Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[zengas] 23/3/2017 10:07

Divmad

The m/caps are where they are because what they have are total opposites. They both offer various levels of upside if successful and of course different levels of ceiling constraint on their ultimate valuations relative to their assets. I hold both.

AAOG has oil/gas found in multiple zones in the Tilapia field with reservoirs that have been significant producers. It's their only asset and their licence area is the actual 50km2 field. It's next to billion boe discoveries but their net potential if all reservoirs are further proved up is estimated at 11.5 mmbo mid case (to 31.4 mmbo high case for the oil) and a further potential of 19.6 - 49.5 mmboe gas in the mid to high case i beleive. That doesn't include 3 existing shallower point indienne reservoirs. It's working on the basis of being a significant producer within a matter of months on its existing infrastructure. If fully successful it should be multiples of it's current value. The directors have no desire they say to seek other assets so the one field it is.

Savps net licence area is 13,655 km2 and over 100 drilling targets and is 80 times AAOGs mid case oil potential (even after a 50% farmout if it happens) and also within 10km of significant CNPC discoveries amounting to over 975 mmbo P2 as of mid last year with a low risk and high chance for success. MOUs in helping Nigerians and potential for further transactions on that side of the border. In addition any farm-in to Savps licence could be worth more than their m/cap.

[divmad] 22/3/2017 19:41

Zengas, how do you assess the relative upside/downside on SAVP with AAOG, which I know you also like for its oil prospectivity, but which is 1/5th the MC?

[dorset64] 22/3/2017 17:31

Westie, you should add ARS to that list if you have a couple of spare £'s. DYOR but I am very happy holding them & SAVP amongst a few others at the mo.

[westmoreland lad] 22/3/2017 17:13

Yes, as ever Dorset. Thanks Zengas.

Exciting few months ahead guys -- SAVp / PVR / 88E drills all turning at the same time.

Thinking of buying a new prayer mat ! :-)

[dorset64] 22/3/2017 16:18

As ever Zengas, in-depth & quality research. Thanks.

[zengas] 22/3/2017 10:08

My thoughts on the drill programme -

The rig is booked for 3 then 6 optional wells.
No farm-in partner imo is going to get into this kind of opportunity cheaply and should if it happens in effect see the company funded for a considerable first phase drill programme.

The stacked eocene target wells are 25 days average and around $4.25m.
On the way to the eocene they will pass through the shallower stacked upper Sokor targets.
The deeper targets are the Yogou.

On R1 the Damissa prospect has proven oil "accumulations" within 10km and is also in the main kitchen fairway as the others.
On the R3 Bushiya prospect with 5 interval targets and a 6th as a lead, this prospect is within 10km of proven oil accumulations.
Again on R3 - the Kunama prospect with multple stacked targets in 3 geological zones, it's situated within 14 km of proven oil accumulations.

When you look at the mapped chinese discoveries you can see the similar and even greater distances between multiple prospect discoveries.

The flow rates from the eocene have ranged 1000-3000 bopd and are estimated to lie at 1200m - 1800m depth (having stacked reservoir targets within - ie more than 1 eocene target).

That leaves the upper Sokor targets at a shallower depth - so if it takes 25 days average to drill the eocene - they would be passing through the shallower upper sokor much sooner - maybe less than 3 weeks from spud ?.

Below the eocene lies the Yogou formation where discoveries were made by the chinese at 2500 - 3000m with similar bopd flow rates to the eocene.

If the eocene is an average 25 day drill at $4.25m cost - then with the deeper yogou, the cost may be around $8m/well in total ? I feel that the 9 well total option could form part of a phase 1 farm in and why Savp have reserved that drill option with Great Wall.

With the short drill times, multiple targets per well and extreme close proximity to proven discoveries of 975mmbls P2, There is 2.2 billion bls risked recoverable over multiple interval targets and low drilling costs. It does not get much better than this imo and for any partner to commit a minimum $50m to a drill ready, seismic backed opportunity, early 2 year production, knows it is not a one shot wonder for that money and that is why there has been consistent mention of farm-ins for up to $250m which is reasonable considering all the factors above so i would think reasonable over 3 phases dependent on the success of phase 1 - all imo). No wonder it has such a strong blue chip investor base.

As for the route to market - there are 2 options and one is the trucking option that could go to Kaduna. Whatever option, production is being envisaged within 2 years of discovery so not right away. Saying that, i'm not here for production - purely reserves growth and a likely sell on/takeover to a major player (Majors across the border in Chad and CNPC already here with a $5b investment committment as are Sonatrach).

[dorset64] 22/3/2017 09:36

Another nice start to the day, and thanks for that link thomas.

[thomasthetank1] 21/3/2017 13:54

Hi guys,

Thought you might like to see Andrew Knott's (CEO) interview on TipTV with Malcy this morning.

hxxps://goo.gl/NfIyDK

[thomasthetank1] 20/3/2017 13:00

Hi guys,

Thought the below link to an interview with Malcolm Graham-Wood, which highlights the exciting period the Company is entering into, might be of interest. His comments on SAVP start at 24:30.

hxxps://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/blogs/738-the-peoples-operator-tpop-malcy-on-sdx-savp-igas-connor-campbell-on-fevr-kg/

[mdumont] 20/3/2017 13:00

https://audioboom.com/posts/5726600-738-the-people-s-operator-tpop-malcy-on-sdx-savp-igas-connor-campbell-on-fevr-kgfSAVP starts at 24:25GLA

[mdumont] 20/3/2017 12:34

Good exchange of ideas over on LSE

[ch1rp] 20/3/2017 11:43

Steady building of momentum!

[buffythebuffoon] 17/3/2017 17:12

Yes, Justin Waite talks so much, you wonder if he really listens

The start of the three well campaign will be in the first half, not the three wells.

Buffy

[mdumont] 17/3/2017 14:30

I could ramp it if you like, but you know what, it doesn't need it.Seismic results at the end of the month.Corporate/strategic news before the 1st drill according to AK.1st drill in H1.Bring it on.GLA

[bandflex] 17/3/2017 14:10

No ramping, no deramping, I always take that as a good sign when a share's moving up.

[dorset64] 17/3/2017 13:47

looks like peeps are starting to take an interest now, but still a pretty much un-noticed share on ADVFN BB's which is good.

[ch1rp] 17/3/2017 12:21

Upwards and onwards!

[ch1rp] 16/3/2017 15:54

Why not have a listen for yourself? All sounds very good!https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/blogs/735-ascent-resources-ast-savannah-petroleum-savp-plus-chris-bailey-alan-green/

[mdumont] 16/3/2017 14:56

That's not the case here. Fully funded for the drilling campaign due to start in H1.

[bandflex] 16/3/2017 13:50

I think the problem with Vox podcasts is that most people are beginning to realise that they occur right before or right after a big issue of shares, otherwise what's the point of them.

[bandflex] 16/3/2017 13:49

I think the problem with Vox podcasts is that most people are beginning to realise that they occur right before or right after a big issue of shares, otherwise what's the point of them.

[mdumont] 16/3/2017 12:51

Today 12:47Good podcast. I like the two references to strategic announcement prior to drilling which he couldn't talk about today. Then he said there would be corporate news soon in the future at the end of the podcast. Could this be the joint venture, possibly with the Chinese. They are using the Chinese drill company and the Chinese seismic data company, so is it all about the Chinese connection?

[flagon] 16/3/2017 12:31

From Malcy this morning -

Savannah announced that it had signed up for a rig to drill three wells in Niger with an option for another six, the market has been waiting for this for some time and likes to see delivery of promises. The shares moved up to the top of what has been a very narrow trading range but I would expect more as things start to happen here. With a potential couple of vacancies in the bucket list, SAVP makes an interesting candidate, I met with Andrew Knott very recently and would give him the benefit of the doubt here.

[dandadandan] 16/3/2017 12:29

Well done Andrew K CEO of SAVP an excellent Vox Podcast.

Just go and listen to the podcast 735 on Vox.

They even gave 4 reasons to invest and the one most of us should like is the CEO has a substantial holding. He is 'putting his money where his mouth is' and not many do that.

Exploration costs are less than $1 a barrel and the 3d seismics are high quality.

Watch out for those new proposals.

This share price is about to shift UP, IMO.

Get them before they gap Up.

GLA

[dorset64] 15/3/2017 23:09

Thanks for posting the info TTT.