Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 18:28

no you didn't Ivy .... you can't claim a win without posting it first

i can imagine in World war 2 ... as a pilot you downed all the planes in your sector ... even without ammunition

[gazza] 18/11/2024 18:28

Mia,"Bottom line is that these shares are fantastic value at the current price with SCIB1 now further de-risked"What you have to consider is do you think they are still fantastic value factoring in 100% dilution? 200%, 300%?Whilst no reason to sell what are already held, perhaps a little caution on further investment is being shown until the funding becomes clearer. Personally, I think that is the single reason for the fall.

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 18:26

i do understand but its gibberish "today" .... it means absolutely nothing as we are funded to end of these trials ... and results really do affect what you can raise and deals announced might affect that

you seem to want to fit the wheels without the stub axles Gazza

[ivyspivey] 18/11/2024 18:22

At 8am I was monitoring the live prices and did sell a small number as this action was predicable but you have to understand how this market works but you have not got a clue.
You really should listen to Tyke and you might learn something

[gazza] 18/11/2024 18:22

"serious question What will stop the share price rise ???"What share price rise? My screen shows a 5.5% fall. Did you mean to ask "what will stop the share price FALL?" Well, it doesn't seem that good news prevents a fall. However, what some fail to realise is that it's NOT all about the science. Burble, who probably knows more about the science than all of us put together, knows this and can comment sensible on financials. As Inan doesn't understand, he has to resort to calling it "gibberish". So the only thing that will stop the slide is clarity on funding. So do we need this NOW. Technically no, but the sooner this unknown is removed, the sooner the share price can find a sensible level. So you have to decide: Are you on the reality railway or the looney lunar rocket?

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 18:19

good post Mia ...

what we do know private investors are buying up Calculus shares

[chilltime] 18/11/2024 18:18

Mia

It does have the mass following yet, the lack of the spike held that at bay which is not a bad thing, they are a liability.

Better for other deals (glymabs) due, to start dropping in before they arrive.

[miavoce] 18/11/2024 18:11

Shame is that based on the quality of these results the share price really should have gone up strongly today - these results wipe the floor with existing treatments. So why didn't the share price go up ? IMO this was because of combination of the following.

1. Somebody is still dumping large blocks of shares - Calculus ? Who knows. Held the price back.
2. Punters incorrectly took the lack of a rise as a signal that the result weren't all that great and either sold or didn't buy.
3. The market doesn't understand how good these results really are.
4. The ORR fell short of the earlier 85% and this was taken as a negative despite the fact that the ORR achieved is 50% better than the current best (72% vs. 48%)

Bottom line is that these shares are fantastic value at the current price with SCIB1 now further de-risked and showing massive potential (and surely of interest to a partner). The snippets of new info on Modi1 shared in the interview were also very positive.

I believe that once the market has digested today's news we will see the share price move north steadily.

[chilltime] 18/11/2024 18:08

Well no not really Nigel they would have been hit with redemptions as per Labour being voted in and the subsequent budget fear.

They consider Scancell to be currently undervalued (as per their comments) but redemptions are what they are.

[chilltime] 18/11/2024 18:05

So in short as some of those triggers are short term perhaps $10-$15m including a new deal, it's probably best to wait until those drop in before getting your calculator out.

But then on SC134

They wouldn't be discussing it with anyone unless the interest (value terms) is material.

It changed from a lead in house clinical asset, to open to licensing. As stated they have broad, strong commercial interest, which obviously means multiple keen companies interested.

Scib1/Iscib same point, strong interest from multiple companies.

And if they ever do need money not the small cap regulars, two new holders last raise are very AIM untypical, one isn't that obvious, and requires work to understand where the money behind it is.

[2tyke] 18/11/2024 17:59

No what happened pre 8am inane was you coming on here implying that the share price was gonna rocket.
You were wrong again....still confusing scientific progress with stock prices.
Two very different things.

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 17:54

you better join the trump camp on conspiracy theory Nigel ... you could be Health sec one day

[nigelpm] 18/11/2024 17:52

Very lumpy trades today causing price to go down.

Calculus dumping one would think - wonder if they share Jak's view?

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 17:51

money of course talks ....

Did Ivy come on here at 8am telling us he sold because of Burbles Drivel and he thought the Science was not up to the mark ?

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 17:46

serious question What will stop the share price rise ???

and in light of the share price do you want to take the Bet ?

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 17:45

Ivy exactly what will stop the share price now ?

Lindy gave a Probability which was correct

[ivyspivey] 18/11/2024 17:37

Nana said ORR would be 87/88%, no leaky ship,SP going to moon and all about the number you Hold.
Well he has been proved wrong again and the market has spoken.
We have rice to help him but nothing so blind as those that do not want to see.

[chilltime] 18/11/2024 17:29

Jak

Fair questions about funding but the company have repeatedly given the same reply, so the first point is funding for what at 12p, do you mean day to day running as it certainly won't include anything to do with phase 2/3 now as they have 3 different phase 2 trials in play on the same topic (melanoma), but focussing on what they have said.

On the phase 2/3 that decision will come post trial results along with consideration of partner offers, there is strong interest we'll have to wait and see at a minimum at the end of H1.

On a smaller raise day to day running, there are a number of factors in play to extend the cash runway

First up the Genmab phase 1 trial which triggers a single digit $millions payment which is likely well before the timeframe and could be due in weeks.

The up front was about $5m so I'd guess the Phase 1 will be about the same.

Next up the exclusive deal Glymab review, Scancell are expecting a yes/no in December as the exclusivity runs out in January, either way a yes in either month triggers an up front, probably single figure $millions there.


So those probably $10m or so.


Then you have other deals on the other 3 glymabs, more than one of those they are in talks, they have stated that, it's probably all 3. It's been that way for some time so they could trigger any day.

BUT within those 3 is SC134, which is likely to see an upfront front of multiples of the others put together.

SCLC was an unloved oncology sector and has only gained serious immunotherapy interest in the last few years. As 250,000 per year suffer with it and 70% usually diagnosed at the advanced stage it's a gaping hole in the oncology market, and now a Glymab, owned by Scancell has caused broad commercial and strong interest in it.


Until about 3 months ago Scancell had no interest in partnering anyone on that, it's so good pre clinical with the target having very low expression on limited areas of healthy tissue, it's a very attractive target for an unmet need.


So the simple answer is there is a lot on the table that can generate cash near term, how much and how quickly will become apparent over the coming weeks and months. At which point we'll have much better idea on the cash runway.


As for who would be involved in a raise, on the last raise other funds were said to be interested but further down the line for larger amounts.

But then that is the outcome if partners currently in talks don't make an offer they consider in best interest of the company and shareholders.

[2tyke] 18/11/2024 17:28

Have you moon landed yet inane ?
Or are you back down to Earth...lol
Doesn't matter what stories you care to believe.
The stock price is headed where it's headed.

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 17:20

Ivy keeps raving about Burble the scientist

yet

No science ... just gibberish on funding


Burble

Posted in: SCLP

Posts: 1,178

Price: 16.25

No Opinion

RE: RNS - WOW!!Today 07:54
If I’m honest, my real worry is this will be breadcrumbs rather than a full meal. Again backloaded heavily. Hopefully the new CEO is able to be at that negotiating table.

Burble

Posted in: SCLP

Posts: 1,178

Price: 16.25

No Opinion

RE: RNS - WOW!!Today 07:44
‘Anticipated that all cohort 3 patients will reach week 25 during H2 2025.’

Am I reading this right that the iSCIB1+ trial has now slipped into the back half of the year? If funded through to Q3, that doesn’t leave a lot of cash on the table to fund the Ph2/3 trial - so hoping that either further glymab deals get done or partner pays for it.

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 17:11

well if they are perhaps buying out Calculus might be a shrewd move because that is what is causing the road block over supply on news

[rogerbridge] 18/11/2024 17:09

If Scancell remain independent, raising funds is not an issue. I believe one or more institutions were wanting to buy in but were asking for a larger stake.
BMS and others pipelines need what Scancell can offer.
A very good Proactive video.
I imagine Phil is very excited.

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 16:57

I tell you why the ORR will change over time

At the 6 month scan the double checkpoints achieve 48% ORR but by the end of the trial this increases to 55%

a 7% further rise over time ..

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 16:42

Great Video .... all good from me ...

i suspect we will see a bit more action as this detail settles in ...

don't forget the PD-1 treatment is one to two years plus 10 SCIB1 injections to get max effect

so 80% responders its still possible to increase ORR

but we have the Pass ... !! that's all we need to be commercial