Savannah Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[thomasthetank1] 15/3/2017 18:56

Hi guys,

I’ve spoken to the Company and understand that there has been absolutely no change in Henderson’s holdings in Savannah. They remain committed holders of Savannah’s shares. As the trade only went through today they are not completely sure where it came from, but it might just be a case of a fund moving its holdings internally.

[zengas] 15/3/2017 17:59

If they are selling at these levels they must be taking a loss as the placings were about the only way in on quantity at 58p and 38p. Someones picking them up and can't all be PIs to absorb them imo.

[dandadandan] 15/3/2017 17:52

New person in charge at Hendos and they are going through a change.
Would not be surprised by anything that they do at the moment.

Currently clearing loan notes at AST as well.

Are they in need of cash?

GLA.

[mdumont] 15/3/2017 17:37

Who's the big seller? Read somewhere it is Henderson's. Anybody got an angle on this?

[ch1rp] 15/3/2017 16:23

Not bad for an overall flat day at the market!

[mdumont] 15/3/2017 15:42

I tweeted Zak this morning to give him a nudge. Doesn't know me from Adam but it might help!

[thegreatgeraldo] 15/3/2017 15:39

mdumont - presumably a lot of the Chinese wells are dev wells? You'd hope for a high hit rate with those!

[dandadandan] 15/3/2017 15:32

Lots of investors are not believing what the potential is here, IMO.

Zengas has also got it spot on, IMO and this share price is about to move gradually UP.

Watch out for the tipsters at the weekend and do not forget Zac on Tip TV.
We have not seen any comment from him.
A Vox podcast should start this rolling.

Come on IR get the CEO to broadcast some of those data findings....
Spread the word...

GLA.

[mdumont] 15/3/2017 15:29

From Proactiveinvestors this morning - • Savannah Petroleum (LON:SAVP – 31p) – The Time has Come: Today's news that the Company has secured a rig for its three well programme finally fires the starting gun on the event that all the Company's investors have been waiting for – the first well programme. There is little doubt that the Company has had a measured approached its first drilling campaign, and given the costs involved, we do not think that this is a bad thing. While the Company has done all it can to maximise the chances of success, predrilling chances of commercial success (opposed to just technical success) still stand at between 5 – 11% for good prospects that have been well worked in a mature, well-understood basin. However, this is compensated for by the step up in value that accompanies an exploration prospect's discovery and ultimate declaration of commerciality. The time has now come to spin the bit and se e if the desktop studies and seismic interpretations will bear fruit.Can somebody explain why they reckon only 5-11% for good prospects when the Chinese have managed 75% success?

[busterbrown2] 15/3/2017 14:17

Zengas - hope its OK to add your LSE post here?
---------------------------------------------------------
Thanks TTT for the broker notes.

nen - no problem posting that.

Just out of interest - if there is a farm out it will be interesting to see what potential back costs we may get paid for considering what was forked out to buy all 4 block interests as well as the extensive seismic.

Stifel note expecting a further increase of circa 150 mmbls to previous.
So an expected increase of 7% to the 2185 mmbls RISKED recoverable.
If so that puts a 7% increase on the old share price target i used WITHOUT a farmout taking it from £21.00 to £22.40 though needing some modest future fundraising along the way.

On a 50% farmout that would increase the old price target from £10.50 by 7% to £11.20.
Above was using a similar success rate as CNPC (79%) and similar is expected here.
My target was 260p - 360p on a 50% farmout with a much lower 25% - 35% success rate so a 7% increase would take that to 280p - 385p + impact of any farm in value.

Lots of upside to play for with 3 confirmed wells and an option for another 6 and multiple reservoir targets in each well.

[thelung] 15/3/2017 12:13

Agreed - you could buy this morning under 30p

[dorset64] 15/3/2017 12:12

Good news and still only 7 new posts, shows just how much SAVP are under the radar at the moment.

[flagon] 15/3/2017 11:17

Thanks Thomas

[timberwolf3] 15/3/2017 10:55

No news yet on farm in partner, Chinese may be.

[thomasthetank1] 15/3/2017 10:13

Hi guys - thought the below notes from Panmure Gordon and Stifel might be of interest.

Panmure Gordon

Savannah Petroleum – Rig contract (SAVP LN, Mkt cap: £81m) – Positive

Savannah has contracted a drilling rig for a firm three well programme and six option wells to test its onshore acreage in Niger. The company has signed a Letter of Award with Great Wall Drilling Company for the GWDC Rig 89. The rig is in-country and drilling operations are expected to commence this half. Savannah has contracted long lead items for the campaign. Processing of the 3D seismic is ongoing with fast track results expected by the end of 1Q17. Savanah did not disclose the targets, which are still likely being assessed in light of the seismic data but it had previously identified Damissa, Bushiya and Kunama as potential targets. We understand that it is still the company’s expectation that it will conclude a farm-out before drilling commences. Assuming that is executed it would likely be a material positive for share price from current levels. We are Buyers of Savannah with a 70p/share Target Price.

Stifel - Target price of 55p

Contracts drilling rig for firm three-well programme

Savannah has announced a firm three-well programme for its inaugural drilling campaign in the Agadem Basin of Niger. It's a plus that there are options over six additional well slots, a structure that would enable a potential industry partner to participate in a more expansive campaign. The company sees rig mobilisation within the first half; more detail on the precise drilling targets will follow in the coming months but we see c.150 mmbbls of potential resource adds in a success case. Now with line of sight to drilling, we would expect the shares to perform well.

[mdumont] 15/3/2017 09:19

Anybody want to know what all the fuss is about, try reading this.http://www.sharepickers.com/5-reasons-put-savannah-petroleum-savp-watchlist/

[mdumont] 15/3/2017 09:15

I think shares in short supply, can only buy 10,000 with Barclays. Last 2 trades from just after 0800. Great prospects here.

[zengas] 15/3/2017 08:01

Drilling contract firmly awarded.

The same outfit that drilled the CNPC wells on Agadem (they are a subsidiary of CNPC also).

Might be an indication also of an upgrade in resource figures given they expect fast track results in approximately 2 weeks on R3.

[dorset64] 14/3/2017 08:47

News will come when its ready.

[buffythebuffoon] 14/3/2017 08:46

Maybe they've been drinking tea while crossing their eyes.

Works for me.

Buffy

[dandadandan] 14/3/2017 08:44

One week gone and still no news.

Has Jessica gone on holiday?

They are making us wait.
The 'legal beavers' must be waiting on a government department document.

Cross the t's and dot the i's.

GLA....

[dandadandan] 07/3/2017 10:09

Just tell Jessica to get the CEO to issue a statement.
Just give him a big smile and flash those eyes.

We are still waiting and he is late to the party.

It is all lined up, signed and sealed and ready to go.

Do not make us wait for the 'Easter Eggs'.

GLA.

[thelung] 02/3/2017 15:52

a maccam would do their dog :-)

[dorset64] 02/3/2017 15:50

lol timberwolf.