Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[dorset64] 08/5/2017 10:35

All nicely coming together.

[thomasthetank1] 08/5/2017 09:16

Mirabaud

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP LN) has confirmed the formal signature of its drilling contract with Great Wall Drilling, the Chinese services company, following the letter of award announced in March. As previously outlined, the contract includes 3 firm wells plus 6 options with drilling anticipated to start by the end of Q2. Following completion of its recent 3D seismic survey over the R3 area, the company should be in a position to confirm well locations at its upcoming Capital Markets Day on 7 June. The company has already stated that it plans to focus the initial three well campaign on the R3 block which contains similar low risk fault block structures to those drilled by CNPC in adjacent acreage (with a success rate of >75%). On a separate note, we would also add that a 5.3m block trade was executed on Friday clearing a line of SAVP stock at 38p which should open the door to another leg up in the share price as drilling draws nearer.

RBC International

Savannah Petroleum (SAVP.L): Takes Another Step Closer to Drilling

Savannah today announced the signing of a formal rig contract with Great Wall Drilling Company Niger for Rig GWDC 215. As announced previously, the contract provides for a programme of three firm wells and includes options for a further six wells. Attention is focused on Block R3 area and we expect management to provide further details on its drilling plans and forward strategy at its 7th June Capital Markets Event in London.

[bushman1] 05/5/2017 21:11

Does anyone here know whether the 5,300,000 trade was a BUY or a SELL ?

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/4/2017 17:34

The co seems a bit off the radar, although did send out the reminder call yesterday

[zengas] 25/4/2017 17:27

Kerogen Capital ($2b fund) invested $100m in a private oil company in Jan 2017.
It put $63m in initially to Hurricane Energy last year.
It put $125m into New Age Africa in 2012 and then EIG Global Energy partners with the Africa Finance Corp put up a further $425m drawdown facility last July (New Age were rumoured to be the RTO suitor).

There's numerous big equity funds that could just as easily be a partner and given the company management and their links to finance, it's always a possibility.

They had no problem raising $40m at 38p when the share price was 23p and then arranging a further $12m revolving loan facility (undrawn) 3 months ago.

There appears slightly to me to be a sticking point around 39p this past 2 months so i'm wondering could there be a willing equity partner who puts up the cash in tranches while the company kept 100% of the licences (ie and thus the current price held in this range). I think the announced capital markets day will enlighten us in the next few weeks. Bound to be attractive to a private equity fund when anyone looks at the ongoing success of the Chinese and you have that very significant blue chip investor base.

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/4/2017 17:18

ZEN - Trucking crude to Nigeria doesn't get me excited, for obvious reasons. Still, they need to find some oil first... Looks a great postcode on the geology ftont, not so great on the getting oil to market front. As you say, hopefully getting oil to market will be somebody else's problem!

[trulyscrumptious] 25/4/2017 17:07

How are you so certain buffy?

[zengas] 25/4/2017 16:58

GG - The Chinese were selling 20k bopd pre facilities pipeline.
Savp were to be a partner in the infrastructure agreement through a separate vehicle. It was reported that the Niger government did not want the Chinese to have a total monopoly in the country and on the oil infrastructure. 5-6 years is nothing in a development game.

Out of interest the Cove Energy discoveries that were bought up in 2012 were about 9 years away from significant development. Savp will be able to truck as an early stage producer if they make a find, but personally I hope they sell out on the back of significant reserves to a major energy hungry player such as the Indians or someone else that has been looking for a stake - or perhaps to who they ever get as a partner ?.

Would be surprised if some of the big private equity oil funds would not be interested in partnering/financing - Vitol etc given the hefty blue chip investors.

[thegreatgeraldo] 25/4/2017 16:29

Just one nagging doubt.... with all the oil the Chinese have found, they don't seem to be making much progress in getting it to market.....

[dorset64] 25/4/2017 14:55

Nice one buffy, be interesting to know who it is.

[buffythebuffoon] 25/4/2017 14:34

Not happening Dorset64.

AK has the partner identified.

The i's are being dotted and the t's crossed.

Buffy

[dorset64] 25/4/2017 14:07

Would CNPC not be the perfect partner given their experience of currently operating within the local area and the fact that they are already fully mobalised within it & the government, which is most important part of any new partner coming on board.

[wardrv] 25/4/2017 11:31

Recent CNPC discoveries must give SAVP a stronger hand in finding and negotiating with a potential partner, presumably that is why the company have made recent reference to partner introduction. The future looks bright even without a partner but $200 million coming along will have an interesting effect on the share price for sure.

[zengas] 25/4/2017 10:14

In the 1st half of 2016, the SAVP presentation was quoting that the Chinese had already booked 975 mmbls of P2 and analysts who covered it said there was no sign of the discoveries abating.

Now with Mirabaud saying the Chinese have made 5 major discoveries in H2 of last year of 200 mmbls recoverable in close proximity to R3, that would bring them up to just shy of 1.2 billion bls P2.

[x54v] 25/4/2017 09:32

Sounds good.

"With Savannah benefiting from a quality institutional register, we expect it to be one of the stronger performers over the short term."

[paleje] 25/4/2017 09:02

Capital Markets Day to look forward to then.

[thomasthetank1] 25/4/2017 08:57

Morning all, thought you might like to see the below from Mirabaud.

Local press in Niger has reported that Savannah Petroleum’s (SAVP LN) neighbour in the Agadem basin, CNPC, made five major discoveries during H2 last year, in doing so proving some 200 mmbbls of recoverable reserves. Significantly, from Savannah’s perspective, the discoveries were in the southern part of the Agadem block, implying close proximity to Savannah’s R3 licence on which it is gearing up to drill. The article follows that CNPC is planning to commence trucked exports to the Kaduna refinery in Northern Nigeria, with an initial 5,000 bopd rising in due course to 10,000 bopd. This is significant in that it would mark the country’s first exports, and it is in line with Savannah’s most recent plans, initially published during last years’ capital markets day. Consistent with its medium term strategy, talks between Niger and Nigeria are also maturing with regards to a pipeline connecting the two countries, which from an economic perspective would be Savannah’s preferred route (as opposed to the Chad-Cameroon, or a route via Benin). The article (in French) can be accessed here: hxxp://www.tamtaminfo.com/perspectives-heureuses-pour-lor-noir-nigerien/.

To recap, Savannah is planning a minimum 3 well campaign (with up to six optional well slots), with the first well due to spud ahead of mid-year. Prospects are due to be high graded in the coming weeks (and will likely be unveiled during the June 7th capital markets day), but, substantiated by the press report, we would expect prospect sizes in the order of 25-50 mmbbls. With barrels worth some US$4.6/bbl (unrisked) on our numbers, a strike could be transformational for the company. Encouragingly, there seems no slowing in CNPC’s hit rate, which was in excess of 75% at Savannah’s last audit, and with Savannah utilising a rig last used by CNPC (indeed, it is probable that the rig and its crew made at least some of the discoveries referenced in the press report) we are very confident going into the campaign. AIM stocks of late have been rewarded going into funded drilling campaigns with strong performance ahead of spudding, often fuelled by retail interest. With Savannah benefiting from a quality institutional register, we expect it to be one of the stronger performers over the short term.

[paleje] 25/4/2017 08:21

Malcys blog this morning:-

Savannah Petroleum
I have picked up on a very interesting article in the Niger press which is extremely exciting for the country and in our case Savannah Petroleum. Talking about the five major discoveries, and ‘smaller ones of the order of 200m barrels’ in the second half of 2016 in the southern part of the Agadem block, the article suggests that CNPC will intensify their drilling.

The good news doesn’t end there, talk of fast track exports of oil to the Kaduna refinery growing from a starting 5/-b/d to 10/- b/d, ‘gradually’ by truck means that prospects are bright. In addition the Niger Oil Minister has spent time in Nigeria recently holding talks with his counterpart also discussing a new pipeline between the two countries. For Savannah, the pipeline options are either via Chad-Cameroon or to Kaduna in Nigeria and news that both of these routes are becoming more of a reality is extremely good news.

News from Savannah is coming thick and fast, a rig has been selected and work on the camp has begun, yesterday we heard that there will soon be a Capital Markets Day and a call for retail investors, as the article concludes ‘a succession of good news’ is due from Niger, as SAVP prepares to spin the drill bit at Agadem, exciting times indeed.

[trulyscrumptious] 25/4/2017 08:20

From Malcy, things seem to be starting.

Savannah Petroleum
I have picked up on a very interesting article in the Niger press which is extremely exciting for the country and in our case Savannah Petroleum. Talking about the five major discoveries, and ‘smaller ones of the order of 200m barrels’ in the second half of 2016 in the southern part of the Agadem block, the article suggests that CNPC will intensify their drilling.
The good news doesn’t end there, talk of fast track exports of oil to the Kaduna refinery growing from a starting 5/-b/d to 10/- b/d, ‘graduallyR17; by truck means that prospects are bright. In addition the Niger Oil Minister has spent time in Nigeria recently holding talks with his counterpart also discussing a new pipeline between the two countries. For Savannah, the pipeline options are either via Chad-Cameroon or to Kaduna in Nigeria and news that both of these routes are becoming more of a reality is extremely good news.
News from Savannah is coming thick and fast, a rig has been selected and work on the camp has begun, yesterday we heard that there will soon be a Capital Markets Day and a call for retail investors, as the article concludes ‘a succession of good news’ is due from Niger, as SAVP prepares to spin the drill bit at Agadem, exciting times indeed..

[wardrv] 21/4/2017 07:22

The LSE thread has some comments from the investor presentation.

[bushman1] 20/4/2017 15:57

Could anyone from this board attending the Pro Active presentation please post a bullet point update tonight ? Very many thanks.

[family values] 19/4/2017 10:17

Anyone understand what is going on with these large trades?

Appear in realtime as sells, yet smaller buys of just 25k are delayed?

Is it just the musings of the AIM gods whilst us mortals look on?

[letmepass] 19/4/2017 08:42

Can buy.. Change your broker