Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 15:09

which is why i am trying to explain to you that Success with Moditope

could be transformative ... because its capable of treating patients that PD-1s cannot treat ... as well as can treat at a far higher efficacy via multiple routes

and to do so without toxicity across 17 cancers at this stage

your £1.87 is meaningless in context because its the tip of the iceberg for this group of epitopes

[panama7] 22/3/2019 15:06

Inanaco, Avacta Market Cap £40m at preclinical stage as opposed to Scancell £20m after a successful trial and over 7 years of research and development. Seems one Company's BOD are doing their job.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 15:04

Inan,

""which one has failed""
None have failed. We all agree on that. The commercialisation and valuation is based on SUCCESS. The valuation if it failed would be zero.

""you just do not understand Scancell at all and the way Big Pharma can transform this in days ...once its understood the potential""

Sorry, it is you who don't understand some basic commercial realities. We are trying to value Scancell based on success. The science behind that success is irrelevant, the only important thing is it works. IF it works then potentially it can grap a slice of a market that has a somewhat static value (OK, it is predicted to rise a bit year on year due to increased population and people getting sicker/older.

The commercial opportunity does not increase because the science is different, clever or Prof Durrant has a glint in her eye. The probability of success may well be different but we are only analysing the SUCCESS part of the binary options so please stop obfuscating.

The fantastic results (if and when achieved) and the news bulletins will NOT increase the potential market value but hopefully it will close the gap between the SP, currently 5.85p and its potential value £1.87 (for 4 targets)

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:55

bermuda

In relation to the thread "Values"

It changes the pre clinical value of the combination of the SCIB1 keytruda trial

if you accept that SCIB1 generates CD4/ CD8 T cells that work in Humans and Keytruda locks out the PD-1 ligand on those CD8 T cells ..

[bermudashorts] 22/3/2019 14:49

Inanaco,


I can easily answer that one - neither has failed. What's your point?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:47

Gazza you post

Wake up! Yes I am valuing a future point - the next 3-5 years for 2 SCIB and 2 MODI targets. MODI1 hasn't even started phase 1 trials yet. How far ahead do you think another 15 targets are going to take? 10-15 years. Too late for my pension fund!

you just do not understand Scancell at all and the way Big Pharma can transform this in days ...once its understood the potential

collaboration of 3 epitopes TCR is the beginning of this process with BioNtech
the modi1 trail PHASE 1 could be transformational moment

BBC news .. Scancell in its phase 1 trial cures 3 patients of cancer !! that is the potential of the immune response ... it destroys cancer

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:42

I have given you avacta Mcap £40m preclinical

twice that of scancell

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:41

well value it ...

i am not stopping you

I have already given you a mass of data on SCIB1 you only have to read my history back a month or two a go

you can add in the "mouse" posts with Tosh ..

you can add in the quality of my posts around T cell function with keytruda and how the mechanism of action cannot fail otherwise

SCIB1 has failed

or keytruda has failed

which is why Bermuda could never answer that question .. "which one has failed"

[gazza] 22/3/2019 14:36

Inan,

""explain how Merck has an exclusive license? ""

They don't and I never said they did.
But if this works, they would be stupid not to try and negotiate one.
Or as Panama asks, why haven't they signed up already. It could always be conditional on result criteria.

""how can Opdivo on its own compete with an "approved Combo of Merck and SCIB1" which could be owned by any Major Pharma if they sign up with Scancell and run a phase 3""

Maybe they won't. If SCIB1 becomes they de facto then either Opdivo have to get a deal or Merck gets 100% market share. Makes no difference to Scancell. I said this earlier, don't you see it?

""If you are going to value a future point ie phase 2 trials of modi1
then you have to consider the Whole package not just TNBC because it forms part of a Group of 17 cancers""

Wake up! Yes I am valuing a future point - the next 3-5 years for 2 SCIB and 2 MODI targets. MODI1 hasn't even started phase 1 trials yet. How far ahead do you think another 15 targets are going to take? 10-15 years. Too late for my pension fund!

[panama7] 22/3/2019 14:32

Inanaco, you have just stated Merck have an exclusive license, can you tell us how much they paid Scancell for that exclusivity and why Scancell have not RNS'd it as I am sure it would have a very significant impact on the Shareprice and would alleviate any requirement for funding.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:29

why would they need to ?

after all the trial is with keytruda so they have guaranteed sales

surely if the data is impressive then other options for them come into play

[gazza] 22/3/2019 14:27

Panama,
Good question.

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 14:21

read the posts again .. it may help

explain how Merck has an exclusive license ?

how can Opdivo on its own compete with an "approved Combo of Merck and SCIB1" which could be owned by any Major Pharma if they sign up with Scancell and run a phase 3

you then posted

""""very interesting but still don't get the point in relation to valuing the Scancell pipeline. The only factors in my valuation are:"""

you have not valued the pipeline, because the pipeline is Today ... you are trying to value a future position .. so it's an estimate of value

i tried to explain how complex that was by using Avacta ... purely based on preclinical values and how the market places value because it has a direct comparison ie PD1 to PD1

yet that is the worse position to be in as you are competing with similar technology

this is what i was trying to explain with MTFB .. it was competing against vancomycin an off patent cheap generic which means its value has to come from Subgroups within the trials

what i look for in a bIo .. is certainty of market share ... not uncertainty of market share

Avacta has uncertainty because by the time it gets into trial the competition could be streets ahead

If you are going to value a future point ie phase 2 trials of modi1

then you have to consider the Whole package not just TNBC because it forms part of a Group of 17 cancers

[panama7] 22/3/2019 14:09

Gazza/Inanaco, as we are trialling SCIB1 with Keytruda why on earth haven't Merck signed an exclusivity option dependant on results. they appear to have shown no interest whatsoever.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 13:57

Inan,

Sorry, missed the significance of this part of your post:

"if SCIB1 and keytruda become the "current standard of care" they would have to trial with SCIB1"

If the standard of care was something + SCIB1 it would not make a difference to Scancell whether the SCIB1 was a sale in combination with Keytruda, Opdivo or whatever. The market value is the same, they are just getting access through a different partner.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 13:54

Inan,

Your 21060, very interesting but still don't get the point in relation to valuing the Scancell pipeline. The only factors in my valuation are:

Market Value
Market Share percent,
Gross Profit or License Fee
Dilution factor

Do you have anything to contribute to any of these?

[gazza] 22/3/2019 13:50

>it could also capture Opdivo sales <<br />
Not if Merck have an exclusive license for SCIB1, why would they let Bristol in on it?

In my forecast I have used the TOTAL global market for melanoma treatment, so this would include both Keytruda and Opdivo. The take up by Merck would simply increase Scancel's market share (presuming Merck have a sufficient share already)

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 12:40

gazza

It's not just Keytruda melanoma sales ... it could also capture Opdivo sales if they cannot compete against the Combo with SCIB1

we could capture 45% of this market (HLA suitable)

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 12:32

the point i am making

they are going head to head with established PD-1 products who will also be going for combination

hxxps://immuno-oncologynews.com/relatlimab/


Pipeline
Avacta has a pre-clinical stage biopharmaceutical pipeline of Affimer therapeutic candidates for in-house development and partnering. Our focus is on immuno-oncology (IO), a therapeutic area for which the Affimer technology has several key benefits. Avacta’s lead pre-clinical programme is a PD-L1/LAG-3 single molecule bispecific inhibitor. The second major pre-clinical programme is based on the ground-breaking TMAC platform and is a PD-L1 tumour microenvironment targeted I-DASH inhibitor. Beyond these two main programmes, the company is building a portfolio of I-O antagonists and agonists to support future programmes and partnering.


so They are getting deals because of the markets impression that a market exists
ie its known

but it's still pre clinical ..

I have explained this before ... they will have to go up against the "current standard of care"

if SCIB1 and keytruda become the "current standard of care" they would have to trial with SCIB1

the Vaccine immunobody is a core component that can used with most Checkpoints so the market share does not diminish with competition from checkpoints

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:21

Inan,

Your 21057.
What's your point?

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:19

Inanaco,

You make a valid point.

"so far i have seen nothing that is representative for the simple reason Keytruda is a standard of care treatment .. with proven sales, so if you can pretty well double efficacy why would you only achieve 5% market penetration."

If it improves efficacy then it should be sold with every keytruda melanoma treatment.

Do you know what the value of Keytruda melanoma sales are?
What percentage of this do you think will go to Scancell?
Are you assuming a licencing deal will be done with Merck?
What if Merck are outbid by, say, Roche? How will it be split three ways?

[inanaco] 22/3/2019 12:15

Gazza

just take this share as an example ..

Hardman & Co: A second wake-up call for the market

Avacta (AVCT) is a pre-clinical stage biotechnology company and the proprietary owner of Affimer technology. Affimers represent a radical alternative to the established antibody technology. The significant technical and commercial benefits of Affimers are being increasingly recognised, evidenced by corporate and academic interests, ongoing evaluations and deal flow. AVCT has just announced that, following a review period, Moderna has exercised its option to enter into an exclusive licensing agreement to further develop certain Affimer therapeutics for undisclosed targets. This is the second licensing deal with a major pharma player in the past few months.


pre-clinical stage biotechnology

[tosh123] 22/3/2019 12:12

Thanks Gazza.

[gazza] 22/3/2019 12:11

BTW, I personally don't believe anything near 100% is at all feasible.

But for those who like cloud cuckoo land, if we were to get 100% of global revenue in all 4 targets the share price would be £37.39. (that's including 100% dilution) -

you see why I'm not bothered about dilution, only about lack of cash and/or lack of licensing deals.