's a good 'un, ENI embargoes news until after flow testing. I've seen all too many false dawns in my time.

[captainfatcat] 26/3/2019 17:53

Hopefully they are seeing some Hydrocarbon indicators in the mud whilst drilling.

[fardels bear] 26/3/2019 16:49

Ah but the lads think it might only take 120 days you see.

[manicat] 26/3/2019 16:47

no results soon from rowallan only 85 days into a 140 day drill

[captainfatcat] 26/3/2019 13:03

Good to see some chunky buys showing

Row well results due soon....

[chestnuts] 25/3/2019 23:43

Bounty

You are correct but its only 20% of production

[bountyhunter] 25/3/2019 23:27

>> 3 Yes they have 50% in stead of 40 % but the price of oil falling

No the price of Brent has been rising over the last few months not falling.

[chestnuts] 25/3/2019 23:06

Bounty

Is 1 the same as 6

2 Yes they can reduce opex probably by a $ or so

3 Yes they have 50% in stead of 40 % but the price of oil falling and the price of gas collapsing as eroded this completely and are probably down by 20% in revenue and its decreasing as the gas price falls.

4 Rowallian will probably be good but it wont effect production for some time but price will most likely spike and fall back

5 Wont effect price till production starts

6 same as 1

7 This is true but wont happen for some yrs

8 But this also wont effect price for some yrs

9 So they will have to put a percentage of the income into escrow each yr

10 Erskin was a fantastic buy and the reserves are still there and this will probably be the same for BKR

11 Erskin producing 3.5k bopd a bit disappointed with this considering the new pipe line so maybe the pressure as dropped and will fall faster than first thought

12 I think this is because every one knew Erskin was very problamatic so when it produced for 6 months with out any problems it was a pleasant surprise, after all every one knows BKR volume of gas and price.


13 Well we know this and we have all seen the gas price fall so maybe not best advert at the moment

14 Definatly Cash rich and no debt , but this is already in the price

15 Yes they could be buying something and we will have to wait and see

[fardels bear] 25/3/2019 22:50

What on earth are you talking about?

[upomega] 25/3/2019 22:45

One concerned. Rockrose,iog and bp.

I feel we have been abandoned.serica and its holders took all the risk with Bruce,trump.

So what's happened. Political me thinks

[bountyhunter] 25/3/2019 22:27

It's not all about the gas price today as the gas price varies and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ in 2019 so that's a 25% increase on 2018.
For 2020 that's then a 60% share so a 50% increase on 2018 revenue due to SQZ (more when point 1 is taken into account)

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April with TD early May. In the event of success, there is additional upside potential provided by the nearby Dundonald and Sundrum prospects, which are geologically similar to Rowallan. The Rowallan prospect may also extend onto Serica's recently awarded 30(th) Round blocks directly to the south.

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Erskine now producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Post Erskine deal back in 2015 the share price did not fully reflect the acquisition until production figures were released 6 months later, the same may be true of the BKR acquisition

13) Serica's production split is 80% gas / 20% oil

14) Cash rich / debt free

15) Looking for other accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 25/3/2019 22:27

It's not all about the gas price today as the gas price varies and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ in 2019 so that's a 25% increase on 2018.
For 2020 that's then a 60% share so a 50% increase on 2018 revenue due to SQZ (more when point 1 is taken into account)

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April with TD early May. In the event of success, there is additional upside potential provided by the nearby Dundonald and Sundrum prospects, which are geologically similar to Rowallan. The Rowallan prospect may also extend onto Serica's recently awarded 30(th) Round blocks directly to the south.

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Erskine now producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Post Erskine deal back in 2015 the share price did not fully reflect the acquisition until production figures were released 6 months later, the same may be true of the BKR acquisition

13) Serica's production split is 80% gas / 20% oil

14) Cash rich / debt free

15) Looking for other accretive deals