Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 18:33

which means

valuations per patient would have to be considered using NICE formula

which brings us back to square one again

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 18:32

fine ...

but that then creates a problem as Ruck was trying to use the expenditure to that point as a gauge to market size, when you cannot because it's already been spent

thus Moditope technically could be a Brand new market if we know the exact point of vaccine delivery to staging

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 18:29

......but we have been told by Lindy Durrant that the setting for Moditope is late stage, bulky tumours - so would you agree that at least Modi1 will target stage IV breast cancer patients? It may be that it's also suitable for some earlier stages but for now stage IV would be a reasonable assumption?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 18:12

I refer back to my original post that we discussed


inanaco - 21 Mar 2019 - 18:26:02 - 21036 of 21136 Using immunology to fight cancer. - SCLP
that is what i replied to Bermuda

ruckrovers post


""""Did anyone manage to find out how much the market for triple negative breast cancer is?
I believe it will be one of the first MODI in human trials.""""

answered perfectly with

"""the issue is staging ... to try to assess market size, moditope is a late stage treatment as such we do not yet know the optimal staging thus its difficult to predict patient numbers, because many that fall through early diagnosis will not do well because of the aggressive nature of the decease. """

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 18:05

Inanaco,

So do you see Modi1 as a first line treatment for late stage TNBC?

[the real lozan] 22/3/2019 18:00

Most intelligent I Qs would agree / DO agree =
NOT -"what "if" funding then"
BUT
WHEN " funding then " ???

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:51

Good ....lozan

so we don't have to discuss

what "if" funding then

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:48

patients die from cancer ..

don't you get it

they are untreatable

moditope could prevent that so it generates a "new market"

because Moditope is a late stage

you cannot "generate a true" market size based on early stage treatments "VALUE"

in other words a patient could receive Immunobody ... before Moditope .. but not the other way round

[gazza] 22/3/2019 17:41

Inan,

Could you please respond specifically to this request:

Inan,

You said
""let's take an untreatable cancer""

I said, OK which one?

So which untreatable cancer do you want to take so we can look at its market potential? I'm sure I will be able to find a correlation between number of cases and spend, differentiating between those with treatment and those currently without. We can then superimpose the with pattern onto the without group.

[ivyspivey] 22/3/2019 17:40

Gazza,Absolutely and yes so many posts to try and read and digest.
However the first deal is the most important to most market investors/ traders as it validates the science and of course the amount of the payment.
For the vast majority of people on AIM you can tell them the science is fantastic and potential enormous and they will truly respond to excellent trial results if they understand the significance which is not always clear( hence I am always sure you can probably buy in here on significant trial news)but certainly they will respond to a deal.
So with a market cap of £25m or whatever and a deal is announced for £20m the traders etc will pile in without understanding whether it us a good deal or not,

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:26

so you cannot use, lets say the existing expenditure of stage 1 patients in your calculations because it's already been spent

[gazza] 22/3/2019 17:25

Ivy, very true but....

The deals don't change what the potential worth of the drugs are. The deals will bring the share price closer to the potential value. I did make this point earlier but there have been so many today it wouldn't be difficult to miss.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:24

so for instance

Moditope cannot become "standard of care" at stage 1 cancer

so it has NO market in that area

SCIB1 and immunobody can .....

[ivyspivey] 22/3/2019 17:22

Trying to tap into what seem some informative posts but of course the deals are relevant.They are the most important bit in that they totally validate the science and are proof of concept of commercialising that science.
It is the deaks that bomb proof the market cap as they are what the market fully understands and avoids the need to raise funds

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:22

gazza

TNBC ... patients die from it ...

Don't you get it ?

if you save them you have "Created a new market"

[ivyspivey] 22/3/2019 17:22

Trying to tap into what seem some informative posts but of course the deals are relevant.They are the most important bit in that they totally validate the science and are proof of concept of commercialising that science.
It is the deaks that bomb proof the market cap as they are what the market fully understands and avoids the need to raise funds

[gazza] 22/3/2019 17:08

Inan,

You said
""let's take an untreatable cancer""

I said, OK which one?
So which one do you want to take and we can crunch the numbers?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 17:04

Gazza

The issue is you are looking at "what is being spent"

rather than looking at what scancells is doing which is "creating a new market"

so to do that you have to look at what is actually being spent on the whole market

and its subsequent cost attributed and its potential to increase with the wealth of nations

basically you are not looking at the way capitalism works .. because your estimating based on existing markets not the value created new ones

so could you have predicted the size of the internet in 1985 ? No ..

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:57

Inan,
""let's take an untreatable cancer
in effect it has no market
no product exists
so how can you gauge the market size against current expenditure ?""

OK, which one (untreatable cancer) do you want to take?

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:37

Inan,

"but the cost to society as a whole – including costs for loss of productivity – is £18.3 billion.8 May 2015"

Unfortunately, these consequential costs are unlikely to make there way into the Scancell revenue stream and therefore influence the share price. Thanks for playing though.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 16:35

Bermuda,
Many thanks for that. It looks like head and neck is about the same as Sarcoma value wise, not big numbers. There are big discrepancies in the estimates which I assume is down to HPV/non HPV. I have taken the smaller figure.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 16:29

gazza


Currently NHS market size

Every year, over 250,000 people in England are diagnosed with cancer, and around 130,000 die as a result of the disease. Annual NHS costs for cancer services are £5 billion, but the cost to society as a whole – including costs for loss of productivity – is £18.3 billion.8 May 2015

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 16:28

Gazza,

According to the last 2 RNS announcements Sarcoma has been replaced by head and neck cancer - buried in the text. If you want to look at that be careful as I assume it doesn't include HPV head and neck cancer.