Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 25/2/2019 08:43

Yes Dh re IOG the market doesn't know what to make of today's RNS is my view so difficult to accurately value ahead of possible joint venture?

[dunderheed] 25/2/2019 08:31

Agree GG and didn't have enough funds in RRE as had some more money set aside for that - but due to jobsworth f'ers was waiting 2 weeks for it to arrive - you never know let's see when they are relisted - what the price will be - maybe still some opportunity to buy some more.

I wonder if SQZ were putting their hat in for those assets - I don't personally think so but has whetted my appetite for potential further SQZ deals- as per the Mitch "hints"?

BH - that should more than compensate for IOG - but to tell you the truth I am heartened by their announcement this morning and may well buy a few more - especially if I can get them around the 8-10p mark. (I'd personally expected them to increase on that news release but it seems that they may drop?)
Much more of a gamble now and expect the NAV to half as well post farm down? IMHO.

[general george] 25/2/2019 08:11

Yes well done RRE holders. Although I think the Serica deal was much better, esp with decom costs derisked somewhat.

[dunderheed] 25/2/2019 07:45

They're bigger than serica now.

[bountyhunter] 25/2/2019 07:43

Checkout RRE which appears to have done a Serica!!!!

😀 ☺️ 😀 ☺️ 😀

[general george] 24/2/2019 16:57

Malcy says whatever u pay him to say...... Just ask Frontera investors....

[bountyhunter] 23/2/2019 14:59

I imagine he gets quite a few free meals though, however although he generally reiterates what's been said in RNS releases he sometimes adds a bit of background based on meetings with management so I usually read what he has to say, but don't expect to read many negatives!

[farmscan] 23/2/2019 14:11

Malcy doesn't invest in the shares he recommends on his blog.

[joestalin] 23/2/2019 11:33

If Malcy is so smart, how come he is still peddling his blog after all these years?

[fardels bear] 23/2/2019 07:19

Nice one. I see old cheerful banging off again in another place.

[chestnuts] 22/2/2019 23:55

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This example is very much like sqz pattern


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[bountyhunter] 22/2/2019 23:14

not sure why divide by two if each target has it's own CoS of 22%, surely that's twice the CoS of a single target at 22%, not that I want to raise expectations!

[robo175] 22/2/2019 22:52

Malcys blog

Serica Energy
I was very fortunate to be able to catch up with Mitch Flegg, CEO of Serica Energy for a couple of hours earlier this week. A lot has changed since I last wrote on the company, (not least how full his diary is) but I am grateful for the time he spent with me. The acquisition from BP, Total, BHP and Marubeni of interests in the Bruce, Keith and Rhum fields were not only transformational in that they reduced reliance on Erskine but that they were structured so that SQZ paid out little up front. With the acquisitions immediately cash flow and value accretive and with the bulk of the payment made from revenues over four years this was a peach of a deal. Indeed the bulk of the decommissioning liability retained by BP, Total and BHP with the remainder capped there is little potential risk in the transaction.

With Serica increasing production at BKR and Erskine the number is now some 26/- b/d of which 85% is gas or condensate further reducing risk. Whilst developing Columbus, now that FDP has been approved by the OGA, they plan to drill in 2020 and have first production in 2021. Meanwhile the carried Rowallan well, which spudded in December 2018, will take 140 days to drill giving results around May time and gives some exploration upside.

Serica is very strongly financed, if anything rather too much so if one can ever say that. With a strong balance sheet with little debt, strong cash flow and a large pool of tax losses there is easily scope for further acquisitions which I not only would not rule out but strongly encourage. The rating, despite the 63% increase over a year, is in my view undemanding and whilst Serica may not have such headline acts in its portfolio as its peers it should be shouting them just as loudly and may have claims for a Bucket list appearance before long

[dunderheed] 22/2/2019 20:36

They've got lower 2p as well I think?
Expected to be c18k a day prod though?
Imho.

[dunderheed] 22/2/2019 18:53

All this academic / scientific / mathematic discussion is stopping me concentrating on Holly Oaks FGS.

[dunderheed] 22/2/2019 18:50

He / she did say if they were independent steely?

[steelwatch] 22/2/2019 18:49

This could run and run, LOL.

If you look at them as 2 separate targets, if the first is a duster, doesn't improve the odds on the second coming in, but, if the first is a discovery, then second may have a heightened cos?

[zingaro] 22/2/2019 18:37

Depends what you want the overall COS to mean. For example on a dice I have beforehand a 1/6 chance of 3 and a 1/6 chance of 4. So I have a 1/3 chance of 3 or 4 turning up. But the chance of both turning up by rolling again or using 2 dice is 1/6 * 1/6 ie small.

So the chance of one oil horizon being successful is the sum of the probs of each alone ie around 40%, but the chance of both being successful is the product ie 22% x 22% ie around 4%.

Assuming the horizons are independent of each other.

[steelwatch] 22/2/2019 18:04

Agreed - average

[dunderheed] 22/2/2019 18:03

FB correct the cos remains 22% not 44% (unfortunately).








U BIG SWOT.