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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seeing Machines Limited | LSE:SEE | London | Ordinary Share | AU0000XINAJ0 | ORD NPV (DI) |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.075 | 2.19% | 3.50 | 1,260,949 | 10:36:41 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.405 | 3.635 | 3.50 | 3.445 | 3.445 | |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Computer Related Svcs, Nec | AUD 67.63M | AUD -33.13M | AUD -0.0080 | -4.28 | 142.34M |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:32:08 | O | 62 | 3.645 | GBX |
| Date | Time | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2024 | 08:30 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Issue of Shares and Total Voting Rights |
| 11/11/2024 | 12:18 | ALNC |  Seeing Machines reports strong growth in vehicles using its technology |
| 11/11/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Q1 FY2025 Quarterly KPIs |
| 04/11/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Notice of Annual General Meeting |
| 31/10/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Global regulatory momentum drives revenue growth |
| 17/10/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Notice of Full Year Results 2024 |
| 28/8/2024 | 09:42 | ALNC | Seeing Machines to report revenue rise but wider loss, eyes breakeven |
| 28/8/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Seeing Machines FY24 Trading Update |
| 08/8/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Seeing Machines (SEE) Q4 FY2024 Quarterly KPIs |
| 30/7/2024 | 06:00 | UK RNS | Seeing Machines Limited Guardian Gen 3 fitted into Wrightbus |
Seeing Machines (SEE) Share Charts1 Year Seeing Machines Chart |
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1 Month Seeing Machines Chart |
Intraday Seeing Machines Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2024 | 15:52 | VISION for the future | 19,663 |
| 01/7/2024 | 19:41 | VW is not happy | - |
| 26/6/2024 | 06:20 | Seeing Machines PLC | 740 |
| 05/5/2024 | 17:44 | Is a better place for your money | 1 |
| 12/8/2021 | 17:30 | A great company. A poor share | 22 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:32:08 | 3.65 | 62 | 2.26 | O |
| 10:27:56 | 3.50 | 14,642 | 512.47 | AT |
| 10:13:39 | 3.50 | 10,465 | 365.97 | O |
| 10:11:13 | 3.55 | 1,048 | 37.20 | O |
| 10:03:11 | 3.55 | 985 | 34.97 | O |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 14/11/2024 10:24 by mirabeau Euro NCAP pushes for quality DMS, as provided by Seeing MachinesPosted on 13th November 2024 Following the publication of the 2026 Euro NCAP safety protocols, Seeing Machines is on the cusp of a significant re-rate as OEMs and Tier 1s race to meet higher performance requirements for driver/occupant monitoring. The two documents can be viewed here, courtesy of Colin Barnden, Principal Analyst at Semicast Research: Driver Engagement: Occupant Monitoring: The significance of these documents appear to have passed many investors by. However, no less a figure than Richard Schram, Technical Director at Euro NCAP, has confirmed to me that from January 1st, 2026 a new passenger car will not achieve a 5 star Euro NCAP safety rating in Europe unless it has a driver/occupant monitoring system that meets the criteria specified in these 2026 protocols. The implications of this news are huge for any OEM wishing to sell new passenger cars models in Europe. This is because, even though driver monitoring is mandatory in Europe from July 2026, Euro NCAP is effectively “pushing for higher performance than the regulation does”, according to Schram. This is great news for Seeing Machines as, being the most technically proficient provider of DMS/OMS with a fast to implement rearview mirror system, it offers the most realistic solution for many OEMs in that timeframe whose premium models will certainly require 5 star safety. [Elon Musk are you listening?] I’m therefore anticipating a raft of extensions to existing contracts as well as new contracts to secure its services via Magna, but also via its other partners over the next 6 months. I think that in the short term there will be such demand for its technology that its average selling price (ASP) will not drop significantly even as volumes expand. Moreover, that ASP is, I believe, already at a significant premium to its competitors. The upshot is that within the next 6 months, as SEE speeds towards 4m cars on the road with its technology, SEYE will be left in the dust, alongside Tobii and Cipia – which must be feeling the pain from the economic collapse of Israel. Seeing Machines itself has previously stated that it expects to take around 40 per cent of the global passenger car market for DMS by volume, 50 per cent by value. I’ve long held the view that 75 per cent by value is possible and I think this news from Euro NCAP confirms that there was a sound reason for my holding onto this stock, despite experiencing a roller-coaster ride. As OEMs, Tier 1s and fund managers realise the implications of this news I expect increased buying of SEE stock as it brushes off misplaced investor concerns. This should push the price up significantly. Call me paranoid but over the next 6-8 months I believe private investors should beware market makers shaking the tree in order to acquire their shares cheaply for institutional buyers. Of course, do your own research as this is only my opinion. Maybe my prediction of a 75 per cent market share of the global DMS market 8 years ago was a fluke. The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines. |
Posted at 05/11/2024 19:08 by mirabeau Auto industry woes affect Seeing MachinesPosted on 1st November 2024 While Seeing Machines’ FY24 results illustrated a year of significant progress, auto industry headwinds and a slower than expected ramp in Guardian Gen 3 sales have led to Stifel reducing its revenue estimates for FY25-26. This in turn has led to it reducing its DCF-based target price to 11.4p from 13p. It’s certainly disappointing news for shareholders but Peter McNally, analyst at Stifel, commented in a detailed note issued on October 31st: “Despite delays we maintain our positive stance on the shares moderating our target price to 11.4p (13.0p) and see the company extending its leadership with proven implementation and deployment into an increasingly regulated market.” Revenues for 2025 are now predicted to be US$73.1m with a pre-tax loss of $13.3m, while in 2026 revenues of $97.5m produced a pre-tax profit of $5m. Material uncertainty In the full Annual Report (on page 46), the auditor PWC also made a comment about ‘material uncertainty’, reflecting the cash outflow of $11.9m in the FY24 results. Personally, I believe they are only fulfilling their obligations to warn investors about potential risks (while also covering themselves), yet it is unsettling for green investors unused to the conservative ways of auditors. Stifel’s McNally certainly didn’t appear unduly concerned, stating: “We note the auditor’s “material uncertainty” comment but see a path to breakeven given strong (although reduced) operational drivers and cash costs containment”. He went on to explain his estimate changes and assumptions in detail: “We reduce FY25/26E revenue by 11%/17% assuming a slightly higher GM% of 64% (62%), driven by a slightly higher software mix resulting in a cash EBITDA loss of $14.9m ($10.8m) for FY25E but profit of $8.6m ($19.5m) in FY26E. This is based on stable cash opex of $65m, resulting in $9.8m cash at FY25E year-end and cash generation thereafter as royalties continue to ramp and Guardian Gen 3 volumes increase.” In his presentation today on Investor Meet, Paul McGlone reiterated that the company still expects to hit breakeven on a monthly basis in Q4 of this financial year. He went to explain that if additional working capital is required due to the lumpy nature of automotive revenues: “We have a reasonably simple solution in the form of receivables funding and that process is underway. We expect it to deliver additional working capital in the range of $5-10m.” Furthermore, he added: “To the extent that we need additional cash, we have a whole range of opportunities before us, some of which are well progressed and are consistent with the types of programmes or results that we’ve delivered in the last 2-3 years.” I assume here that he is referring to license deals which, as Stifel points out have had a dramatic effect on profitability and cash given its similar 100% gross margin nature to royalties. McNally teased in his note: “Licensing is very difficult to predict but the company has benefitted from licensing deals over the past few years from Magna for $5.4m in October 2022, Collins Aerospace for $10.0m in May 2023, and most recently Caterpillar for $16.5m in June 2024.” I’m therefore fairly confident Paul McGlone and his team will pull another rabbit out of the bag this year. Happily, it seems smarter people that me are thinking the same. Speaking directly about the cash concerns McNally wrote: “With $23.4m of cash on the balance sheet we feel that the company has sufficient cash for the year with the goal of reaching run-rate cash flow break even by the end of FY25E (June). The company also has a history of sourcing strategic funding and software license agreements that have benefited cash. We believe these options still exist and can provide additional cash if required.” Peel Hunt In a short note issued today Peel Hunt reiterated its ‘BUY’ rating but reduced its target price to 7p from 9p. Analyst Oliver Tipping stated: “Management has re-affirmed its commitment to reach a cash break-even run rate in FY25. However, we believe this could be challenging. “Ultimately, OEMs across the industry have been struggling and they dictate the speed of production. We fear timelines could shift to the right. “Seeing Machines’ ability to reach its break-even run rate goal is likely to hinge on its ability to control costs. Competitors, like Tobii, have already begun severe spending cuts and we believe Seeing Machines will require similar measures given its current cash burn rate of $2m a month. To account for wider industry weakness, we reduce our TP from 9p to 7p.” Reasons to be cheerful While the share price tanked on Thursday, as nervous private investors do what they usually do when real life intervenes; panic and sell low, there are reasons to be cheerful. In the Investor Meet presentation today Seeing Machines did confirm that for this financial year it expects: 1.9 – 2.1 million annual production units for Automotive, contributing to high-margin royalty revenue. A 20% increase in connected Guardian units generating monthly services revenue. 13,000 – 15,000 Guardian Gen 3 units to be sold, predominantly in Q2 at a much higher margin (50%) than previously with Gen 2 units (10%). Aviation to achieve Blue Label (functioning prototype) product delivery, adaptable for certain fields of use (simulator, air traffic control). Cash flow break-even run rate target at end of FY2025. In addition, during the Investor Meet presentation CEO Paul McGlone revealed that there has been a resurgence in the inflow of RFIs and RFQs for the auto industry. “We are currently processing RFQs for OEMS based in Japan, Korea, Europe, China and North America. The vehicles associated with those RFQs are largely for Europe, Japan and North America and would have start of production timing between 2027 and 2029. And we expect the sourcing of these programmes to begin in 2025 calendar year.” Thus, I think Peel Hunt’s fears of auto timelines shifting to the right are unfounded. Indeed, Seeing Machines has already suffered from that and the market is now hot for DMS/OMS once more. Amazing news? Regarding Gen 3 sales, I’m also hearing a whisper that Seeing Machines has begun trials with a global US online retailer, which is A household name. If they are successful and a deal is announced a few months from now I’m pretty confident the share price will soar on that news alone. Can you guess the name? I’ve been in this stock a long time, too long in truth. However, I’ve no intention of selling out when the company is so close to achieving breakeven. That’s because I believe it will trigger a bidding war. Do your own research of course. The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines. P.S. If anyone does make any money from this information do please consider making a small donation to a charity for the people in Gaza. As we worry about money they are being murdered en masse and ethnically cleansed, which according to international law constitutes genocide. Thanks. |
Posted at 17/8/2024 16:10 by base7 NVH LTD - I do agree with some of your comments & certainly accept that there have been times when good news is overshadowed by something less pleasant.However, they projected cashflow & the expected 30/6 cash balance earlier in the year & we dont know whether the Cat $16.m deal had been factored in ( it had been under discussion for some time).The sale of the remaining G2 stock in Q4 was unexpected,although, & again, Paul had advised us earlier in the year to expect s to sell down our G2 stock by 30/6/24, resulting in improved cashflow in H2-although if the bulk of that stock was sold in June ( as a "job lot")the sales will be reflected in Trade Debtors rather than cash at Bank ,although Paul & Martin should have a good idea as to when the Trade Debtors will be settled.This , I appreciate could create some uncertainty-along with the uncertainty regarding the treatment of the $16.5m from Cat -which could also be the cause of the delay in the update as the Audit Partner acting for SEE may have to agree to the accounting treatment before the update can be issued ( we would not want to declare revenues of $70m if it subsequently transpired they were only $60m.Despite any perceived uncertainties our share price is up around 20% since the KPI release & The Market usually knows when a fundraise is underway & if that was the case our share price would be more likely to have fallen to less than 4p as those in the know sold ahead of the placing. My view is that we are interestingly poised & a solid update,demonstrating ( & declaring ) no need for a raise with cashflow break even still expected in FY25 ( we are almost 2 months in ) would be very positive for our share price Clearly an update showing the need for more cash, including a revenue shortfall & with cashflow breakeven deferred to FY26 results in our share price heading rapidly South. My confirmation bias together with my belief in our substantial potential leads me to expect option 1 . |
Posted at 12/7/2024 12:10 by mirabeau Peel Hunt confirms Seeing Machines could capture 70 per cent auto market share12th July 2024 Peel Hunt confirms Seeing Machines could capture 70 per cent of the global auto market and proffers a 16p bull case target price, while reiterating its current 9p price target. In an interesting note issued today, Peel Hunt analysts have clarified their thoughts regarding Seeing Machines, stating it is the leading company in the Driver Monitoring (DMS) space with the opportunity to capture around 70 per cent of the 90-100m cars sold globally each year. In the note, its team of analysts Oliver Tipping, Damindu Jayaweera and James Lockyer, stated: “We believe Seeing Machines has a medium-term opportunity to sell Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) to c.70% of the 90-100m cars sold p.a., equating to a c.US$650m/year market.” They added: “By dissecting competitors’ KPIs, we conclude that Seeing Machines already has a leading position ahead of the market inflection.” Of course it’s well-known that the EU General Safety Regulation (GSR), provides a layer of certainty as it mandates DMS in all cars by July 2026. Moreover, from January 2026 the Euro NCAP 2026 protocols will require advanced, camera-based DMS if passenger cars are to achieve a 5 star rating. Given production lead times, I personally believe that means leading OEMs need to lock in this technology now for delivery by then. Bull/Bear case Peel Hunt explained its bull/bear case scenarios for Seeing Machines. Its bull case target price is 16p. Its bear case target price is 3.5p. “Our bull case assumes Seeing Machines can win in the Chinese market. This sees cars on the road ramp to c.25m units. This is still lower than the 30m+ rear view mirrors Gentex ships p.a., so it is not an unreasonable number for a key player in the Automotive market. Our bear case assumes that Seeing Machines only ever wins a 15% of its Total Addressable Market, equating to 10m cars on the road p.a. and that the ramp happens slower in the short term. We forecast a 46% growth rate for FY26E, vs 100% growth in our base case. A delay in adoption, and increased competition, especially in the rear-view mirror market, that leads to a lower market share are the two key risks.” It should be borne in mind that even this valuation doesn’t fully reflect the huge growth that Gen 3 Guardian is likely to deliver in the current financial year. In my opinion, with contracts ranging from the tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of units likely to be won by Seeing Machines there is ample scope for upgrades to every broker’s target price. In addition, Aviation will provide further upside when Collins delivers its finished its AI-powered eye-tracking product for use in aeroplanes, in collaboration with Seeing Machines. Of course, do you own research and don’t rely on the views of any single source before investing. |
Posted at 11/7/2024 06:51 by smithless nvhitd you've got to start looking at the bigger picture here. Cash is king (expect more from Magna) until we see a sharp acceleration in revenue later part of 2025. I don't if you are short of SEE or just an angry investor. Colin Barnden I think sums up the recent deal quite well.Valeo has announced a strategic collaboration with Seeing Machines to grow market share in automotive #driver and #occupant #monitoring. As part of the agreement Valeo will transfer its driver monitoring perception software via Seeing Machines’ acquisition of Asaphus Vision GmbH. This collaboration reinforces the growing realization that #DMS is exceptionally hard to do well and that, like #ADAS, only a handful of suppliers will be commercially successful in the long term. #Incabin monitoring is about seeing and understanding human behavior, not procuring cheap software that only barely meets regulatory requirements. The acquisition of Asaphus is partly a tidying-up exercise of the DMS IP across the parties, but the main conclusion is simple: Like Magna International, Valeo is now all-in with Seeing Machines on DMS. The development is about the future for Smart Safety 360, which Valeo still talks surprisingly little about, but I described as a "game changer." (Link: hxxps://lnkd.in/eDuu Seeing Machines has been clear DMS technology leader for years, but the volume leader from 2018-2022 was Smart Eye. However as discussed (link: hxxps://lnkd.in/enhw Seeing Machines and Smart Eye are now pursing very different strategies. Seeing Machines is firmly committed to the role of a tier-2 (T-2), leveraging strategic partnerships with Magna and now Valeo as T-1s. In comparison Smart Eye is pursuing the role of "software T-1" where it bypasses a traditional T-1 and works directly with an #OEM to integrate its software. Tobii has expressed plans to do the same. Interestingly both Smart Eye and Tobii are working with Bosch, which looks ever more like a T-1 intending to replace the DMS T-2s and develop the cabin software in-house, as it did for ADAS. While Europe gets all the attention for DMS, the fastest growing market is forecast to be China, for compliance with C-NCAP and GBT requirements. Both Magna and Valeo have DMS solutions ready to ship and settled T-1/T-2 collaborations. The next couple of years are set to be very exciting as DMS volumes in China ramp up. |
Posted at 08/7/2024 17:18 by nvhltd Why do some people claim today's deal is good? Until this morning I'd bet no one had ever heard of Asaphus and didn't know it was a company in competition with SEE working on 3 deals we weren't. People claim without any knowledge that the price paid must be a good deal because we're paying half of what Valeo valued the business 12 months ago. FFS we were valued much higher when the share price was 12p. Their value like ours has tanked because all DMS companies have failed to deliver.Even Peelhunt have downgraded our share price target again. I fear for the share price over the next few months. It's already on the floor and any further bad news is going to put even more downward pressure on the share price The reality is Paul has continued where Ken left off by making wild claims and predictions, but delivering very little. |
Posted at 26/6/2024 06:14 by mirabeau Nice one------------------ 26 June 2024 Seeing Machines secures US$16.5 million payment as part of five year License Renewal with mining giant Caterpillar Revised Agreement also opens up significant untapped market for Seeing Machines' Guardian Generation 3 solution FY2024 Pre-Close Trading Outlook Update Seeing Machines Limited (AIM: SEE, "Seeing Machines" or the "Company"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, announces that it has signed a new Master License and Marketing Agreement with global mining company Caterpillar Inc ("Caterpillar") covering the next five years (the "Revised Agreement"), as the existing agreement was set to expire in August 2024. Key elements of the Revised Agreement: · Up-front license fee payment of $16.5 million related to Guardian technology · Certain fields of use released for Seeing Machines to leverage · Further co-development of driver safety technology to be undertaken As part of the Revised Agreement, Caterpillar will make an up-front license payment for technology related to Guardian operator monitoring products, delivering a one-off cash payment of US$16.5 million to Seeing Machines. The Revised Agreement also enhances marketing cooperation between the companies to better serve their respective customer bases and improve coordination in the pursuit of under-served opportunities. The changes open up access for Seeing Machines to sell its Guardian solution for on-highway vehicles directly and through its distribution network to select customers in many market segments of the General Construction and other core industries. The Revised Agreement also makes provision for further co-development of driver safety technology, based on Seeing Machines' Intellectual Property to deliver smarter, more sophisticated, and competitive products to the heavy equipment sector. This co-development will proceed through specific development projects to be defined and priced individually. Caterpillar will continue to purchase and distribute Guardian Generation 2 directly or through their independent worldwide dealer network. Paul McGlone, CEO at Seeing Machines, commented: "When we signed our initial strategic agreement with Caterpillar in 2015 to work exclusively to deliver our package of monitoring technology to their customers in certain core industry sectors related to mining, it was a transformational agreement for the industry. As we enter this next phase of our strategic collaboration with Caterpillar, we are delighted to be signing this revised agreement, setting the agenda for the next 5 years. The US$16.5 million payment will bolster our cash reserves and help deliver on our business plan as we move closer to achieving a cash flow break-even run rate in FY2025. "Our incredible team continues to work tirelessly to ensure that Seeing Machines remains at the cutting edge of aftermarket Driver Monitoring System (DMS) solutions with our Guardian technology. Following the launch of the Guardian Generation 3 product earlier this year, and the renewal and expansion of our exclusive arrangement with Caterpillar, I believe we are well placed to take advantage of the regulation driven demand for our technology across customers in these vertical industries." Seeing Machines continues to protect commercial transport and logistics companies with its aftermarket Guardian solution globally, with over 16 billion kilometres of recorded travel across more than 59,000 vehicles. The third generation Guardian hardware, launched this year and now being delivered to bus and truck manufacturers to meet the European General Safety Regulation, also delivers a range of features that leverage the Company's proven automotive-grade algorithms and precision optics to deliver premium performance in the most demanding real-world driving conditions. Pre-close trading outlook As the end of the current Financial Year approaches, the Board of Seeing Machines anticipates that the Company will close the FY2024 period at or ahead of market expectations for Revenue and Cash. Subject to final revenue recognition associated with the Revised Agreement with Caterpillar and the final outcome on Automotive royalties for Q4 2024 it is expected that Cash EBITDA will be lower than market expectations. This has been largely driven by Aftermarket margin mix due to the slower than expected transition from Guardian Generation 2 to Generation 3 and the previously reported adverse Automotive royalty volumes and mix during the year. Automotive royalty volumes have improved during Q3 2024, delivering 74% growth in unit volume for the year to date. Despite Cash EBITDA being lower in FY2024, the Board confirms that the business is funded to deliver on the Seeing Machines business plan and reiterates its expectation to achieve a cash flow break-even run rate in FY2025. The Company will provide a detailed Trading Update in early August, as usual. |
Posted at 21/5/2024 06:24 by nvhltd Paul in most presentation stated that SEE share of the market would be 40% of market share and 50% by revenue, however,in one video he actually said we would get 50% of market share and 60% of revenue.We might well have achieved those numbers. I don't know because despite what a poster claimed above we have no idea of the number of total dms sales. With just over a month to go before the first GSR regulation kicks in we don't even know who most car makers will use for DMS for new models? Why is that? Take Toyota for example. Knowing DMS is required for new car models sold in Europe from July 7th this year what does the lack of information tell us? 1) They haven't got any new models coming for 2 years until all cars are mandated to have DMSin Europe? Because they haven't announced a DMS supplier and it takes 2 years of NRE. 2) They have an in-house product? 3) There's some kind of get out of the regulations in the small print. The point is I'm not questioning the market share as such at this stage because there's a lot we don't know about, but I'm going to assume that we do have 40% of the market. What I am questioning and challenging is the size of the market based on the statements from the company and in my view that's why the share price is depressed. If the first wave was going to be $1 billion then we have only achieved circa 36% by revenue. We are according to SEE in the second wave of another $1billion and the first half of this year was going to see alot of activity. With 1 month to go we have won one additional contract with an existing oem. So the market size now according to SEE is $2 billion of which we have won circa $380 million. That's where we are at and why the profitability has been delayed and the share price is 5p. No amount of personal attacks or claims about shareholdings in SEE or Smarteye will change that. Thing's are behind schedule and not going to plan - fact. |
Posted at 03/4/2024 14:27 by base7 Not for anyone here to persuade you either way-that decision is yours,& as we are all aware,AIM has been a very poor market over the last couple of years! I will explain why I remain-1)Paul & Martin reiterated FY24 guidance on 18/3 , ie for revenues of $66.30m,with an increased cash balance based on destocking of G2 units & a substantial reduction in monthly cost 2)They continue to expect cash flow break even later this calender year 3)Our contract with VW started last month which should increase our Q4 KPIs & Q3 should be positive ( if we remain on target to meet FY24 revenue forecasts 4)Paul continues to expect us to win 40% share of the overall Auto market & more by value as ours is a premium product compared to some of the competition 5)Aviation is apparently progressing well towards our first commercial contracts via Collins & they should be sticky long term contracts 6)Collaborations with organisations like FORS ( & others) should ensure a steady increase in G3 installations & monitoring & if we Pauls expectation of 25% growth is steady , if achieved, rather than exponential ( which some of us hoped for ) 7) Like many I invested far too early & have averaged down over the years but if we really are very close to the inflection point where we go from loss making to being profitable ,there is a good chance that our share price will rerate - once proven & it would kill me to see our share price increase towards the Stifel target if I bailed at our current share price 8) Paul bought 500k+ shares following results & although I would have preferred to see Martin & other Directors/Pdmrs buying too, £20k is a bit more than a token investment to comfort stakeholders I am mindful that Paul has missed targets previously, & ambitious targets previously have been managed down & we are in a fast moving market & we never know what the competition may be up to or indeed the OEMs,most of whom have their own in house tech departments-so clearly our share price may be weak for reasons other than AIM market malaise. Having been here this long I am prepared to remain invested & see how the next few months unfold while appreciating that if we do miss the near term expectations the Market will be unforgiving. Good luck with whatever decision you make |
Posted at 22/12/2023 08:46 by mirabeau Many thanks to Safestocks for his/her work -Peel Hunt note questions Smart Eye and Seeing Machines comparison Posted on 22nd December 2023 Peet Hunt Analyst Oliver Tipping has issued a broker note on Seeing Machines that questions the contract size for Smart Eye’s recent US$150m win, while stating that Seeing Machines puts out minimum values for its wins. This is a point I made recently but, coming from Peel Hunt, it confirms it for any doubters out there. Still, the most important point made in the note was that aside from its most recent $30m win, there are many more auto contracts expected to be announced by Seeing Machines early in the New Year. Tipping wrote: “This win was the first of the major European contracts Seeing Machines was hoping to win before the end of the year, thus its pipeline remains robust as it looks to deliver more wins in early 2024.” The numbers game Tipping also confirmed that Seeing Machines is very conservative regarding its contract values: “It is important to remember that the contract value Seeing Machines reports is conservatively based off minimum production volumes, which are likely to be far lower than the actual production values for these contracts.” Then he went on to caution investors. “It is vital for investors to be aware of the differences between the numbers thrown around by different companies in the DMS market. For example, it would be easy to be distracted by the SEK 1.55bn (US$150m) figure quoted in Smart Eye’s most recent win (which we believe to be General Motors). However, we are unclear how this figure has been calculated as Smart Eye does not disclose its method for calculating the value of these contacts. In addition, this contract was as a tier 1 supplier to the OEM. Given it currently acts as a tier 2 supplier to this OEM, its CEO stated volume as a tier 1 supplier is only likely to ramp in 2029, into the 2030s (not from 2027 as mentioned in the RNS) and thus has no impact on cash generation in the short to medium term.” Tipping went on to stress that the key indicator of success is cars on the road, stating: “Until Smart Eye starts reporting this number, the tangibility and true worth of the contract wins remains unclear.” Still, I’m sure the figures put out by Smart Eye will help it immensely in any future fundraising efforts. Aside from dealing a knock-out blow to those who think Smart Eye is the global leader in driver and occupant monitoring, the note maintained its ‘Buy’ stance on Seeing Machines and its 12p price target. Importantly, it also confirmed that Seeing Machines has, as promised by CFO Martin Ives, started to cut its expenditure. Analyst Oliver Tipping wrote: “Management confirmed that it has executed the first of its cost-cutting measures aimed at bringing the cash burn down to break-even by FY25 (-$3m a month exit run rate from FY23). We await further details in the 1H24 update, but this will be crucial in underpinning the long-term viability of the business. For now, the company has a strong balance sheet, which should see it to its targeted break-even date.” Auto contracts worth $1bn With its latest win Seeing Machines now has auto contracts officially worth US$366m. However, as previously stated, given Seeing Machines propensity to cite minimum values that turn out to be much larger, I believe the real worth of those contracts is approximately 3 times that. Yes, $1bn! Why is that significant? Well $1bn in auto contracts surely makes it a very desirable candidate for a takeover in the very near future, particularly as it is soon to hit break-even. With the move to assisted driving taking over from dreams of full autonomy and legislation coming into effect this year in Europe that mandates driver monitoring, the future is looking very bright for Seeing Machines. The writer holds stock in Seeing Machines. |
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