Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 21/3/2019 18:48

Good idea bh!

[bountyhunter] 21/3/2019 17:55

Just posted the 16 reasons to be cheerful over there although best to stick to this thread I think; maybe just stick the geranium posts over there lol.

[bountyhunter] 21/3/2019 17:52

It's not all about the gas price today as the gas price varies and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ in 2019 so that's a 25% increase on 2018.
For 2020 that's then a 60% share so a 50% increase on 2018 revenue due to SQZ (more when point 1 is taken into account)

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April with TD early May. In the event of success, there is additional upside potential provided by the nearby Dundonald and Sundrum prospects, which are geologically similar to Rowallan. The Rowallan prospect may also extend onto Serica's recently awarded 30(th) Round blocks directly to the south.

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Erskine now producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Post Erskine deal back in 2015 the share price did not fully reflect the acquisition until production figures were released 6 months later, the same may be true of the BKR acquisition

13) Serica's production split is 80% gas / 20% oil

14) Cash rich / debt free

15) Looking for other accretive deals

16) not to forget the Golden Cross on the chart:

[fardels bear] 21/3/2019 16:54

Guess who is still banging on about gas prices. Maybe we should instruct him in the niceties of geranium cuktivant and drown the git out.

[chestnuts] 21/3/2019 16:31

Looking good for UK consumers looks like Natural Gas prices are going alot lower, as to get to my low 30s as predicted but if it breaks this then 18p is on the cards, all the storage is taken now so no one wants gas at the moment as spring comes in and temperatures are rising, consumers gas bills are dropping as central heating is not needed.

[steelwatch] 20/3/2019 18:52

bh - correct. Necessary in case of emergency evacuation and for risks attached to helicopter flights visiting offshore platforms, rigs and FPSOs. Also to chase off passing vessels threatening to enter exclusion zones.

[bountyhunter] 20/3/2019 14:36

In the case of HUR there has been a safety vessel with the FPSO all throughout the HUR hookup so I would have thought with the Rowallan drill there could well also be a safety vessel all throughout the drill. Possibly replaced a previous standby safety vessel? It's about 1.5 km from the Ensco 121

[farmscan] 20/3/2019 14:16

I can't think of anything else Geranium based to say, but I see the Grampian Defiance (Standby Safety Vessel) is now in attendance at Rowallan, don't know if that is significant.

[farmscan] 20/3/2019 08:23

Well I hope I'm going to be happy with my recently purchased Geranium Pratense 'Plenum Violaceum'.

[nicnic1953] 20/3/2019 03:24

Well I'm happy to move on from geraniums and such! Let's jog on with serica !

[fardels bear] 19/3/2019 23:32

You wouldn't be happy with 63 to 130mmboe at Rowallan?

[nicnic1953] 19/3/2019 23:26

Well I'm happy for you to be right!!

[bountyhunter] 19/3/2019 21:06

Not unless it's another Ghawar.

[nicnic1953] 19/3/2019 18:24

So no bearing on rowallan ....

[steelwatch] 19/3/2019 18:14

The Abbot - about 130nm due North of Rowallan.

[manicat] 19/3/2019 17:14

only 80 days into the drilling and 60 more days to go it must be a complicated well to drill

[fardels bear] 19/3/2019 16:52

Bloody useless journos

[fardels bear] 19/3/2019 16:51

Assume they mean mmboe

[fardels bear] 19/3/2019 16:51

"Preliminary estimates place the size of the discovery between 63 and 132 thousand barrels of recoverable oil equivalent.Que?