Scancell Share Discussion Threads

[ivyspivey] 16/11/2024 11:16

SCLP is an interesting share but there are others imo..
.
Disagree about CTs comments about phase 3

[chilltime] 16/11/2024 11:13

On another point Inan


AIM is being trounced and has been for some time, so you have to be very careful what you commit to as it can evaporate in a flash.

Hence the big change here for me, although painful in dilution and shares in issue, was Redmile and Vulpes. But without them Scancell would likely be nowhere near further forward and probably less than a penny per share heading for the bin.

It would have been a hell of shame based on the potential of the platforms.

Redmile and Vulpes made the bet on the back of intense DD, they saw the potential that others had not even considered looking at. I checked what Professor James said and what Vulpes said (video now blocked).

Professor James at the time had a 100% record for them picking the right places to invest in the sector. Prof James spent 6 months or more reviewing small bio shares, about 20 of them and told Vulpes that Scancell data was compelling standing well above others, the obvious choice.

Other potential future major investors won't know of that early DD, but they will love seeing major companies heavily invested which will give them confidence to join.


Other hype shares are virtually 90% plus retail pump owned with leading pump chiefs on social media, that scenario is a nightmare, highly unattractive, and typically eventually it ends in decimation.

Here it's just a few enthusiastic posters with no appetite to try to create a retail army surge, via social media platforms, that brings chaos.

Best let the science and news be the driver of intense interest, that's where Scancell are great, frustrating to retail, applauded by funds, they say little, it has kept the chaos at bay.

Shortly Scancell are going to shout, hence my 45p rather high short term target, coin flip on when the shouting starts, which could be next week on, I have no idea, but Scib1 data is due.

A SC134 big deal will catch the market stone cold, timing unknown.

There are at least two new funds invested from the last raise, neither of which is typical AIM, one I had to track who was the parent owner as I'd never heard of it which was very interesting. About 15 mill between them but they are major.

If the retail army pump crew spotted such things in their shares they would be posting it everywhere and causing fomo buying.

That has not been done here, just references to keeping an eye on things that some may not be able to see.

EG one poster mentioned part of the supply is/was an estate. That was the likely largest private shareholder by some way. I know from my own looking around that the poster is correct. They also sold in another large holding they own, much larger in value than their Scancell holding. Both offloads were pre budget, post labour elected.


Anyway the point is yes I get it, I think it's a great low risk, big reward investment and some are keeping track of what they can.

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 11:11

just read this ... Telegraph and it really does apply to me ...

There are advantages to going it alone. If you go a different way to your peers and your way reaps rewards, you are the innovator, the entrepreneur, the leader who could best predict the future and knew how to make the best of it.

But if your chosen path doesn’t lead to prosperity – indeed, if it’s a road to nowhere – it’s far trickier to have ventured out alone. When things go wrong, there is no one to hide behind, no safety in numbers.



I was alone "all in" others that followed to scared of voicing an opinion ...

but that is there problem

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 10:59

all roads lead you back to Scancell .... don't you find that interesting ? Ivy

what makes this share .... so interesting ?

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 10:58

Ivy many a time you have concentrated on telling us about the virtues of the wider Market ie diversification rather than concentration

yet here we are ..

[ivyspivey] 16/11/2024 10:44

Morning
CT agree that Nana should only concentrate on SCLP
Mind you when he wrote this I thought he was
this is when "going all in " is stupid and dangerous,

Only joking.HAGW

[chilltime] 16/11/2024 10:43

None, I don't see the point, I just focus on this, the risk reward is very attractive

I understand you on the no risk point, which I think you mean, which others may not.

I take your no risk, as you are in low, even with failures Scancell is four separate business it's not reliant on a one hit wonder doom or glory. So the risk to your initial investment at this time is very low based on your current entry point.

I also don't get the view of what if phase 3 fails, my view is so what?, by that time the share price would be much higher than now with that running, and other multiple catalysts. That becomes a problem for people buying high much later in the day.

EG some say waiting for Iscib data before buying more, well that would be likely after 3 to 4 Glymab payment deal events, SC134 and has signposted as a potential major del by Scancell, plus a risk of missing out on major deals on Scib and so on.

So before Iscib data the share price could be multiples of now.

I just try to keep an eye on things, hence I listen to all interviews to understand the strategy and likely timelines.

On the phase 2/3 run themselves or a partner the comments have been the same all year and in the AGM.

Wait post Iscib data, and consider their options, if a deal is good enough they will take it, if not they will consider raising the funds, various means to progress it themselves. They point to Glymab and other deals as cash runway extensions in the meantime. Partners are already in talks re Sub waiting the data so it's not a cold calling game post data.

Just like the anon Glymab exclusivity advanced actions are in play, the deal is done, all agreed, Yes, triggers it and the up front plus future payments, no, ends it.

They have repeatedly said what is best value for Scancell and shareholders will be the plan, rushing a Phase 2/3 raise before they have listened to all offers is a stupid idea and highly unlikely.

Lindy would like a deal but not a cheap deal, one where the partner takes it forward then they can put up front cash into moving the pipeline forward.

It's all stated and repeatedly stated over the last year or so, there has been no change on that front.

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 10:34

now the good news about Labour

the one area they will never let collapse ... is the NHS

its the only area they have that they can market themselves on to the electorate as reasonably proficient

problem is ... its all the policy around that which will screw that up

Woke Diversity etc etc

i could not believe it but before the Aorta scan the woman asked

are you British and can I ask you that ? so that we can include that in the data set

OMG

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 10:25

if you look back in your history chill you where multi-share posting ...

from before this date approx 2022

just read it ......... you ignored all the science stuff !!!

and look how you have changed Now you now are telling others how to Post who have been at it for 12 years on the subject of Scancell and who are far more experienced because we have history of other shares we have looked at from Biontech to Inovio
and we have watched immunotherapy develop you have not

business is never insular ... its affected by every facet of Gov from Red tape to taxation

it all matter to sensible investors

its all about the RISK profile







chilltime - 05 Oct 2022 - 17:13:55 - 424 of 14176 Scancell - Pot of Gold or POS? - SCLP
Thanks for starting this thread dude. I just couldn't be bothered to engage on the tripe next door.

Declaring an interest, ignoring all the complicated science stuff, this is what I liked re cancerous tumours, interesting stuff.

In short, the immune system doesn't recognise the cancerous cells treating them as friendly.

Like a Millwall supporter being found out, in the Chelsea crowd wearing a Chelsea shirt.
Scancell have found a way to wind up the cancer cells to the point where Chelsea score, the intruder sounds off, and whips off his top to reveal a Millwall top, the Chelsea boys (antibodies) do the rest.

Or in science terms the cancer cells become agitated, the immune system then recognises the cancer cells as the enemy and they move in for the kill.

In animal tests the tumours quickly started to shrink. In other typical drugs trials for various conditions results can take a long time to digest and interpret.

You can't really hide a shrinking tumour from a patient or doctors in the trials, and as it acts so swiftly, it will become apparent very quickly if it is working and long before it gets announced. Surely a patient and their immediate family would know how it's going.

If you have a drug that achieves that in trials, then as the broker says it's pretty damn huge dudes.

Fingers crossed for the shareholders, but more importantly for relevant cancer sufferers.

[chilltime] 16/11/2024 10:21

As you've probably guessed Inan I'm fully on board committed to Scancell.

As I've said before I'm intending to stay anticipating a take out at some point and as early as next year

This sector is unloved and unresearched by the masses. To me Scancell is within a bio sector that was also unloved and ignored for years (DNA vaccines and so on). Melanoma is seen as the graveyard for trials, hence then intense interest when they presented at Asco with stunning early efficacy.

Combination therapies are the new hot topic, and can retain revenue by those that employ it, by various means including acquisition.

Finger drumming for some time re Glymabs and now intense commercial interest, a chance all 5 are going to see deals this financial year.


The only AIM bio related shares seeing good activity this last few years are near 100% retail army driven, with prominent social media pumpers.

No such thing here which is perfect, it will come at some point, but on the back of real progress.

1p rises steady is good, but it won't last if big positive news drops in and the supply halted, which may be the case.

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 10:04

so a question for you Chill

what shares do u hold other than scancell ?

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 09:51

Chill .... its all relevant

every gear in a cog turns and connects ............ to generate the output

Your posts are welcome ... I keep trying to explain to you even the simplest of posts

like

which one has failed

SCIB1 or Keytruda ....

did NOT change the minds of people about RISK because they convince themselves its BioTech so it MUST be risky

you can post all you want about all the different aspects of Scancell explain Values .... probabilities etc etc

but it will have no effect

unless you can break through that Risk profile


This is why i spent so much effort with Bermuda

"have you changed course yet"

I ask Ivy ... Vindicated ? i know what he means his reason not to buy scancell

your posts read well but ... to much info ... less is more

ATB

[nigelpm] 16/11/2024 09:49

Where do you get 208m from and are you assuming that comes in as cash??

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 09:41

just a reminder of Value ....

our MCAP has now moved to £151m

not even equivalent to Genmab getting just 1 product from its licenced MAB approved which would be $208m plus Royalties

Trinity is still at 33p per share based on Old News

thank the Lord that we are Dollar Based with Global Markets in a share with "property relief" and patent Box corp tax

you may not see that as value ...But as a Business I have survived all the recessions and upheaval since 1981 I have seen it all before

but this time around its different ... debt to GDP and the tax take is so high its having a reversing effect you actually raise less

Scancell a safe haven ? I think so

while watching a "rabbit in headlights" named Racheal

[chilltime] 16/11/2024 09:41

Inan

Can we drop that, you hate labour and their plans as do many, they are in, c'est la vie and at some point they will be gone again, there is enough to talk about on Scancell in the next few weeks.

X is a good place to find plenty of support and comment on your fears.

I don't want to filter you as you do occasionally out in some good stuff but lately it's sometimes up to 20,30, 50 posts between you and others on absolute drivel.

ADVFN ,great add on they did, filtered posters don't appear at all, it's just a blank space, unless you notice the post number sequence has a gap you don't know filtered users have posted. Unless you note the warning at the bottom about filtered posts, 2 etc.

As an extra bonus I note, if you filtered a poster that has a thread that thread disappears too.... fabulous.

[chilltime] 16/11/2024 09:37

In terms of the issue with SCLC this is relevant

Approximately 70–80% of patients with SCLC have ES-SCLC at the initial diagnosis.

Basically that means the cancer has widely spread and thus becomes very difficult to treat, is aggressive, and rapidly fatal.

It's all about targets in cancer, in the case of SCLC it's fucosyl-GM1 (FucGM1)

from the Scancell paper

It is expressed in 75% to 90% of SCLC cases with little or no expression in normal tissues

targets within the target

with DMS79 showing the highest binding levels, followed by H740 and DMS153.

So in the paper DMS79 is the main target to focus on.

Keeping it simple

In pre clinical SC134 showed strong action against the tumours and improved overall survival to impressive levels.

They also established that when SC134 attacks the cancer cells increase PD1 but SC134 was still having significant impact on tumours

"SC134-TCB treatment induced a significant increase in PDL1-positive DMS79"

So they also added Atezolizumab brand name Tencentriq (Roche own it) which is an anti Pd1 the same sort of action as Scib combos, working together to reduce the tumour defences protecting T cells to intensify the attack

Improvements were apparent including overall survival.

So SCLC has been pretty much ignored cancer, probably because it's so aggressive and most are late stage diagnosed, treatment options are currently limited. But as you can see in the last few years it's has gained intense interest with little success but an energy to work to find effective therapies.

So that is why SC134 is seeing broad commercial interest and why Scancell were so excited about it from the start, and very excited now

So SCLC has been largely ignored but not anymore, the interest of the majors has just kicked off and up pops SC134 onto their radar.

The deal on that theoretically should be significant in terms of up front and milestones. The interest is there, plenty talking to Scancell on a deal for SC134 and a serious unmet need.

I'll look forward to that news, it should be stellar if they strike a deal. Taking a cheap deal on that would be barmy, run phase 1 and add zeros. It seems a really good deal is the likely outcome, in an oncology sector, where the big names are hunting for an answer.

[inanaco] 16/11/2024 09:18

seriously worth a read as its factual based

the numbers are staggering

with the economy already hitting the brick wall .... and the tax rises are not here yet,

this is when "going all in " is stupid and dangerous,

and you are in effect "locked in"

you have shut down fossil without the guarantee of supply

sometimes you have to speak out ! otherwise your Kids will never have what we have enjoyed coupled with an autocratic government .... whats next

oh ....

Britain’s immigration surge ‘bigger than all other rich nations’
More than 700,000 ‘permanent migrants’ moved to the UK last year, OECD says

[chilltime] 16/11/2024 08:28

SC134

I've been reading up on it as it seems there is a huge amount of industry interest in it.

Why?

From the web on the recent history, you see that it's forgotten cancer in terms of trying to find a good treatment. It's highly aggressive and most patients are diagnosed last stage with little hope.

So SC134 were is showing good potency (more on that shortly) hence it is attracting such attention.

A significant sea change occurred in 2018 with the approval of nivolumab followed by pembrolizumab and atezolizumab in 2019, durvalumab in 2020, accelerated approval for lurbinectedin in 2020 and trilaciclib in 2021 for myelosuppression. In 2021, the US indications for nivolumab and pembrolizumab were withdrawn. Suddenly, a tumor type, whose name was virtually synonymous with stalled progress and movement, and which was much less well studied and funded than its more prevalent cousin, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), finds itself in the eye of the storm, that is, at the epicenter of an intense flurry and ferment of activity, not all of it positive. This review surveys approved drugs and select up-and-coming ones in development for extensive stage SCLC.

For 40 years SCLC was consigned to isolated backwater status, underfunded, and understudied due to its recalcitrant aggressiveness and stigmatized as a disease of smokers, only to re-emerge with the landmark approval of nivolumab in 2018, which ushered in a new era of immunotherapy and all at once lifted the curse and the taboo that had attached themselves to SCLC.

[marcusl2] 16/11/2024 08:16

Phil carries a lot of Kudos.

Dr. L’Huillier holds a PhD in molecular and cellular biology he was Head of the European Innovation Hub & Business Development for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at global pharmaceutical company Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD).

As part of his role, Phil was responsible for the identification and evaluation of BD opportunities across multiple indications, including oncology.

Merck (known as MSD outside the U.S.)




Merck will pay $588 million upfront, $3 billion.

[marcusl2] 15/11/2024 21:29

CW

(EMA) has recommended approval of Opdivo ® (nivolumab) plus Yervoy ® (ipilimumab) for the first-line treatment of adult patients with microsatellite instability–high (MSI-H) or mismatch repair deficient (dMMR) unresectable or metastatic colorectal cancer


Modi-2 Colorectal

[chilltime] 15/11/2024 18:55

Scib1 dates recap

April news 24 recruited.

24th July 32 recruited.

24th Sept 36 recruited

Scancell comment 24th Sept after a query on the 36 (did it include the Keytruda cohort) the 36 are all the BMS combo.

""To make sure have hit target we will recruit the 43 as we have to wait 12 weeks for first scan and 19 for confirmation and a group of patients have been recently recruited.""

So in Q4 terms capability to hit 27 ORR.

24 patients past week 25 scan (3rd scan)

The next 8 at least past week 12, many will be past week 19 it could all depending on when the last was recruited pre 24th July news (week 17 from that date next week).


The next 4 were done by 24th Sept. To go back 19 weeks (confirmation scan from year end) those 4 would have needed to start mid August with a scan Christmas week. But then it takes about two weeks to get data, meaning start of August for the 4, but Scancell say quite a few recruited recently, 24th Sept comment.

27/31 87%
27/32 84%
27/33 82%
27/34 79%

If they are waiting for the week 19 confirmation scan then none of the extra 4 beyond 32 are likely to feature.

In the initial data new they said 9 from 11 subject to week 19 confirmation scan.

To state Q4 likely data would mean expecting 27 hit. So based the numbers given if comes this month it must be very good, in the 80's.

So logically if they are reporting soon it's in the mids 80's ORR or better.

Based on the numbers they have given recruited, and scan timelines.

[chillpill] 15/11/2024 18:47

What is good to see is the price going up on relatively low volume last few days. The average daily volume for the shares is 1.3m.

It looks like the pre-budget tax selling has now stopped since people now have another 16 months to sort out their affairs which was far better than some feared.

[miavoce] 15/11/2024 16:48

Thanks CountBruga

[nigelpm] 15/11/2024 16:08

I'd forgotten CEO was in on Monday - highly likely an RNS and leak.

[chilltime] 15/11/2024 15:58

Nigel

This is the way see it the scib1 data.

July 24th they said 32 patients.

AGM 25th Oct 13 weeks since 32 mentioned.

So if they had one or two first scans pending patients from just before 24th then they were unlikely to have the data.

But enough data to day results expected Q4 which likely means they have hit 25/26, just waiting on one or two to drop in to trigger news.

This week 17 weeks have passed so a fair chance of news.