Seeing Machines Share Discussion Threads

[boonboon] 10/1/2024 07:04

3,000 per year is a start, but not a great start.

[longsight] 09/1/2024 17:42

according to a Stifel research note, Seeing Machines has launched the third generation of its Aftermarket Driver Monitoring System (DMS) product, called Guardian, which is ideally suited for fleet vehicles. The new product is significant for the company as it provides a feature-rich product at a much lower production cost, which can catalyze revenues in this division1. The unit cost of the Gen 3 product is 40% of the previous model, which provides a significant advantage over competitors and allows the company to price its product at a more competitive rate and make a profit, while improving gross margins1. Stifel analysts reiterated a ‘buy’ rating on Seeing Machines and set a share price target of 15p, versus the last closing price in London of 5.32p1.

[nvhltd] 09/1/2024 10:49

My suspicion is that this is to give the purchasing fleet manager the option to choose his DMS supplier without forcing him away from his preferred truck oem of choice. I suspect that the major truck makers will not enter into single source restrictive contracts with just one DMS supplier.

As an after manufacturer product without the limitations of cabin design / placement I think the fleet manager will cherry pick his dms system as he specs his truck. I don't believe Scania for example will limit potential sales by only offering a dms with a dms supplier without the monitoring option if a large safety orientated organisation wanted Scania trucks, but a dms with monitoring.

Scania will want to keep their loyal customers, but give its customers choices.

This is why I think the language around PO's instead of contracts is used and why SEE are uncertain around sales volumes because they don't know what a fleet manager / truck purchaser will want from his truck oem.

[boonboon] 09/1/2024 10:34

It's not as clear cut as volume in fleet. Our competitors are selling similar products granted, but as far as I'm aware, they're not selling the monitoring side.This is our main differential and I expect we can be more profitable with lower volumes than competitors.What will be interesting is the August kpi's, which will be an early indication of the initial success.

[nvhltd] 09/1/2024 10:00

The next self-imposed deadline is the March / April production start for Gen 3. The way they write RNS's always leave me with more doubts and deflated.

While the competition clearly talk about actual contracts we talk in riddles about Purchase Orders received.

I'm assuming a contract order in this regard give the dms provider a definitive minimum order quantity which will be bought, but a PO suggests that the truck maker has a little more freedom to call off a gen 3 unit only if and when one is needed?

It would certainly help investors understand the change in language used between previous auto wins (contracts) and fleet (PO's).

If we are going to use the term PO's for fleet and we have received PO's already in significant amounts then why can't these numbers be released? My only rationale for withholding the numbers in the PO's received is that they are might not lead to actual sales?

[boonboon] 09/1/2024 07:06

Good that they've announced Gen3. Just need to get some orders.

[boonboon] 08/1/2024 16:58

I don't think SEE have their own stand. They usually collaborate on partner stands.

[nvhltd] 08/1/2024 16:18

If CES starts tomorrow and Gen 3 is displayed on our stand then it must be a reasonable assumption to expect the Gen 3 RNS launch tomorrow.

[nvhltd] 08/1/2024 14:54

The following is from the Investor Meets presentation in October 2023. So in the 12 months since tye London Town Hall meeting where there was little or no competition in the aftermarket space the market is now "crowded".

Question 21:

Has Smarteye caught up with See in the commercial vehicle space?

The Commercial Vehicle space is crowded. We never underestimate our competition, but we can say that Seeing Machines has been working in this sector for years and now have over 51,900 connections.

[nvhltd] 08/1/2024 14:30

I'm afraid Paul's comment about being the only one to tender is now clearly outdated. Since the London Town Hall meeting at the end of 2022 they failed again to deliver on a stated target of launching Gen 3 before the end of financial year 2023 without explanation and in the time since then we have not only seen Smarteye and Cipia announce their own products, but actually announce deals. Cipia have even announced a truck deal today. It does beg the question why we haven't announced any aftermarket deals despite the suggestion that we are responding to RFQ'S where supposedly there was no competition?

[barriew] 07/1/2024 16:54

Paul said 10% but realistically it’s going to be a lot lot higher from 2026.
We are the leader in miles travelled and with gen 3 which is based on our car DMS should get sone large contracts coming through, Paul stated they were asked for quotes on large orders where there was no competition. Perhaps they have someone else bidding after that announcement but I’m hoping for gen 3 launch this week and new contracts over the following weeks.

[nvhltd] 05/1/2024 10:43

BoonBoon. Thanks for the clarification. I knew Seeing Machines couldn't be straightforward with their reply. Your explanation explains why there isn't a mandate for a camera based DMS and that alternative sensors can be used to satisfy the July 2024 legal requirements.

It also explains why SEEING Machines aren't sure how much of the market they may take from July if non camera systems can satisfy the initial regulations.

[boonboon] 05/1/2024 10:24

Drowsiness can be detected in multiple ways. Distraction is camera only. Detecting drowsinessHow does technology help to recognize that drivers may need to take a break?Steering behavior monitoring: using sensors to detect changes in steering behavior, audible or vibrating alerts will notify the driver if they appear to be drowsy.Eye tracking: tracking the driver's eye movements with cameras and image-processing algorithms helps to identify signs of drowsiness.Heart rate and respiration monitoring: by monitoring heart rate and respiration, these systems can determine if the driver is at risk of falling asleep at the wheel and issue an alert to help wake them up.Brainwave monitoring: EEG sensors can detect brainwave pattern changes and provide potentially sleepy drivers with 

[nvhltd] 05/1/2024 10:16

I received this from Sophie:

"The regulation is staggered. From 7 July 2024, all new registrations will require technology to detect drowsiness. This then escalates to include distraction from 2026".

hxxps://guardian.seeingmachines.com/aftermanufacture

It seems pretty clear to me that if Guardian 3 is a device to detect drowsiness then it needs to be fitted to all trucks and buses sold in Europe from July 7th. That's a potential market size of 330K a year or 27,500 per month.

What staggers me is that Paul claims that there are very few competitors, but is only predicting 10% of the market. Yet in auto they are confidently forecasting 40% by sales and 50% by revenue.

Who are the "very few competitors" in the commercial space that are forecast to take 90%.

[davemac3] 04/1/2024 23:30

Mobileye profit warning in USA, shares fall 25%

[longsight] 04/1/2024 20:21

neat video on aviation [though 8 months old]

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 13:43

I've sent an email to Sophie in the hope she can clarify.

[boonboon] 04/1/2024 13:31

Like I said I believe DMS is only required on new models from July this year. It doesn't apply to all vehicles till 2026.Although I agree there is some ambiguity.

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 13:30

I'll be relieved if and when they announce gen 3 at CES and confirm that manufacturing is on track to meet the July deadline.

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 13:27

The Smarteye announcement you referenced states that their tech will go into "some" of their vehicle models and also states that installations will start in 2025 with significant ramp up in 2026.

It doesn't explain or clarify who's dms system will be used from July. I'm obviously hoping it's Seeing Machines.

[boonboon] 04/1/2024 13:23

Cipia also a player in that market https://cipia.com/news/cipia-awarded-10-additional-car-models-with-leading-chinese-automaker-chery-2/Hopefully gen3 will launch with some contracts from the off.

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 13:20

Thanks.

I haven't been as proactive in my research into SEE and the market drivers for 12 months or more because I was becoming more and more annoyed with the delays and BS from Paul. The past 12 to 18 months have been very disappointing despite the relationships being developed.

The Smarteye announcement might not be all they seem if some are to be believed, but just looking at their news announcements over the same period and one would have to be mightily impressed compared to our. Only yesterday they announced a new partnership and in the past year many dms wins and a worldwide truck oem contract.

I'm just nervous about our stated target of 10% of the truck market considering our experience over the years. I would have expected more upbeat forecasts. It seems to contradict with their statements about the lack of competition even though at least 3 dms companies will be at CES with fleet products and others claim to have fleet products.

[boonboon] 04/1/2024 13:01

They have a built in option.https://smarteye.se/investors/press-releases/press-detail/?slug=smart-eye-announces-eight-breakthrough-driver-monitoring-system-design-wins-for-commercial-vehicles

[nvhltd] 04/1/2024 11:58

Again BoonBoon I'm not sure you are correct in your assertion that Smarteye have a mass volume commercial dms product. In fact I hope you are wrong. This is their CES announcement for their AIS product:

"AIS
/ Intelligent driver support for safer roads


AIS is Smart Eye’s complete hardware and software driver support system for small-volume vehicle manufacturers and aftermarket installation for vehicle fleets. Using AI-based technology to detect driver distraction and drowsiness, AIS is a flexible and scalable in-cabin safety system designed to reduce road accidents. A camera-based system that never records or stores any footage of the driver, AIS lets fleets enhance safety without ever compromising on privacy.

Our demo will showcase the system’s ability to detect drowsiness, distraction, and dangerous driver behavior in any situation. Come see how AIS lets vehicle manufacturers smoothly adopt highly accurate drowsiness detection in their vehicles, guaranteeing immediate compliance with the EU’s General Safety Regulation (GSR)".

The question is when they say "small-volume" does that mean they class all commercial vehicles sold in Europe (330K per year) as small-volume or is small-volume an amount within the 330K total addressable commercial market?