Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fardels bear] 28/2/2019 15:32

Funny old game, shares.

[fardels bear] 28/2/2019 15:28

But not this time it would seem.

[chestnuts] 28/2/2019 15:09

fardel

As you can see the rising wedge is playing out, it broke through the trend line and whoosh now some times the share price will go back to test support of the line which will then look like an head and shoulders then whoosh down again but further next time

[obmuj] 28/2/2019 15:07

Total Voting Rights RNS then suddenly up 6-7%

Bit confused.

[fardels bear] 28/2/2019 13:08

I don't really give a tinkers cuss for traders.

[blueball] 28/2/2019 10:12

News next month serice holders.

[alotto] 28/2/2019 08:06

The question for investors is, what is the real value of Serica?
In my opinion over 200p. Volatility happens and it is a good thing for short term traders.

[descartes244238] 27/2/2019 22:10

There is a fib level around 115p which the price keeps bouncing around

[fardels bear] 27/2/2019 15:20

I'll lend you twenty grand on a 12.5% coupon. ;)

[almsivi] 27/2/2019 15:03

SP an absolute gift at these prices - if I had the available funds I'd be throwing it at this - especially with just under 5 weeks until the full-year results post-BKR.

I'll be especially interested to see what 3 months at +10% on BKR share looks like as well as what de-clogging the LOM_NEV pipeline has added to Erskine. There's no better way of extrapolating future value than seeing the cash in the bank.

[fardels bear] 27/2/2019 13:37

Bloody phones

[fardels bear] 27/2/2019 13:37

Sorry, don't know why I said that. I'm still buying and HMG pensions depth are deaf to my pleas for another three years

[nicnic1953] 27/2/2019 13:28

I don't think he's gloating...best of luck to the fella for calling the top..and indeed anyone else ! Just wish I could ...been here 3 years now from 10-11p days and happy to hold another 3 years apart from minor withdrawals to supplement new found oap pension,!

[slicethepie] 27/2/2019 13:14

The truth clearly hurts!

[bountyhunter] 27/2/2019 13:05

It's not all about the gas price today as the gas price varies and there is a floor, this is getting tedious, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ in 2019 so that's a 25% increase on 2018.
For 2020 that's then a 60% share so a 50% increase on 2018 revenue due to SQZ (more when point 1 is taken into account)

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April with TD early May. In the event of success, there is additional upside potential provided by the nearby Dundonald and Sundrum prospects, which are geologically similar to Rowallan. The Rowallan prospect may also extend onto Serica's recently awarded 30(th) Round blocks directly to the south.

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Erskine now producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Post Erskine deal back in 2015 the share price did not fully reflect the acquisition until production figures were released 6 months later, the same may be true of the BKR acquisition

13) Serica's production split is 80% gas / 20% oil

14) Looking for other accretive deals

[slicethepie] 27/2/2019 12:44

GG clearly loves gloating about his recent superior acumen, posting at every opportunity. I find it somewhat tedious.

[general george] 27/2/2019 12:25

Hi Marvelman,

I never encouraged anyone to sell. I agree long term will be a good investment.
Hopefully the gas price recovers well. If invested, I'd prefer production to be steady rather than to do R3 and go hell for leather. Don't want to get carried away for the next 3 years....

Thanks

GG

[fardels bear] 27/2/2019 11:59

I expect he'll be predicting a placing within a day or so - he does on every other thread.

[marvelman] 27/2/2019 11:54

Ross..surely it is long term value now...but the only issue for you then is your entry point

[marvelman] 27/2/2019 11:25

Quite incredible how sentiment changes in a heartbeat. One moment we are undervalued and next we are overvalued. I really have no appetite to trade this share as it would be no surprise to see another RRE like announcement from this forward looking BOD. I have to respect General George's posts calling this one though with very reasoned thoughts. I have not been brave enough to take the chance of being out during this relatively short dive in the share price and will stick to my longer term investment strategy...but well done General George even if it hurts to admit I have not been as on it as yourself.

[general george] 27/2/2019 11:14

Thanks KCR

[kcr69] 27/2/2019 11:09

Simple ma yes, exponential around 1.05 and weighted 112.5, hence why I said take your pick. Personally always give more credence to the weighted for obvious reasons.