Seeing Machines Share Discussion Threads

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 10:55

Agreed. It does seem that all of the dms manufacturers are claiming to have a commercial vehicle product available. Indeed Cipia are showcasing their fleet product at CES this year.

Our USP if nothing else seems to be the monitoring service which no one else is talking about.

Let's hope and pray that Paul doesn't screw this up because truck makers are going to need the product very soon if they are to have confidence that SEE can deliver for the July 7th date. Indeed I suggest production of vehicles with dms will need to start 3 months at least before the deadline.

If there was one product we have held a leadership position in for years it is fleet so I hope we don't fail at this late stage and gift business to Smarteye, Cipia and the others.

If we get this right then 2024 must surely be the year SEE delivers.

[boonboon] 04/1/2024 10:22

Smarteye are selling a built in system for large volume oem's. They've won some business for that.Paul has stated we didn't compete as not profitable for us and we think the gen3 product will be the better option.Time will tell if he's right.

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 10:21

It should also be noted that Cipia for example also work with Mobileye, Amberella and OmniVision.

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 09:49

I found this in relation to Smarteye's newly released fleet product. Note the comments about being an aftermarket product and for new vehicles in "small volumes"!

"AIS is a complete plug-and-play system, making it easy to install and very cost-effective. It is ideal for aftermarket installation in the cabin of existing trucks, buses, and cars, and for deployment in new vehicles being produced in small volumes".

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 09:22

Wherever I look it seems to confirm that from July a 'system' is required in all new commercial vehicles.

After years of experience selling Guardian, billions of miles of data collection and limited competition then surely we must be able to take more than 10% of this market which is what they are targeting?

However, this is why I have reservations until proven otherwise that a) they announce the launch at CES and b) they have no issues with production volumes from March / April.

I would then like to know how the whole sales process works?

1) Does the end user have a choice of dms suppler when they spec a vehicle or are they lumbered with whatever product the oem is offering?

For example if my preference is to buy Scania trucks will I have the option to buy a dms with the monitoring feature or will Scania say we only fit Smarteye? It would limit my options as an operator if each truck oem is tied to one dms supplier.

Hopefully this is where our relationship with Mobileye will start to bare fruit and it might also explain the 'purchase order' statement insofar that we supply to all truck oems on a customer order basis when selected over Smarteye rather than to individual OEM's to straight forward production volumes?

[base7] 04/1/2024 00:14

If there are to be 330k commercial vehicles produced from deadline date perhaps that's where Mobileye will help ?

[nvhltd] 03/1/2024 20:34

BoonBoon I'm not sure your statement is correct.

There are 6 safety features required to be fitted to all commercial vehicles registered in Europe from July 7th this year. One of those is:

"Driver drowsiness and inattention warning: Warns the driver if the system assesses that they are not as alert and may be tiring".

The above statement is taken from this Scania article:

hxxps://www.scania.com/uk/en/home/about-scania/newsroom/news/2023/eu-new-safety-regulation-for-trucks-and-buses.html

So the question is whether a drowsiness system is a camera based DMS? If it is then July is the drop dead date we need to meet.

Or is DMS number 8 and/ or 9 in the following Volvo literature in which case you might be correct if DMS is only considered a distraction device:

hxxps://www.volvotrucks.com/en-en/news-stories/insights/articles/2022/may/the-eus-updated-general-safety-regulations.html

The most clear statement I have seen that all commercial vehicles registered in Europe must have DMS by July 2024 is this statement from Jungo:

Home » Driving Safety in the Age of GSR 2024: How Driver Monitoring Systems Can Help

Driving Safety in the Age of GSR 2024: How Driver Monitoring Systems Can Help
The General Safety Regulation (GSR) is a regulation that sets mandatory safety requirements for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold in the European Union (EU). The purpose of the regulation is to improve the safety of vehicles and reduce the number of accidents and fatalities on European roads. This includes a requirement for vehicles to be equipped with systems to detect driver distraction and drowsiness and is set to come into effect in 2024.

The implementation of DMS in vehicles is a significant step towards reducing the number of accidents caused by driver distraction or fatigue. The GSR requires all new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold in the European Union to have a DMS installed by 2024,

hxxps://jungo.com/driving-safety-in-the-age-of-gsr-2024-how-driver-monitoring-systems-can-help/

We also have this clear statement from Smarteye. Again it refers to all new vehicles and not new models.

hxxps://smarteye.se/news/smart-eye-introduces-ais-cv-alert-advanced-gsr-compliant-drowsiness-detection-for-buses-and-trucks/#:~:text=Effective%20from%20July%206%2C%202024,potentially%20hazardous%20levels%20are%20detected.

And this one that July 7th is the drop dead date for drowsiness and 2026 for distraction. Either way Smarteye and Jungo are clear that they have 2024 for their product.

hxxps://smarteye.se/blog/how-smart-eye-can-help-bus-and-truck-manufacturers-navigate-gsr/

Even Seeing Machines is saying that Guardian is a drowsiness detection system to meet the GSR deadline date in July:

hxxps://guardian.seeingmachines.com/bus-and-coach#:~:text=All%20new%20buses%20and%20coaches,to%20comply%20with%20new%20regulation

[nvhltd] 03/1/2024 19:06

I thought someone said that it was all new vehicles made in the commercial space from June 2024?

[boonboon] 03/1/2024 17:17

It's only for new models from June. Existing models is 2026.

[nvhltd] 03/1/2024 15:08

There seems to be some concern regarding the possible announcement of Gen 3 at CES.

Let us remember that SEE have more form for delays, hype and missed targets than they do at delivering on time. Gen 3 is already more than 6 months late and to my knowledge they have never explained why?

I'm prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and assume it will be released at CES as Paul has promised.

What I'm less convinced about is their ability to be ready with the production volumes to meet the GSR regulations which I believe kick in June.

So then the question becomes who else can supply circa 27,500 dms systems per month of the 330,000 European made commercial vehicles per annum?

If not US then who else is ready to supply dms to fleet vehicles?

What happens come June if truck makers can't get hold of dms?

[jpuff] 03/1/2024 11:03

As it is moribund at 5p there's no need to rush to buy. It's been here a couple of years and so could continue it's sideways movement for the foreseeable?

[boonboon] 03/1/2024 07:28

No mention of Guardian gen3. Hopefully that will follow in the coming days.

[jmoexpress] 02/1/2024 10:16

What’s omg?

[jmoexpress] 02/1/2024 10:16

What’s omg?

[2vdm] 02/1/2024 08:44

Also a buy on OMG

[amt] 01/1/2024 07:55

Tipped in the Telegraph today. No target price but with legislation coming into force in 2024, it could be its year.

[ali47fish] 27/12/2023 07:23

Seeing Machines shares 'highly attractive', says US investment bank
Published: 14:04 20 Dec 2023 GMT

Seeing Machines Ltd -
Shares in Seeing Machines Ltd (AIM:SEE, OTC:SEEMF) were marked higher in the wake of its 17th major automotive contract for its driver monitoring technology.

The eye-tracking specialist didn’t name the latest customer but said the lifetime value of the new business was US$30 million.

“With the impending regulatory deadlines for driver monitoring systems in the EU, it is no surprise to see an acceleration in the award of OEM contracts,” said broker Peel Hunt.

Under the bloc’s new General Safety Regulation, DMS will soon become mandatory on European roads.

To date, Seeing Machines has won business worth US$336 million, with most of that revenue due in the next five years.

“We believe it is still in the early stages of a regulatory-driven demand cycle for DMS/OMS technology,” said US investment bank Stifel in a note.

Stifel thinks the shares, up 0.1p at 5.2p, are “highly attractive for a market leader in a large industry”.

Peel Hunt’s target price is 12p.

[hope1815] 22/12/2023 18:53

I am an Investor my point of view SEE has a wide appeal to a lot of Industries. The value will come through, Smart Eye they get contracts any company does.

People may worry Smart Eye getting some contracts, just watch the trading update again on SEE. They did say they not going for the bottom of the market and the products speak for themselves.

Just a saying from an old Investor now passed away " You may blow a balloon up but at the end of the day it's just hot air" Smart Eye has done a good PR job, just remember the old Investor Quote.

[mirabeau] 22/12/2023 08:46

Many thanks to Safestocks for his/her work -



Peel Hunt note questions Smart Eye and Seeing Machines comparison

Posted on 22nd December 2023

Peet Hunt Analyst Oliver Tipping has issued a broker note on Seeing Machines that questions the contract size for Smart Eye’s recent US$150m win, while stating that Seeing Machines puts out minimum values for its wins. This is a point I made recently but, coming from Peel Hunt, it confirms it for any doubters out there.

Still, the most important point made in the note was that aside from its most recent $30m win, there are many more auto contracts expected to be announced by Seeing Machines early in the New Year. Tipping wrote: “This win was the first of the major European contracts Seeing Machines was hoping to win before the end of the year, thus its pipeline remains robust as it looks to deliver more wins in early 2024.”

The numbers game

Tipping also confirmed that Seeing Machines is very conservative regarding its contract values: “It is important to remember that the contract value Seeing Machines reports is conservatively based off minimum production volumes, which are likely to be far lower than the actual production values for these contracts.”

Then he went on to caution investors. “It is vital for investors to be aware of the differences between the numbers thrown around by different companies in the DMS market. For example, it would be easy to be distracted by the SEK 1.55bn (US$150m) figure quoted in Smart Eye’s most recent win (which we believe to be General Motors). However, we are unclear how this figure has been calculated as Smart Eye does not disclose its method for calculating the value of these contacts. In addition, this contract was as a tier 1 supplier to the OEM. Given it currently acts as a tier 2 supplier to this OEM, its CEO stated volume as a tier 1 supplier is only likely to ramp in 2029, into the 2030s (not from 2027 as mentioned in the RNS) and thus has no impact on cash generation in the short to medium term.”

Tipping went on to stress that the key indicator of success is cars on the road, stating: “Until Smart Eye starts reporting this number, the tangibility and true worth of the contract wins remains unclear.”

Still, I’m sure the figures put out by Smart Eye will help it immensely in any future fundraising efforts.

Aside from dealing a knock-out blow to those who think Smart Eye is the global leader in driver and occupant monitoring, the note maintained its ‘Buy’ stance on Seeing Machines and its 12p price target.

Importantly, it also confirmed that Seeing Machines has, as promised by CFO Martin Ives, started to cut its expenditure. Analyst Oliver Tipping wrote: “Management confirmed that it has executed the first of its cost-cutting measures aimed at bringing the cash burn down to break-even by FY25 (-$3m a month exit run rate from FY23). We await further details in the 1H24 update, but this will be crucial in underpinning the long-term viability of the business. For now, the company has a strong balance sheet, which should see it to its targeted break-even date.”

Auto contracts worth $1bn

With its latest win Seeing Machines now has auto contracts officially worth US$366m. However, as previously stated, given Seeing Machines propensity to cite minimum values that turn out to be much larger, I believe the real worth of those contracts is approximately 3 times that. Yes, $1bn!

Why is that significant? Well $1bn in auto contracts surely makes it a very desirable candidate for a takeover in the very near future, particularly as it is soon to hit break-even.

With the move to assisted driving taking over from dreams of full autonomy and legislation coming into effect this year in Europe that mandates driver monitoring, the future is looking very bright for Seeing Machines.

The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines.

[base7] 21/12/2023 16:42

Agree entirely Buggy & I wonder if we were a well funded start up whether we would be in a position to IPO next year for substantially in excess of $1bill-ie once G3 is launched & expected post production contracts signed,together with increasing RFQ wins + Aviation progress.
G3 launching on schedule is crucial,together with decent sized initial contracts & we could yet have an excellent FY24

[jpuff] 21/12/2023 15:51

Many thanks Buggy for that helpful information and yes it was a genuine question.

[buggy] 21/12/2023 15:21

Jpuff,

In case this is a genuine question, the answer is two fold:

1. This technology has not fully taken off, not a huge volume of cars with this at the moment as it is a nice to have feature at the moment.
2. PM the CEO seems to promise much and miss his own deadline for delivery.

Having said that, the first point is about to change as DMS is to become a mandatory requirements for autos in Europe.

With respect to second point, PM is just far to optimistic in his timeline but the inflection point is this coming year when all the stars align.

Regulatory tailwinds will drive mass adoption. Despite many miss-steps by the CEO this share will do very well as there are few genuine competitors in this space, [ one being Smart Eye, irrespective of what some on SEE BB will want you to believe].

Smart Eye and SEE will carve up the majority or orders in this space.

Other reasons why you may consider researching to see if you should buy in are:

a) The Fleet market is huge and will the associated monitoring services is another element which is often ignored by most. Fleet will easily be turning over £100M if they can reach 200,000 connections, which is not far away once Gen 3 is lunched.
b) Gen 3 which is the 3rd Generation Guardian is scheduled to be finally lunched at CES 2024 ( 6th Jan 2024, I believe).
c) The aircraft business will probably take 2 years to start showing something but again is very lucrative. [ SEE is in exclusive agreement with Collins, and they are currently in the development phase of products to take to the market].

My view: In spite of some management mis-steps I believe that this will do well because the time for the technology has arrived and there are not many genuine competitors.

Disclaimer:
I hold shares in SEE. I think that the management could have done better but then I suppose their is always room for improvement where ever you are.

This is not an investment advice , just an attempt to give you what I consider to be an honest answer. You can then do you own research and se if this suits your investment criteria.

NOTE:
My Personal view: I believe that it will make another step increase once Gen 3 is launched at CES 2024 ( 6th Jan 2024).