Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 22:55

Added a 14th to the list as no.11 !

[dunderheed] 20/2/2019 22:44

R u buying some UJO FB - they are one of my certs*.











* to do a normal "Brammers"

[fardels bear] 20/2/2019 22:39

So, why am I trawling round junk microcap oily AIM minnows looking for a gem when we already have it here?

[dunderheed] 20/2/2019 22:34

Cheers bounty!

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 22:33

Also updated 3) to include 2020

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 22:28

Posted here for future reference, from last week's video presentation by Mitch Flegg (CEO) these are the points that struck me...

It's not all about the gas price today as the gas price varies and there is a floor, there are many other factors to consider such as:

1) BKR production increase planned from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) 2018 results only include one month of production from BKR and less than three months from Erskine. Remember too that from 40% in 2018 Serica gets 50% of cash-flow from the BKR fields in 2019, rising to 60% in 2020 and 100% after that.

4) Update re Serica's recently awarded 30(th) Round blocks directly to the south of Rowallan.

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning as SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced.

11) Erskine still producing ~3.5k bopd?

14) Cash balance as cash rich / debt free

15) Other accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 22:19

From the recent video presentation by Mitch Flegg (CEO) these are the points that struck me...

1) Planned BKR production increase from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ in 2019 so that's a 25% increase on 2018.
For 2020 that's then a 60% share so a 50% increase on 2018 revenue due to SQZ (more when point 1 is taken into account)

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Erskine now producing ~3.5k bopd

12) Post Erskine deal back in 2015 the share price did not fully reflect the acquisition until production figures were released 6 months later, the same may be true of the BKR acquisition.

13) Serica's production split is 80% gas / 20% oil

14) Looking for other accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 22:17

Ok here is the new inclusive list...

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 22:09

What is the current Erskine production and I'll include it? All I recall from the video is a few grey sections on the last few bars on the bar chart.

[fardels bear] 20/2/2019 22:02

I meant include the Erskine production in the figures. I'm sure it wasn't included in the 24k to 30k for last year. And we didn't have much from Erskine last year due to the waxing.

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 21:57

Erskine is included as no. 10 on the updated list

[fardels bear] 20/2/2019 21:50

I think you should include Erskine too.

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 21:41

I've updated the list to 12 points:

Just found time to watch the video, thanks for posting the link steel, a very positive presentation.
These are the points that struck me...

1) Planned BKR production increase from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ so that's a 25% increase on 2018

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) Production split stated as 80% gas / 20% oil

12) Looking for other accretive deals

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 21:31

Also Mitch stated the proportion of gas as 80% not 85%

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 21:28

Edited no 1) to show just BKR

[fardels bear] 20/2/2019 21:23

I was looking at it on my phone. Did those 2018 production averages include Erskine? Because I don't think they did...

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 21:06

Just found time to watch the video, thanks for posting the link steel, a very positive presentation.
These are the points that struck me...

1) Planned BKR production increase from around 24k boepd to ~30k yearly average

2) Lower opex cost reducing from current $18/b

3) From 40% to 50% share of BKR due to SQZ so that's a 25% increase on 2018

4) Rowallan drill on schedule should hit reservoir early April

5) Columbus development 2020 production 2021

6) R3 intervention should increase Rhum production significantly

7) BKR hub has capacity to handle increased production including from any nearby fields which may be developed by other companies which could increase revenues - BP did not pursue this opportunity for political reasons

8) Looking to extend life of BKR fields and so push back decommissioning - SQZ has lower overheads and is more focused on BKR than BP

9) Decommissioning costs - SQZ will pay 15% after taking into account HMRC's 50% contribution to the initial 30% liability

10) Erskine production restored, 3.2m barrels of oil originally forecast to be produced but 3m produced to date with new CPR indicating another 3m barrels still to be produced!

11) 80% gas / 20% oil

12) Looking for other accretive deals




What's not to like?!

[fanshaw] 20/2/2019 19:53

YES abbot keep them coming

[loafingchard] 20/2/2019 18:21

Thanks for the TA updates The Abbot , its appreciated. Good luck all regardless of the tea leaves .

[bountyhunter] 20/2/2019 17:53

Macbeth, I failed my GCE based on that!
I remember putting plenty of toil and trouble into it but
there must have been a witch marking it was my view! 😉

[fardels bear] 20/2/2019 17:42

"When shall we three meet againIn thunder, lightning, or in rain?"

[steelwatch] 20/2/2019 17:02

Nothing to quarrel about here.

[joestalin] 20/2/2019 16:20

do you have anything useful to add?

ditto

An RNS will add something useful. A graph will not.