Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rockyride] 13/3/2024 17:29

My 9am call with IR this morning:-We covered a lot of ground on a country by country tour of Africa. There were lots and lots of smaller convos but here are the main snippets:-SS"AK backwards and forwards from SS whilst conducting other work in different African places.""That's, very astute of you to say that. And yes, IdEALLY AK is pushing very hard for a strong Government commitment before any issue of AD"NIGER"Things are going well again and we do expect first oil this year although we could not give a date as to when""Savannah have recently spoken to the Government who are keen to see first oil from Savannah TY but more importantly want to see more drilling from out company"CHAD / CAMEROON"We have the same set of attorneys working on the case since they were first appointed. AK is happy with the work they are doing and they will be retained until ICC decisions are made"NIGERIA"BAU is going well and debt restructure is still very high up on the agenda"GLA

[kinkell] 13/3/2024 17:19

This is my last post on this subject because I feel it is becoming personal.

We cannot pass judgement on Chad and SS until we see the final outcomes.

I think the delay in Niger was strategic - to await the pipeline.

He said there were a number of opportunities and I assume he selected what he considered the potentially most lucrative in terms of growing production.

His target is very ambitious and I remain hopeful that it will be achieved, but obviously I could be very wrong.

I have been invested here for years too.

I think we should agree to differ rather than clutter the board with speculative opinions.

[gisjob2] 13/3/2024 16:20

Kinkell,
Who's sensible time frame do we have to be on ? Yours ?
I've been invested here for years so lets not suggest the 'fast buck' argument.
We probably disagree over the lack of development of Niger since drilling 5 successful wells, which cannot be put down to recent security issues in the last year.
I guess overall we disagree on a lot to do with SAVE.
AK may be trying to build a major company but he has chosen the 'difficult areas' you mention and if NOT successful with SS on the back of Chad going south, with by his own admission plenty of options regarding acquisitions over the last few years, it couldn't be classed as successful.
I'm not sure how you can suggest that Chad was not a failure, last time I checked we weren't allowed anywhere near the project. How is that not a failure ?.
As for SAVE being an investment, anyone buying when it came to market years ago is still underwater and the share price has never been as high, so not a successful investment either over the years as it stands today.

[kinkell] 13/3/2024 16:04

gisjob2

As I said these deals have taken time with unknown benefit so far. Of course AK has to be judged by results but over a sensible time frame. So far he has had two brilliant results and no failure. I make allowances for the fact that he is aiming for high rewards in a difficult area to oerate in. He is trying to build a major company and he is not in it for a fast buck - it is an investment.

[gisjob2] 13/3/2024 15:22

Kinkell,
There's a lot of things we're not aware of but that doesn't mean they're not happening. The fact is the Chad and SS deals are bound to have taken some time and energy, and still are. To suggest otherwise is to suggest the company has had no input in it's own management.
I'm happy to applaud AK if he has success with his deals but they are the decisions he has made and he needs to be judged on the success or otherwise of his decisions. I'm not blinkered enough to happy clap whatever happens and whatever the various outcomes are as I don't think it is an unreasonable position to judge AK by the results of his actions. If they are successful all the better. To suggest AK is not responsible for the success or failure of the direction the company seems a bizarre concept to me but each to their own.

[kinkell] 13/3/2024 14:11

gisjob2,

Until the court decision and the CC outcome are known, we cannot accurately assess the final position. Time has been invested that cannot be recovered, but the company could have engaged in alternative projects which may or may not have proved more or less rewarding. As far as I am aware there is no evidence that progress in Nigeria or Niger has been adversely affected by the Chad and SS activities. AK is reputed to be a workoholic and I suspect he is and has been doing everything in his power to enhance the company he founded.It is easy to criticise from a distance.

[gisjob2] 13/3/2024 11:13

Kinkell,
It's not hindsight, it's due dilligence. It doesn't take much to understand the risks of dealing with countries such as Chad and South Sudan. I accept the structure of the deals reduce the risk to the company as a whole but there will be a cost involved with failure and a waste of a couple of years that could well have been better spent. We have heard from AK himself of the numerous available projects to evaluate for acquisition. Unfortunately if SS fails to get over the line and on the back of the Chad debacle, the company's selection processes do have to be called into question.
SS haven't exactly rolled the red carpet out to SAVE

[kinkell] 13/3/2024 10:22

gisjob2 -2650

Chad and SS at the time would have been regarded as low hanging fruit. The negative reaction to such beneficial offers to these countries could not easily have been forseen. What loss or losses, if any, will arise if both deals fail? I don't know and nobody does until the court decision becomes available, but I suspect modest because of the careful structures that have been deployed. Any such loss or losses need to be measured against the large potential upside which seemed to me at the time modest risk. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[rockyride] 13/3/2024 09:59

Kinkell - done and they have had other requests too. They are looking into it and will consider for the future.

[rockyride] 13/3/2024 08:54

I have a call with IR in 6 minutes and will put it to them - perfect timing

[kinkell] 13/3/2024 08:47

Zen, RR, MT

I believe you all have influence with SAVE.

Could you please encourage AK to be interviewed on PI World, which would give investors a much better understanding of both SAVE and AK?

[buffythebuffoon] 13/3/2024 08:33

By the way, whilst that picture is of course at a PR event, he did in fact win the gold medal at the Scottish Championships.

Buffy

[buffythebuffoon] 13/3/2024 08:31

Kinkell,

You can take AK at his word, but don’t ever be thrown by him.

hxxps://guardian.ng/sport/accugas-edinburgh-judo-club-boost-athletes-skills-at-master-class-weekend/

Buffy

[kinkell] 13/3/2024 08:04

RR - 2651. Thank you for your comment.
I don't need to tell you how difficult it is to predict short term share movements, particularly since the long suspensions and radio silence have generated a great deal of emotional response!

Assuming SS fails I would expect the share price to reflect the fundamentals of the business if not immediately then fairly soon. That comes down to an up-to-date report on Accugas, an assessment of the current position in Niger, the position regarding the acquisition of a the mooted next acquisition (eg partnership with the host government) and any other relevant information eg renewables.

I think Zen's view of the likely share price in these circumstances is likely to be much more valuabled than mine but I would not expect a discount to the suspension price.

If ss proceeds I would expect a sharp increase in the share price, for it is worth.

[interzone] 13/3/2024 06:56

There is nothing I can find in the public domain about the request from Savannah or the decision of the ICCI. The last thing we saw was Savannah winning an injunction to prevent the monies from the oil being used by COTCO. That injunction is under appeal but has not progressed since last September. Therefore, to me, this suggests Savannah were asking for those monies to be transferred to them pending the aribtration decision. Not that surprising then that the ICCI rejected this and so we would just be in the same position as previously where all monies are effect in limbo. Could be wrong but that's the logical conclusion from the currently known published documents.

[1madmarky] 13/3/2024 04:51

Interzone post 2653
This suggests to me that Savannah's share of the chad oil revenue is not going into a fund or escrow account. Thus if we win, how would we be compensated?
Others seem to have that opinion, I don't understand where they got the information for that opinion.
So if we win, we will have to obtain some sort of sanction on the chad oil thus getting additional income until any financial settlement amount has been paid to us..... yes/no or am I missing the point completely?

[mount teide] 13/3/2024 00:13

kk - Well argued, balanced view of the investment risk/reward - thanks.

[gisjob2] 12/3/2024 23:32

Wouldn't be surprised to see 16p without SS on the back of Chad debacle.
With SS 40p quickly and rising especially when refinancing done and when SAVE start producing from Niger

[rockyride] 12/3/2024 23:29

kk - an excellent and very well articulated post.What would you see the share price coming back as with and without a SS deal based on the knowledge that you have of today?TIA

[gisjob2] 12/3/2024 23:15

It's the degree of risk that has been in AK's control. Niger was always a decent project which had already been a success for the Chinese. That's why i invested. Seven Energy in Nigeria was what I considered as safe a deal as possible in Nigeria due to being mainly a gas project rather than oil. I agree AK deserves some credit for these.
Chad and South Sudan however push the envelope much further with regard to risk. We all know the potential of the projects but it's AK who has decided to accept this risk and so it's he who needs to be judged on whether there's a successful outcome. I agree there has been some bad luck but I would hope SAVE's growth plans rely on more than luck. There's the saying in business you're only as good as your last deal. Let's hope it's good news regarding SAVE's last deal. If not it would be churlish to not even consider ditching these extremely high risk rainbow projects and change direction a little.

[kinkell] 12/3/2024 22:58

My understanding is that AK was a multi millionaire prior to founding Save at age32, presumably from having been a very skilful investor in the o&g sector. He has invested his own funds heavily in the company. These are the attributes as investors we seek in our entrepreneurs. The company was established to take advantage of the unique oppotunities thoughtto be arising in Africa, an area well known for political risks.

He subsequently acquired a very impressive oil licence in Niger on what appears to be favourable terms which has subseqently yielded five out of five discoveries and has the potential to be enormously rewarding, particularly with the pipeline to the coast now in operation.

Despite wide initial scepticism the Accugas acquisition was acquired imo very skilfully and has proved extremely successful.

The transactions in Chad and SS both appeared to offer very rewarding opportunities and SS may still prove to be just that. They also appeared to offer superb opportunities to both countries in terms of further investment, management and diversification into employment in green energy. It seems astonishing that both regimes are/were not falling over themselves to grasp the opportunities on offer for their economies.

As far as I can see AK is very risk averse in the way that he structures the deals, minimising company cash and placing emphasis in deploying vendors' funds and risks.

While the delays are frustrating, the fact is that while the shares are suspended there is not much point in putting management time and costs into providing information to holders while they are unable to transact.

Although the outcome of the Chad venture remains uncertain there is the prospect of a substantial court award in due course.

I really cannot see the justification for the criticism of management. Agree that the share price has not made progress so far, indeed the opposite, but then progress of the business is a different matter. AK has suffered the setbacks as a shreholder like the rest of us and we should all have been aware of the risks that were involved by investing in Africa. So if we take risks we must accept the disappointments that may follow.

In my view the company has suffered a degree of bad luck but there is hope that the future will bring more favouable outcomes with potentially disproportionate rewards.

w

[rockyride] 12/3/2024 19:51

Gj2 - I agree with your 2645 post 100%

[gisjob2] 12/3/2024 19:36

Think SAVE receiving oil revenues whilst in arbitration would have been a step to far to be honest. Possession being nine tenths etc etc. However I believe the courts will finally find that the Nationalization by the Chad Government was illegal and find in SAVE's favour.