Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[inanaco] 14/11/2024 10:29

Ruckrover wrong ... Scancell is looking at ORR last year

your designer garbage was predicting ORR by deleting patients that progressed

my suggestion looks at PFS !!!

dont claim a victory when none exists ....................

[inanaco] 14/11/2024 10:26

Ruckrover ...

you mean the calculator that gives the right answer your critical of ...

because yours does not

Makes sense i suppose

[ruckrover] 14/11/2024 10:25

"what will be interesting is a time line prediction of shrinkage"Hallelujah! I've been trying to convince you that it is the shrinkage that needs analysing and forecasting for months. Only a small step but at least in the right direction.

[inanaco] 14/11/2024 10:25

marcus don't forget to add log to the list at 11p ...

[ruckrover] 14/11/2024 10:22

Inan, "why are you so critical of an off the shelf calculator"You really are clueless. I'm not criticising the calculator - it works fine.What I am criticising is your misunderstanding and misuse of it.

[inanaco] 14/11/2024 10:18

specimens are just as valuable to us .... because its a view we cannot normally see.
what is going on with our T cells in the TME

said it many times ...

we have the Great T cells

what we are trying to do is control the TME sufficient to give them a chance

[inanaco] 14/11/2024 10:13

what will be interesting is a time line prediction of shrinkage

because at the moment we are looking at patients that have exceeded 30%

but the intensity and continued shrinkage might take them to Complete response

it will be an interesting graph if just the 13 patient data was reviewed again

because then you can add PFS and DOR with another year in the time frame

if we do have failures ... and we can get a sample ... you can test for Modi1 Flags or ISCIB2

[inanaco] 14/11/2024 09:54

RuckRover14 Nov '24 - 09:31 - 14021 of 14022
0 0 0
Sci,
I have already said that my analysis may not be appropriate for clinical trial analysis.
In my application, NOT omitting the outliers would be a disaster.



So you admit your wrong and right at the same time ....

that needs an MT head wobble ....

if you cannot develop your own model because you are the expert . why are you so critical of an off the shelf calculator

as that is what your arguing against ... i did not develop it ..

but it does give the right answer

which yours didn't

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 09:53

Marcus

Re

Amazingly for a Bio, everything appears to be working! Immunobody, Moditope, Glymabs and Avidimab.

I wish others would, that’s where I get my info from. I’ve listened to every interview and read every presentation for the last year or two to fill gaps.

Questions in here are often about things already stated.

Not picking on Bermuda but he is vigilant but asked if it was ever said that they were mot completing scib1 BMS full cohort.

The answer is Yes Lindy said it in one one the proactive type interviews post data out and has since said decided to complete 43.

CFO end of May interview said Yes Genmab going to phase 1 in 2025 which triggers a single digit millions payment.

That was the first I knew it was definitely going into phase 1 and milestone confirmed.

AGM they said Genmab update in Dec.

So it’s worth listening to all interviews and reading presentations.

Back in May you could see patient 13 went CR by the time of the first scan.

If you don’t view the interviews and read presentations you miss quite a bit and thus build a view on incomplete information.

Potential new investors won’t have a clue that scib and modi exist.

Some are getting over excited about 1 response in their share, poor percentage of the total.

If they spend the time to read here they can catch on dried logs, cricket pitches and chicken/egg debates.

[nigelpm] 14/11/2024 09:46

It does look like the buyer is back for more.....

[ruckrover] 14/11/2024 09:31

Sci,I have already said that my analysis may not be appropriate for clinical trial analysis.In my application, NOT omitting the outliers would be a disaster.

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 09:17

Marcus

Re

The potential for even Moditope alone in multi-billions so for me it is a case of sit back and wait for a huge takeover.


Yep a few I know are doing exactly that with expectations as early as H2 2025.

Some know more than others so views vary of course.

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 09:14

My fave hamlet advert

[marcusl2] 14/11/2024 09:13

Well the thing that got me hooked a few years back was the 5 year Scib data.

I have tried to educate myself by listening to every word Lindy and Cliff Holloway presented over the years.

Amazingly for a Bio, everything appears to be working! Immunobody, Moditope, Glymabs and Avidimab.

The potential for even Moditope alone is multi-billions so for me it is a case of sit back and wait for a huge takeover.

I`ll not get too concerned about spikes and troughs.

In a perfect world I would love an all share or part cash offer for CGT reasons. I would not even mind owning Roche,Eli Lilly, Merck or BMS stock ! ;-)

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 09:06

In August time we had supplies feeding the demand.

Pre election it seemed some supply, probably CGT and inheritance tax fears fuelled activity. At least one was from an estate so likely they were busy pre election.

Is that supply done, could well be we’ll find out soon enough.

[phoenixs] 14/11/2024 09:05

Keep puffing on those Hamlets chilltime.

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 09:03

It’s bubbling Marcus, the run of 100k plus trades over the last week or so was a good clue.

The crazy 45p is about multiple buses arriving at once, if retail masses fly in on the back of it Moljen is the likely winner.

First up will they RNS anything Monday re Phil or in conjunction with Phil

[marcusl2] 14/11/2024 08:50

15th December 2020

Scancell had volume of 95 million and share price jumped from 14p to 29p in a day.

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 08:49

Oh and I think the likelihood of a retail mass rush into Scancell is at least 90%😂
(No stats experts employed in that forecast)

Note those 100k plus trades over the last 2 weeks, early days but activity from an angle busy in August is flickering.

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 08:42

As I posted before.

My first purchase of Scancell was to be 5/6p on a Friday afternoon. I had the account open ready to buy. I was distracted by someone wanting assistance so I closed it to buy Monday morning.

Over the weekend some complete tosspot media person put an article in the paper about Scancell, then Monday retail and the market obliged with an share price surge whilst I broke out the hamlet cigar, muttering to myself about the person who distracted me on the Friday. 🤯.

We know what happens, we know Scancell is a quiet share, we know what happens when the peace is disturbed by the masses.

It will happen, it’s just a matter of time.

Some of you will be puffing on hamlet cigars when that happens, I won’t.

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 08:34

Moving on

The Scancell quiet share comment and the impact of retail.

Two in this area as an example on AIM, that from time to time see good volumes.

Avacta and Angle, some here hold shares there.

X followers which is largely retail

Scancell 1,100
Avacta 8,500
Angle 15,000

8 fold snd 15 fold with well known AIM pump leads pushing the 2 companies hence the much larger following, most of which will be invested.

Volumes on both kick off at times causing surges.

Take an investor meet type event, Scancell might get 30 to 50 logging in to watch.

One of those had something like 1,500 plus logged in.

They are hype price move shares that attracted the retail masses with well known AIM pump types pushing them, to some extent retail hype CEOs to boot.

Scancell has not attracted the retail masses as yet, there are no well knowns pushing Scancell. Scancell do not shout and push, quite the opposite, which would please Redmile/vulpes. Thr science will do the talking.

The data will cause Scancell to start shouting, attraction of pump majors and retail is likely, media comment is likely.

Multiple major companies are already in discussions

So the simple point is 1000’s of retail could appear in a flash, that’s what happens when interest flies.


£5k buys you 35000 shares.

5000 retail buying an average of £5k is 175 million shares.

Obviously you can’t get 175m shares at 14p so the price takes off.

In reality the retail mix in those scenarios are anything from £500 holding to £50k and £100k plus.

So knowing the Scancell circs

Great data coming, multiple big names in talks.
Glymab talks, big interest in SC134.

Scib1 data is a huge leap forward, Scib2 multiple cancers sat in the background.

Modi clearly creating T cell proliferation (60% stable ovarian).

There is a lot coming about to highlight Scancell to the market and media with a lot of exciting things held in the stable.

Good luck to those ‘waiting’; but know the above.

[sci102] 14/11/2024 08:32

I won't bother commenting on inans nonsense. I am saying this to you because clearly you understand statistics yet you refuse to realise that in this space and for any reason, treating patients as outliers is a big no no. There are ways to exclude for breaking protocol, but the rules here are so strict that even then you have to include both analyses, with everyone regardless of what happened, and a per protocol one.

PS it is even worse when it concerns potential safety issues. In this case a patient with a rapidly progressing disease. If you treat this as an outlier to a regulator/pharma partner/potential investor/medical professional etc they will set your hair on fire and throw you out the window.

[ruckrover] 14/11/2024 08:09

"But it's not about that is it"What's it about then?

[chilltime] 14/11/2024 08:06

Haven’t you thrashed out the 90% thing enough.

Lindy said not her skill but the stats types forecast a 90% likelihood of 27 being hit ORR based on the 11/13 data.

That’s it.

But it’s not about that is it🙄🥱

[phoenixs] 14/11/2024 07:52

Let us just wait for the news and comment accordingly.
I think that it is, at this time, a waste to continue to throw “information” and personal opinions forwards and backwards when the company will report on trials in the near future and also release news on any major deals/funding as and when they are done.