Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[2tyke] 18/11/2024 16:11

As a general rule of thumb...
Technicians understand stock prices.
Fundamentalist investors like 'stories'

[sci102] 18/11/2024 16:11

Quick one as after what happened (including watching the latest interview) I really don't want to waste any more time with this company any longer. Selection of patients? WTF?
Note that in the first 13 it was 85%(11/13) while with the next 12 (to get to 25) it was 58% (7/12). Within statistical probabilities but I'll let LD explain to you by email what she meant by patient selection.

Here goes in bullets.

- SCIB included epitopes that were identified in patients that spontaneously recovered, so pre validated in a way. Not the case with iSCIB1+.

- As I mentioned more than a year ago, because iscib1+ has these new epitopes, we don't know how they work. Iscib1+ is
now fully recruited with non hla a2 patients, so surely we have data on some of those. No mention though on how they are doing. You get the drift.

- iscib1+ on the hla a2 population should perform similary to scib1 but here is the thing, in my view iscib1+ is not eligible for orphan designation because it addresses a larger population.

- Therefore if in non hla a2 patients efficacy of iscib1+ is not great and is no longer eligible for orphan drug status it makes no sense to move forward with it. That's because scib1 original patent is as good as expired so they either use orphan status with scib1 for 6 years exclusivity or they riak someone else copying scib1 and undercutting iscib1+ in hla a2 patients.

- They cannot use iscib1+ that has the patent extension to only target hla a2 patients and keep the orphan drug status because the FDA would view that as salami slicing which they don't allow since 5 years ago at least.

- Avidimab mechanism of action is that it increases residence time of a regular antibody on the antigen, making it "slow off". It's a neat trick (that can be copied by the wat by using a different dimerisation method). SCIB is not a regular antibody though, the regular variable reguon that normally binds to the antigen has been replaced with the melanoma epitopes.

- So why are scancell saying it has higher avidity in T cells. Well, they are the only ones saying that and the data is published in the patent I talked about in my first report (check my very first comment on this thread). There, in a mouse study they showed that iscib is a lot better than scib. In fact in that study scib had almost no activity at all. However, in the original mouse experiment (also shown in the same patent) where they tested scib (different mouse model), it was obviously active. So this high avidity t cell argument due to avidimab is based on a specific mouse model and smells rotten to me.

The good news is at least if scib1 continues to show >70% response to the end, that gives you a much quicker pathway to starting the phase 2/3. iSCIB1+ is dead in the water in my humblest of opinions but if they decide to wait for that, it now has to recruit the hla a2 patients (same as scib1). About 20 of them. Do the math with the several recruitment data points we have already from SCIB1 recruitment. You'd be lucky to have full iscib1+ data by end of 2025 in my view.

- Since the AACR presentation, they have stopped specifically referencing the recist 1.1 protocol in RNS or presentations. As explained several times, this includes indicating new lesions. For the first time LD mentioned new lesions in the interview but showing up before the 13 week timepoint. Whether that's the case or if something more than that is happening I don't care to think about anymore. As far as I am concerned the recist 1.1 protocol reference should be attached with any data presentation. It has not since last May.

I hope a decent deal comes to the rescue for you because if they need to raise again, I think it will be painful.

Good luck guys. And keep it real.

[2tyke] 18/11/2024 16:06

I wonder what the definition of 'game changing news' is ?
Poor old inane was on a rocket ride to the moon on today's news pre-market...lol
All hindsight...

[markingtime] 18/11/2024 16:05

I note there are several people pontificating about candles and cash burn. Neither of them have the faintest idea what they are talking about and, at least in one case, have missed some extremely fundamental points in their "research".They would do well to look up and note LD's AGM comments re manufacturing capacity.

[markingtime] 18/11/2024 15:58

The obvious answer, JakNife, is that game-changing news is expected. Selling various pieces of IP to fund development of others is the probable way forward...........but even if push came to shove, it wouldn't be difficult to raise. There is plenty of evidence of that over the last year.

[2tyke] 18/11/2024 15:44

SCLP has seen a massive rejection of rising price today. A reversal.
This fits the EW analysis which implies that price should move significantly below 12.5p
Events will just likely follow.

[2tyke] 18/11/2024 15:35

SP always leads...events are merely interpreted afterwards in hindsight.

[miavoce] 18/11/2024 15:34

Proactive interview.

8:57 - Head & Neck Modi1+single CP, has passed Simon stage 1 after only 9 weeks.

7:05 - Indicates that SCIB1 recruitments completes next week

Overall sounds very positive.

[ivyspivey] 18/11/2024 15:26

Hi Nigel,
Predictable share price reaction and as you said a leaky ship so sell on news.
Well crafted RNS and sone good results but people who heighten exoectations shoukd not be surprised that it disappoints.
Burble sums it up well.

[marcusl2] 18/11/2024 15:03

Very positive and good news about those Modi-1 responders.

[marcusl2] 18/11/2024 14:50

Scancell CSO Professor Lindy Durrant hails positive melanoma data

[bermudashorts] 18/11/2024 14:24

JakNife,

Why would they convert now? I don't follow your logic.

Redmile already hold 28.9% of Scancell and will not want to trigger a mandatory takeover so why convert when they already hold just under 270m shares which they could sell if they want to take some profit - nearly 100m of those were bought at 5.5p. So why would they convert and risk triggering a mandatory offer, but more importantly damage sentiment and adversely impact the value of what is by far the greater portion of their investment in SCLP ie. their existing holding?

By the way as part of the agreement to extend the redemption date the terms of the 13p CLNs were changed so they can now be converted at any time upon Redmile's request.

[jaknife] 18/11/2024 13:50

loglorry1,

"One assumes the conversion price will be reset on any dilution event."

Yes, it would be standard but only if the conversion price is above the placing price. In the case of Scancell they have two separate tranches of convertible loan notes referred to as "CLN 1" and "CLN 2" in note 12 to the accounts:



The balance of CLN 1 was £1.75m at the end of April whilst the balance of CLN 2 was £17.9m (note that the accounting balances are slightly lower as ... well that's how you have to account for them! Also some of CLN 2 was repaid in July this year and hence the balance now is £17.45m). The additional "liability" in the accounts relates to the derivative liability (I could be persuaded to ignore that as a real "liability" as it's only a liability to existing shareholders).

CLN 1 has the better terms, its conversion price has been previously reduced from 6.1p to 5.9p. The holders would be mad to not be thinking of converting now.

On the other hand CLN 2 is convertible at 13p and it looks as if that conversion can only take place at maturity. However, there are obviously other undisclosed terms to these notes as the accounts explain that:

"the Company was required to pay £450,000 of outstanding loan notes in July 2024."

So if, just as an example, a placing was done at 12p, then it would be perfectly normal for the conversion price of CLN 2 to be adjusted down whilst the conversion price of CLN 1 wasn't changed (or barely changed).

JakNife

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 13:47

it does not enrage any one chap ... our opinion is, if you don't know what you are buying ... don't buy it

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 13:45

every Oncologist working on the trial is paid by scancell as we sponsor it

that also applies to the majority of trials

[wad collector] 18/11/2024 13:37

It is notable that the positive comment on the latest results are from an oncologist who is described by her NHS post but it does not mention that she also has a role advising Scancell. Presumably a paid role. This should be acknowledged in this comment, as a vested interest. I realise that my comment will outrage the frequent posters here , but innocents on the sidelines should be aware of these things before gambling.

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 13:28

cash is spent on trials ............

it changes ... its not a fixed cost

[nigelpm] 18/11/2024 13:25

Definitely not unreasonable to take a view that funding will be challenging. Always been my concern also.

[loglorry1] 18/11/2024 13:16

"Also, doesn't it make sense for ALL of Scancell's convertible loan notes to be converted now whilst they are in the money? Surely it's better to take the profit now than wait for a potentially price depressing event such as a placing?"

One assumes the conversion price will be reset on any dilution event.

[jaknife] 18/11/2024 13:11

Chaps,

Could we just come back to a very sensible question that I asked sometime ago.

Does Scancell need to raise cash now?

The finals came out on 24 Sept this year:



They show cash of £14.8m at the end of April and state:

"Group cash balance at 30 April 2024 was £14.8 million (30 April 2023: £19.9 million) with cash runway through to the third calendar quarter of 2025 beyond near-term clinical milestones."

So:

1. They are claiming that they have enough cash to keep them going for about nine/ten months from now. If that's correct then when should they raise the cash that they need? Should the do that now and get a placing away at say 12p or should they wait to see if the market improves in 2025 and then try? What if the market doesn't improve?

2. I'd like to test that "cash runway" date. Looking at the 2024 accounts the cash burn was £15,660k (Net cash used in operating activities) and that would suggest that the cash (of £14.8m) might only be enough to last to the middle of March next year unless they can slash cash burn.


Also, doesn't it make sense for ALL of Scancell's convertible loan notes to be converted now whilst they are in the money? Surely it's better to take the profit now than wait for a potentially price depressing event such as a placing?

The balance sheet looks pretty poor as at the end of April - negative net assets (minus £3.5m) and more than £23.1m of convertible liabilities. Why are you all so positive?

JakNife

[2tyke] 18/11/2024 12:12

Buys simply don't matter inane..PRICE is absolutely everything.
Neither does trump matter to crypto.
Bitcoin is tracing the exact path EW expected since before he even got the Republican nomination.
As always....the sheep are very easily led !

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 11:44

ATCAMS i think .... long range investors just been approved by Biden

Meanwhile Trump and Elon line their pockets with Bit coin

Bitcoin has surged to a new record high above $90,000 since Trump’s election and, in an amazing change of heart, the Trump family benefits from its own cryptocurrency enterprise, called World Liberty Financial. It is a decentralised finance platform that the president-elect promoted heavily during his campaign. “What we want to do is take on a lot of the banking world,” his son, Donald Trump Jr, boasted in Aug.


Trump is seen as the cryptocurrency president, with expectations that he will do wonders for the industry by forcing regulators to support rather than prosecute cryptocurrency companies.

expect another fraud announced soon ... billions lost

easy money ....

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 11:38

interesting action .... big buys going through

[inanaco] 18/11/2024 11:23

who can afford a war ....