Scottish & Newcastle Share Discussion Threads

[roby37] 05/4/2007 13:55

Something fishy about this "carp" then Bob :) The price certainly now has a bid element possibly even before the recent rise. No bid and it may well see 530- 550 in the near future at which it is back to being underpinned by the, albeit modestly, rising dividend.The minimum for a successful bid would appear to be 650. As J3419 says all guess work and doubtful if dresdner is the font of knowledge.

[bigbobjoylove] 05/4/2007 12:51

don't worry i'm still happily short 609 and 590, must say they are holding up well. Even realists have to admit no pillock of a chairman would pay anything over 500-550p for this carp. Even Kleinwort has told the market. First decent down day and this dog will be shot at.

[john3419] 05/4/2007 12:15

dresdner is guessing...like the rest of us!

[maiseymouse] 05/4/2007 07:44

dresdner says sell as it reckons there is little chance of a bid

[coogar] 04/4/2007 13:42

John3419

I think you'll find SCTN a reasonably safe haven, whatever happens in Iran.

It's a defensive play, though I have to admit the high yield argument is looking more stretched with every leap in the share price!

Still holding too (though even I might be tempted to cut and run)...

[roby37] 04/4/2007 12:17

Hi J3419
No advice intended, but I still have my long term 3000 shares and holding, at least until there is some definite news. In any case I won't act before 6th April.

[john3419] 04/4/2007 11:38

I just meant the whole market will fall if Iran turns nasty....taking sctn down also
anyway I'm glad to be still holding...but getting near to a sell??

[roby37] 04/4/2007 11:33

RNS. 3.16% stake Credit Agricole Asset Management Group

[ramian3] 04/4/2007 11:04

I hope it is not bigbob's shirt.

[jezboy1] 04/4/2007 08:44

Going to be a serious about of short-squeezing going on......

can I smell burning?

[roby37] 04/4/2007 08:03

Time there was a statement from SCTN! One wonders if some of these 1m + buys I referred to previously were purely speculative!
J3419 While I broadly agree with your opinion on the market I don't think Iran is so critical to sctn.

[badtime] 03/4/2007 18:52

i do rembr saying from ol bigbobbyjoybags that this was gonna b seriously down the day he shorted...hmmm..lol...wrong!!

[john3419] 03/4/2007 18:10

as I said a couple of days ago it's all a guess , up-down, NOBODY knows and if a bullet gets fired in Iran all bets are off

[roby37] 03/4/2007 16:20

We should have been sceptical of all those analysts and commentators saying it was without substance. When everyone agrees, they are often wrong! BBJL doing some serious thinking before the Easter break. With a share price around the same level as 5 years ago sctn needs some fresh thinking/management.

[jezboy1] 03/4/2007 15:36

Highest close in several years.... and who said the bid story was rubbish?

[jezboy1] 03/4/2007 15:01

Righto - so your short is just a defensive measure, fair enough.

How about u bigboy - U still in and as confident as ever? :-)

[roby37] 03/4/2007 10:51

Hi jb1,
I am not a trader. Some of the comment you referred to previously about BBJL stemmed from his being a "trader" while others were "investors".
My position on sctn. I hold long term, however I added(50%) at 542cd on 26/3, unusual for me, I sold at 599xd on 30/3. I still have my long term holding. I have no problem with "shorters" just not my scene. I would probably add if sctn went to c.530 in the near term, but there are always plenty of other fish.

[jezboy1] 03/4/2007 10:19

like I said roby, something must be up given the shareprice is consistently
supported in the mid-580s...

are u short yet?

[roby37] 03/4/2007 09:46

For whatever reason SCTN is holding up better than might have been expected while most commentators are dismissing the bid talk as rumour only. I rather agree with AO148009's view with a likely fall back the 530's but that is not what the market is saying at present!

[dennieg] 03/4/2007 06:09

Market Insider report:-

UBS raises its price target to 600p from 570p.

They don't believe the bid story!

[maiseymouse] 03/4/2007 06:05

does anyone believe this bid story? Yet another broker pouring cold water over it

[jezboy1] 02/4/2007 14:51

WoW - there's a real battle going on around the mid-580s, the bulls
are clearly not going to give up without a fight.

Roby37 as you correctly guessed I'm sitting on the sidelines atm
watching with interest whilst munching on my sandwiches.

What I am curious about is that *logic* seem to suggest that this
whole SCTN takeover story has to be a load of old cobblers (hence the
reason why I sold out) -

the reason, well as far as I am aware there are major competition issues
with the Carlsberg bid (Ditto Heiniken - sp?) something about the EU having
a fit....

That leaves the dark-horse South Africans, but the bid would be effectively
half SABs market cap, ambitious to say the least, and I have no idea
where the money is supposed to come from.

Leaving, one other possibility. That all of this is a smoke-screen for
a private equity bid..... but again that *just* doesn't feel right.

So bottom-line, I'm sceptical. But that doesn't detract from the fact
that it's presently getting decent support, and as u say there are some
very very big trades flying about. There is of course, one other possibility -
a merger with SAB? Dunno, how that would pan-out.

Meaning, I'm gonna sit on my hands until the support goes and then
join BBJL in turning to the dark-side. Otherwise, I will be waiting
for any obvious news and jump in long as fast as possible. The fact
is I am quite certain that there are plenty of shorters lined up trying
to knock this down, and if something *did* appear then the fur would really fly
(short-squeeze big time).

good luck

[a0148009] 02/4/2007 14:38

Relatively this is being let down rather gently - looking for 580 then 570 and lower the longer time passes without any positive news for the longs.

AO

[roby37] 02/4/2007 14:36

jezboy1
I take it from your interest you are looking to come back in. If so what sort of share price do you have in mind.I haven't looked too carefully but over the past few days there seems to have been a majority of buys in the over 1m deals, none of them mine needless to say!
BBJL Just negative 50% of the time :)

[jezboy1] 02/4/2007 13:45

here we go.... bears are testing the support line again... can they breach it?