Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 21:25

SC134


The logic is pretty simple there that they expect a substantial up front.

SC134 was to be Scancell baby, Lindy saying, phase one would add zeros to a deal.


Then it was noted a month or two ago, SC134 was shown as available for licensing, which caught the interest of a few. The SC134 paper came out in August.

Now Scancell say there is "broad commercial interest"

It won't be available on the cheap, cheap is no good, better to take it into phase 1 then talk if the offers are not right.

The points have been well covered about funding and the strategy. They intend to wait on Scib1/Iscib interest/offers and decided then.

Meanwhile as mentioned by the CEO they have potential near term non dilutive extra cash from a potential up front (anon Glymab company)

Phase 1 milestone with Genmab, update on the in December they said.


SC134

I can't see they doing less than 10's of millions up front on a deal, pre clinical is impressive and healthy tissue expression issues are very low.

So that's the surprise that is new, just these last few months.

[gazza] 13/11/2024 21:25

"i have no idea why Ruck feels something is missing ..."The only things missing:289 patients - where did 300 come from?Any grasp of statistics on your part.

[thelogman] 13/11/2024 21:24

Inman garbage is rubbish, just like the so performance here over many years all there to see.You still like a Guinness.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 21:20

AI Overview
Learn more
…
Yes, it's possible to predict a clinical trial's overall response rate (ORR) from a smaller trial, especially if the trial is single-arm and has a high ORR:

High ORR in single-arm trials
A high ORR in a single-arm trial can be a statistical endpoint for regulatory approval, especially if the ORR is above 30–45%.

Early-phase single-arm trials
A high ORR in an early-phase single-arm trial can be used as an initial basis for regulatory approval, especially if there are limited patients with the relevant driver alteration.

Surrogate endpoint
ORR can be used as a surrogate endpoint for accelerated approvals, with the requirement for later confirmation in randomized trials.

However, there are some limitations to using ORR in clinical trials:
Tumor assessment endpoints: Drug applications that rely solely on tumor assessment endpoints may need confirmatory evidence from a second trial.
Accuracy of tumor measurements: Tumor measurements used in ORR determinations can be imprecise.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 21:19

a Panel review of ORR for scancell ...

consists of two numbers

pass or fail

300 patients

x have ORR
y does not

the gold standard

i have no idea why Ruck feels something is missing ...

[thelogman] 13/11/2024 21:19

11 p and I will be interested in adding.

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 21:15

But happy to talk about needing to raise funds pre infection points without checking ;-)

[bermudashorts] 13/11/2024 21:12

loggie - good to see you back

chilltime - I'm fully aware of the basics thanks, just couldn't be bothered to go back and check whether they restated their intention to commence the phase 2/3 in 2025.

[gazza] 13/11/2024 21:11

"gazza unable to find a third number"There is no third number. You can use a data set of 11,12 or 13 and get a meaningful result. But I repeat you CANNOT get a meaningful SD with a data set of two, it is ridiculous. Try and get on a GCSE statistics course to give you a start.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 21:05

gazza unable to find a third number changes the subject .... but we can remind him later

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 21:03

so you need a Xmas share price ... prediction Log .. without that you cannot enter the advent cal and get a choc reward

Bermuda is on a diet

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 21:01

They are also in multiple discussions re SC134 which I suspect could attract a decent up front judging by the comments and clear interest in it.

That may well be substantial.

SCLC is not well served with poor outcomes.

Examples have been posted of big up fronts for pre clinical $200m and more, I'm not suggesting it will be that, but it could easily be 10's of millions or more.


On a quick interim financing perhaps for a phase 1, then upcoming milestones and up fronts could cover that, we'll see in December.

If some are already NDA's in they may well be seeing live data, given the 2025 phase 2/3 forecast surely they are in the data room.

[gazza] 13/11/2024 21:01

"Exactly that Bermuda. I can guarantee on excellent news the market won't fully appreciate it immediately anyway so actually it probably makes sense leaving some on the sidelines ready to pounce if needed."Spot on. It usually takes 3-4 working days for news to filter through and people to react. If there is an initial spike, there will be a pull back.

[thelogman] 13/11/2024 21:00

Bunnies 10 pound in Tesco for 18 deck,better value than scarcely shares.
Leeds for promotion . Anyone holding here for years without trading you need to see a theropist. Absolutely awful showing and getting diluted to tuck with ever increasing wage bill 40 pence will be good never mind 8 pound.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 20:56

well scancell had two numbers ...... 11 and 13

seems a lots of interest generated by two numbers

you keep telling us you cannot predict on two numbers

yet every trial operates the same way

to get PFS requires two numbers those that progress v those that dont ... which is generated at a "time"

OS requires two numbers those that survive v those that don't

i have no idea where the third number that you are missing comes from Ruckrover

perhaps you can explain ?

[chilltime] 13/11/2024 20:55

Bermuda

A bit odd you asking questions on the basics

re your point

Scancell now need to ensure they stick to their own revised timescales for release of trial results so they are not forced to raise funds ahead of potential inflection points and more importantly so they can move as quickly as possible into the phase 2/3. I can't remember whether they said at the AGM that they were still hoping to commence that trial in 2025


The CFO aid it in April and it's repeated in the annual report, they also said it at the AGM.

They will review the Scib1 (Q4) and Iscib+ (H1) then make a decision.

Quote

"Following the data we will progress to a late stage registrational study in 2025 and evaluate partnering, out licensing or further financing options"

In the Q and A the point of when does talks with partners start. Lindy said it already has, they are waiting for the data.


I haven't got a problem with it slipping if it's about negotiating the right value for a deal.

The way I see it, judging by comments, Lindy would prefer partnering or whatever gets Scancell the cash to move forward with others in the stable, but only if it makes sense on shareholder value.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 20:52

and of course will miss any uplift generated by the MABs

[gazza] 13/11/2024 20:51

"just type in two numbers"Oh dear, we've been through all this but apparently you fail to understand you CANNOT get a meaningful SD from just TWO numbers. It's worse than flawed it's completely ridiculous. If it gives you comfort in you world of fantasy fine but DON'T say "I have the algorithm" because you absolutely don't.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 20:50

Nigel u have not understood what Bermuda posted

"I'm waiting for funding and iSCIB1 results"

basically all the results ....

as you will not know the funding level required without Modi1

[nigelpm] 13/11/2024 20:46

Exactly that Bermuda. I can guarantee on excellent news the market won't fully appreciate it immediately anyway so actually it probably makes sense leaving some on the sidelines ready to pounce if needed.

[inanaco] 13/11/2024 20:45

Leeds United

3rd in Championship

Scancell back on his radar

I take it football going well ... and your Betfred is in credit

[ivyspivey] 13/11/2024 20:43

Good to see you back Loggie

[ivyspivey] 13/11/2024 20:43

I can only conclude that it is one of the 2 options I opined.
How can you read his own trial results as they are not fully published.He will have a very good idea of what is working or not and you are not interested as I said I find tgat surprising.
Must admit I learned a lot last night and happy to say I feel vindicated in my thoughts here so am very happy with his responses which clarified a lot for me.