Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[family values] 25/5/2017 09:17

Cost and value, very different

Still , within a few short months we will know the answer.

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/5/2017 09:10

So the dataset alone is worth in excess of 10x todays share price of 41.5p.

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/5/2017 07:12

24 May 2017Results to 31 Dec 2017http://www.investegate.co.uk/savannah-petroleum--savp-/rns/full-year-results/201705240700100347GShare CapitalAt 31 December 2016...274,621,447 shares in issue.

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/5/2017 07:08

At todays (25.05.17) exchange rate, $1.5b = £1.15b.There are currently 274,621,447 shares in issue.This equates to £4.19/share.

[lithological heterogeneities] 25/5/2017 06:52

Family ValuesSAVP - Annual Report25 May 2015http://www.savannah-petroleum.com/downloads/reports/Savannah_Annual_Report_2015.pdfPage 4"We have an extensive and highly valuable technical dataset, which would likely cost in excess of excess of US$1.5bn to recreate today"

[divmad] 25/5/2017 06:43

Astonishing intra day reversal yesterday.

[family values] 24/5/2017 23:44

Diversification 1.5 billion $ of data, any chance you could explain?

[westmoreland lad] 24/5/2017 22:05

Thanks Diversification. Good post.

Expecting a few well respected o + g posters off ADVFN arriving here soon.

imo, the time is now - get in c 41 / 42p sit back and relax + hope POO behaves.

[diversification] 24/5/2017 21:50

My take on the RNS, whilst it didn't contain a lot of new information (due on the 7th), gave us an insight into progress to date:

RNS comments --

My comments ++

-- An additional export route for Agadem crude to the Kaduna refinery in northern Nigeria is being advanced;

++ As also picked up on by Malcy, this news could drop into the share price at any time thereby increasing the net asset value of any discovery by $1.4 a barrel at $60 crude. A material increase to the share price whenever this news comes to fruition.

-- "We believe the business is now well positioned to deliver a material step change in value for our stakeholders, and look forward to providing a significant update on our drilling plans and forward strategy at our upcoming Capital Markets Event in London on 7 June 2017."

-- An initial three well campaign (with up to six individual options which can be exercised in the event of success).

++ The obvious is the drilling plans, 3D, drill location and prospective resource per well, perhaps another increase in leads and therefore risked resource base.

++ The forward strategy is where we can get speculative and given AK previous roles he will realise this. Without saying as much with the short to medium term focused on Niger as stated in this update, this must only leave a potential farm in. AK has stated that he and the board expects this to be a drilling campaign and as such it is reasonable to expect more than 3 wells. 6 additional wells if we find oil but how will these be funded if we don't have a JV partner with deep pockets!!! Value accretive means minimising shareholder dilution through equity finance in my book.

-- The use of proceeds of the financing was to fund our first 3D seismic survey and our initial drilling campaign. ($40m fund raise)

-- The data acquired is of excellent quality, and although our interpretation of the results is ongoing, initial indications are highly positive. (R3 EAST)

++ To understand the scale of this acreage the completed 3D only covers a portion of R3. The scale of this acreage is massive.

-- Savannah's review of its acreage has shown that significant play potential exists in this formation, and that this usually sits directly above Eocene leads and therefore offers attractive "stacked" targets to evaluate exploration prospectivity across multiple horizons.

++ I would of thought the upcoming targets must be stacked and therefore drastically increased our chances of success. The board keeps making reference to the 'sweet spot' and the 'repeatable' success that must be transferable from CNPC's assets.

-- We are also in discussions with our partners in relation to the pursuit of other potential opportunities in Nigeria, and look forward to providing further updates on this over the course of 2017.

++ Again bonus news which will drive volume and therefore share price, this could be a hidden gem as pointed out by ZENGAS.

-- Over the course of the year, exploration and evaluation assets grew from US$81m at year end 2015 to US$97m at year end 2016.

++ This puts into perspective the current 'back costs' associated with our asset, not including the estimated $1.5 billion of data we inherited. Another reason why a JV partner has to pay for a higher than normal chance of success.

[diversification] 24/5/2017 19:21

Yes 100%, In the event of a JV, that will only be completed on a value accretive basis ($250m for 50%) discussed. Lse board very informative to catch up with what you have missed.

[talkman2] 24/5/2017 18:57

Can someone please tell me what percentages Savannah has if their licenses ? Is it 100% ?

[diversification] 24/5/2017 16:35

Not on volume of just over 750k, not a lot of new news to feed on. It's all about the 7th June, expecting more volume from the 5th in anticipation. When you state SIGNIFICANT, it's like dissecting the FED statements!!

Happy with a slow consolidation or move higher prior to this date

[cloudburst] 24/5/2017 16:27

Very disappointed at today's share price performance.
There must be a seller offloading shares.

[ngms27] 24/5/2017 13:36

One way or another this is going to be exciting over the long hot summer. Perhaps a great trading opportunity like AEX was?

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/5/2017 13:09

i was expecting around 50p-60p during drilling so pleased with that....then add in a potential farm-in of up to $250 before drilling and there is no reason we couldnt be higher than that soon.

[family values] 24/5/2017 13:05

The bid price was always without a premium. The maximum online sell volume was also poor, so suggests that MMs weren't under any pressure.
Just sit tight until the capital markets day

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/5/2017 13:04

SAVP on audioboom today:



says SAVP is in an uptrend and if it closes above 42.50p resistance next targets are 49.55p and 59.60p.

[x54v] 24/5/2017 13:04

Reckon there's been a seller in the background for the past few days.

The price doesn't seem to make much headway with buying and falls back on only a little selling.

If the seller would clear then price would likely move up much more quickly and consistently.

[lithological heterogeneities] 24/5/2017 12:51

well that spike didnt last long.makes no sense with a "significant update" on 07 June.

[buffythebuffoon] 24/5/2017 11:31

I'd imagine you have arterial stents cloudburst.

You sound a bit stressed by the way....

Buffy

[cloudburst] 24/5/2017 10:30

Hard to argue against you ngms27.
I only see one actual sell of 14k, but the buy volume isn't even 100k in value.
Chicken feed given our mcap.

We need a few heavy hitters onboard.

Still, this baby steps share action takes a lot less of a toll on my heart stents.

[ngms27] 24/5/2017 10:26

I think this is high enough as does Mr Market until the drillbit at least starts to turn, they get a good farmout or they strike oil.

[cloudburst] 24/5/2017 10:23

P1ss poor volume.

Steady trickle of buys

I believe we should see 45p today, but the market is stuck in treacle.