Seeing Machines Share Discussion Threads

[nvhltd] 31/7/2024 21:54

Circa 330,000 commercial vehicles registered in Europe per year. The first GSR deadline was July. Where are the 100,000 plus PO'S Paul mentioned. The reality is that while none camera systems can be used until 2026 Guardian isn't going to be first choice.

Isn't it convenient that Guardian 3 was delayed, then under pressure to explain why there are no orders preceding GSR they finally came clean that a camera dms isn't a requirement until 2026. Now all of a sudden there's a new buzz word called Homologation that's causing further delays to sales and implementation.

Are there really no new truck models due that have to have Guardian 3 now?

Same with the missing car OEM's. Where are the delayed contracts?

[jmoexpress] 31/7/2024 13:22

As stated this is an annual figure - which is what annually means :) please read the safestocks blog - Google safestocks can’t type the url here…

[amt] 31/7/2024 09:00

Much better then. My 50k was per annum.. presumably the 800k plus is over x no of years

[jmoexpress] 30/7/2024 20:31

100 quid a unit? Stifel put a more reasonable estimate on it - worth between 800k and 1.5m annually - check out safestocks blog for a summary…

[hazl] 30/7/2024 09:21

Thanks to Henry.

[smithless] 30/7/2024 08:08

If this announcement had come from Martin Krantz CEO of Smart Eye he would have stated it had a SEK150m value over as usual an unspecified time and would had Jasper at Red Eye asking positive lead questions. Hopefully this is the start of Gen 3 mass adoption

[skinny] 30/7/2024 07:37

A progressive company - Bamford is very forward thinking - both electric and FCEV powered buses.

[amt] 30/7/2024 07:35

Sounds good. Say 500 buses per annum at 100 quid per system, say 50k.
It's a start.
The global market is perhaps one thousand times larger or 50m per annum.

[hazl] 30/7/2024 07:19

Europe's general safety regulations, that is and will pave the way as they say to be looked at by more manufacturers over there.


imo

[hazl] 30/7/2024 07:17

Not only the UK's largest electric bus manufacturer, based in Ireland but the fact that the GSR came out this month, equals double whammy surely?

[hazl] 30/7/2024 07:13

Snap skinny.

[jmoexpress] 19/7/2024 17:30

All relative is it not? Not an abysmal share for me - first bought in during Covid at 2.2 (could have been lower) and sold out at 10.7 (could have been higher)

Have made a packet on this share over the years - been buying since 5.1 - will buy down to high 3’s if it gets that far before it really takes off….imo…;.

Everything in the pipeline for this company to prosper imo - breakeven literally within the next few months, contracts due, regulations coming in, OEMs and truck firms decision time is now.

What is not to like? This is going to take off when capital comes back into AIM, very little doubt about it. But DYOR - and let me know if you find any other share that has this amazing potential to 10-20 bag…

[jpuff] 18/7/2024 08:42

What an abysmal share this has turned out to be. Another Torotrak wonder share!

[nvhltd] 12/7/2024 19:27

Paul has given countless excuses for the delays winning new contracts. Let's be clear I'm only calling out things he said would happen or target dates / expectations they communicated to investors.

The last time he made excuses about the delayed new contracts he said the oems were rethinking their approach to their decisions because of OMS, but said he expected that the new contracts would therefore be bigger and better. The fist half on 2024 was going to be very busy with new contracts. The reality is nothing has happened and instead of sales being for high level dms the oems are going for low level dms which has impacted the margin mix.

On Gen 3. GSR came in a week ago and not a single news worthy rns or piece of PR to coincide with this regulatory trigger. Why is that? It's obviously because no one wants it until they have to. They'd rather use torque type sensors than Gen 3.

Yes we know camera based dms regulations are coming, but so is the competition. Finding out this week that Valeo were developing their own dms and had 3 contracts in the bag didn't surprise me. I'm pretty sure other are too.

I don't track each oem in regards to dms, but there seems to be quite alot of 'missing' oems. So who is supplying them?

The price targets from Peel Hunt are very depressing given the years I've been invested in this company.

[mirabeau] 12/7/2024 13:10

Peel Hunt confirms Seeing Machines could capture 70 per cent auto market share

12th July 2024


Peel Hunt confirms Seeing Machines could capture 70 per cent of the global auto market and proffers a 16p bull case target price, while reiterating its current 9p price target.

In an interesting note issued today, Peel Hunt analysts have clarified their thoughts regarding Seeing Machines, stating it is the leading company in the Driver Monitoring (DMS) space with the opportunity to capture around 70 per cent of the 90-100m cars sold globally each year.

In the note, its team of analysts Oliver Tipping, Damindu Jayaweera and James Lockyer, stated: “We believe Seeing Machines has a medium-term opportunity to sell Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) to c.70% of the 90-100m cars sold p.a., equating to a c.US$650m/year market.”

They added: “By dissecting competitors’ KPIs, we conclude that Seeing Machines already has a leading position ahead of the market inflection.”

Of course it’s well-known that the EU General Safety Regulation (GSR), provides a layer of certainty as it mandates DMS in all cars by July 2026.

Moreover, from January 2026 the Euro NCAP 2026 protocols will require advanced, camera-based DMS if passenger cars are to achieve a 5 star rating. Given production lead times, I personally believe that means leading OEMs need to lock in this technology now for delivery by then.

Bull/Bear case

Peel Hunt explained its bull/bear case scenarios for Seeing Machines. Its bull case target price is 16p. Its bear case target price is 3.5p.

“Our bull case assumes Seeing Machines can win in the Chinese market. This sees cars on the road ramp to c.25m units. This is still lower than the 30m+ rear view mirrors Gentex ships p.a., so it is not an unreasonable number for a key player in the Automotive market.

Our bear case assumes that Seeing Machines only ever wins a 15% of its Total Addressable Market, equating to 10m cars on the road p.a. and that the ramp happens slower in the short term. We forecast a 46% growth rate for FY26E, vs 100% growth in our base case. A delay in adoption, and increased competition, especially in the rear-view mirror market, that leads to a lower market share are the two key risks.”

It should be borne in mind that even this valuation doesn’t fully reflect the huge growth that Gen 3 Guardian is likely to deliver in the current financial year. In my opinion, with contracts ranging from the tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of units likely to be won by Seeing Machines there is ample scope for upgrades to every broker’s target price.

In addition, Aviation will provide further upside when Collins delivers its finished its AI-powered eye-tracking product for use in aeroplanes, in collaboration with Seeing Machines.

Of course, do you own research and don’t rely on the views of any single source before investing.

[nvhltd] 11/7/2024 19:03

I hope you are right, but they are relying on and being effectively bailed out by several one off payments. This one with catapiller is a one off payment and cannot be repeated for 5 years. It should also be noted that they need to develop a new product out of that $16.5 million so it's difficult to assess how much of that upfront royalty payment drops to the bottom line.

So we've had the money and it will be spent in no time at all.

Who remembers the town hall when Paul said effectively what would they do with any more money after the Magna CLN? They need it now profitability has been pushed out again.

Magna are going to want their money back in just over 2 years time, but in 12 months time they can call time on their relationship with SEE.

Only this week we have discovered that one of out tier 1 customers were developing their own DMS and winning contracts. They were probably reverse engineering our product to make theirs. Magna are probably doing exactly the same.

[smithless] 11/7/2024 07:51

nvhitd you've got to start looking at the bigger picture here. Cash is king (expect more from Magna) until we see a sharp acceleration in revenue later part of 2025. I don't if you are short of SEE or just an angry investor. Colin Barnden I think sums up the recent deal quite well.

Valeo has announced a strategic collaboration with Seeing Machines to grow market share in automotive #driver and #occupant #monitoring. As part of the agreement Valeo will transfer its driver monitoring perception software via Seeing Machines’ acquisition of Asaphus Vision GmbH. This collaboration reinforces the growing realization that #DMS is exceptionally hard to do well and that, like #ADAS, only a handful of suppliers will be commercially successful in the long term. #Incabin monitoring is about seeing and understanding human behavior, not procuring cheap software that only barely meets regulatory requirements. The acquisition of Asaphus is partly a tidying-up exercise of the DMS IP across the parties, but the main conclusion is simple: Like Magna International, Valeo is now all-in with Seeing Machines on DMS.

The development is about the future for Smart Safety 360, which Valeo still talks surprisingly little about, but I described as a "game changer." (Link: hxxps://lnkd.in/eDuuP8Kc) Valeo has a record of integrating technology from third parties, the most notable of which was Mobileye. Last November Valeo produced its 20 millionth ADAS front camera system integrating Mobileye #EyeQ, just 12 months after passing 10 million. Valeo will do with Seeing Machines in DMS what it has done with Mobileye in ADAS: Ship to global OEMs in high volumes.

Seeing Machines has been clear DMS technology leader for years, but the volume leader from 2018-2022 was Smart Eye. However as discussed (link: hxxps://lnkd.in/enhwtBDd) Seeing Machines became both technology and market leader in 2023 and holds the momentum in 2024.

Seeing Machines and Smart Eye are now pursing very different strategies. Seeing Machines is firmly committed to the role of a tier-2 (T-2), leveraging strategic partnerships with Magna and now Valeo as T-1s. In comparison Smart Eye is pursuing the role of "software T-1" where it bypasses a traditional T-1 and works directly with an #OEM to integrate its software. Tobii has expressed plans to do the same. Interestingly both Smart Eye and Tobii are working with Bosch, which looks ever more like a T-1 intending to replace the DMS T-2s and develop the cabin software in-house, as it did for ADAS.

While Europe gets all the attention for DMS, the fastest growing market is forecast to be China, for compliance with C-NCAP and GBT requirements. Both Magna and Valeo have DMS solutions ready to ship and settled T-1/T-2 collaborations. The next couple of years are set to be very exciting as DMS volumes in China ramp up.

[nvhltd] 11/7/2024 07:26

I suggest everyone watches and listens very carefully to the Proactive Investor interview.

At 5.20. Caterpillar. Single one off payment for upfront royalties of $16.5 million. No mention of a license fee. However, in the RNS they call it a license fee and do not mention royalties at all. On first reading the RNS one could be forgiven for assuming the $16.5 million was just a licence fee and we would then benefit from the ongoing royalties on the future sales just like the first agreement allowed.

In the interview he doesn't mention a license fee and ongoing royalties. Just a one off upfront payment to cover 5 years of royalties. The reality is they have been forced into this less valuable deal in an attempt to to try and meet their profitability target. However, it's clear that the change in margin mix in auto, the lost sales, the delays introducing Gen 3 and the fact that no one wants Gen 3 until they have to will cause profitability to be pushed back. Rationale people call this a profit warning.


Again at 6.47 where he discusses timing and margin mix flipping to low level ncap compliant products from the high level products.

Then later he discusses the affect Gen 3 introduction is having on profitability. Again delays with the introduction of Gen 3 which means they are selling Gen 2 which has lower margins.

It can't be a lie to point out what is there to see and hear factually.

[nvhltd] 09/7/2024 18:45

Today's Proactive investors interview is very revealing. A profit warning and confirmation that the deal with Catapiller was for the upfront payment of royalties and not a licence fee plus royalties as it was previously.

He also confirmed that OEM's are choosing low cost low spec versions of dms which is lower margins.

He's proving to be a deceitful failure of a CEO.