Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[scottishfield] 21/12/2024 13:56

Very tired of all this now, despite what might or might not be 'going on', I think the shareholders are being very much taken for granted.

[porschefund] 21/12/2024 13:07

Investors Chronicle article

Savannah Energy suspension goes on and on

When should a listed company cease to be considered publicly traded? Savannah Energy (SAVE) has now passed two years of its shares being suspended, because of a South Sudan deal considered a reverse takeover. The original agreement with Petronas announced in December 2022 fell apart in August, but Savannah has been working on an alternative deal.

In an update on Friday, the company said it had “signed an agreement with another energy company to discuss collaboration in relation to the potential alternative transaction”. Another update is expected in February. This is not a new situation for Savannah shareholders – another suspension lasted six months in 2021. But maintaining the situation because another deal might happen is just bizarre.

[fft] 21/12/2024 09:47

Upwego,I am not sure that I want a company I have shares in to want to buy assets that *no one* else wants. That seems to me like playing poker. AK has less experience than the companies you mentioned, yet he thinks he has found the holy grail. I don't think the market would believe him.

[upwego] 21/12/2024 07:00

As frustrating as it is, I`m starting to think slightly differently now, Petronas just walked away, and I have no doubt that CNPC, Sinopec, and ONGC which hold the remainder would probably want out, after seeing Petronas just walk away, why would these 3 big companies want savannah in? why wouldn't they all just not buy petronas`s stake and all of them 3 companies own a bigger interest? They don`t want what we have and who would after a rocky 12 months of uncertainty, these big boys are looking to ditch there non - performers and concentrate on better assets in better locations, out with the old and in with the new??

I think Savannah is bringing on muscle and financial backing to take the lot, it`s the only way I can see a RTO transaction still deemed to be larger than the current market cap. Maybe Vitol coming to the dance floor, as they would find away to market the oil with or without a pipeline?? Certainly interesting but still frustrating at the same time.

In this regard, since the last announcement, an affiliate of Savannah has signed an agreement with another energy company to discuss collaboration in relation to the potential alternative transaction. A further update on progress, and associated matters, is expected to be made by the end of February 2025.

[rockyride] 20/12/2024 19:49

EDIT - ignore my previous post a few moments ago and just read this one - damned predictive! And I do not know how to edit posts!Cjtk - it is my prerogative to ask the question of AIM regulation, that is why the team exists. I feel I have the right to pose my question. If the stock market agree with the continued suspension I am simply asking for more information to be given to PI's via more detailed RNS. And if they look in to this a bit deeper they may deem that the company must resume trading. After-all there is a human element here and our NOMAD / AK maybe using too much of their potential poetic license. I hope the AIM look in to this in more detail if they are not 100% upto speed with everything that is really going on.

[rockyride] 20/12/2024 19:47

Cjtk - it is my prerogative to ask the question of AIM regulation, that is why the team exists. I feel I have the right to pose my question. If the stock market agree with the continued suspension I am simply asking for more information to be given to PI's via more detailed RNS. And if they look in to this a bit deeper they may deem that the company must resume trading. After-all there is a human element here and our NOMAD / AK maybe using too much of their potential poetic license. I hope the AIM look in to this in more detailed RNS if they are not 100% upto speed with everything that is really going on.

[fireplace22] 20/12/2024 19:17

Surely Aim regulation are complicit in allowing the continuation of the suspension, if SAVE were not compliant with the rules then AIM should have ben jumping on them. To say they will open a file on something they should be consistently monitoring reeks of irresponsibility.

[captain james t kirk] 20/12/2024 18:13

Whilst extremely frustrating, I take comfort from the fact that 65% of the shares are held by 3%+ blue chip institutions and the directors, who to varying degrees have "skin in the game". They and other insiders have continued to support the board and who am I to disagree with them.
Experience has taught me that when pi's make waves, they sometimes create a tsunami, with the danger that it could submerge us all. The law of unintended consequences has a habit of biting one in the derriere.
Today's rns announced some progress : "since the last announcement, an affiliate of Savannah has signed an agreement with another energy company to discuss collaboration in relation to the potential alternative transaction".
The end of February takes us that much closer to a decision from the ICC and who knows what else may be in the pipeline.
Those insiders for sure.
I fail to see any benefit in attacking the Company in this manner, when it is by law required to operate in the best interests of its shareholders.

[robsy2] 20/12/2024 17:58

Yes thanks RR

[rockyride] 20/12/2024 14:47

And the reply received from AIM regulation:-Thank you for your email regarding Savannah Energy plc. AIM Regulation will now open a file and consider this. Kind regards AIM REGULATION

[rockyride] 20/12/2024 14:45

Sent to:- aimregulation AT lseg DOT com earlier today:-Hi - to whom it may concern. Savannah Energy (SAVE) is listed on AIM and regulated by Strand Hanson. In December 2022 they signed a SPA and suspended from trading as the deal was deemed to be a RTO. The SPA was cancelled some months ago but SAVE have continued to be suspended on the basis of what seems to be a very flaky basis. Shareholders have been given next to no information on how they can remain suspended and the NOMAD now refuse to have contact with private investors. After over 2 years of being suspended, I personally find this situation absolutely unacceptable and would kindly ask that you look in to this situation and get back to me ASAP? If you agree that SAVE are in the right to remain suspended, surely PI's should be given more information as to how this is allowed and what is going on. If you deem the current situation to be unacceptable, maybe you should be forcing the NOMAD and the company to resume trading forthwith. Kind regards

[1madmarky] 20/12/2024 07:15

Yep, does suggest a different approach is now being followed. Perhaps this will bare fruit.

[chopsy] 20/12/2024 07:08

Tiny glint of progress. Next update end Feb 2025!

[1madmarky] 14/12/2024 10:01

Naira now back to where it was around 30th June, so no FX loss potentially. Although, as we now have Naira denominated debt, the company better have a suitable hedge in place.

[upwego] 10/12/2024 07:25

Zengas post 3428

If we are going for a smaller piece of the cake, then really the value would be considerably less than first anticipated value $1.25b, which would not exceed the market cap of SAVE, so why are we still suspended? Current average production for year is 81000 bopd but probably significantly less than this with problems with the pipeline and marketable route. I reckon daily production is no more than 50,000bopd.

In theory if the asset is producing 50000 bop we should not be suspended with the terms being significantly different, which In my eyes would be significantly less value, due to the ongoing problems.

Could it be that we are going for even more and AK wanting to take more of the other parties and become operator?? who knows. Hopefully one day will know lol :) he did this with Chad to and went for more of the asset.

The assets themselves are estimated to have produced an average of 81 Kbopd on a gross basis in 2024 to end October, reduced from approximately 150 Kbopd in FY 2023, given the prolonged downtime experienced by the Bashayer Pipeline Company ("BAPCO") pipeline, which exports a significant portion of the country's oil production.

[mount teide] 09/12/2024 23:13

Seplat Energy's acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited - When High Hopes Meet Harsh Realities!

Some great research on the deal from Zero GCoS



Seplat Energy's acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU) represents a transformative but high-risk transaction:

* Financial Impact: Assets show negative post-tax NPV under current terms, with 85% tax burden severely limiting cash flow generation.

* Growth vs. Risk: While the deal doubles production and reserves, it requires substantial capital investment ($475M peak in 2027) with uncertain returns.

* Key Challenge: Success depends heavily on transitioning to more favorable tax terms under Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act - without this shift, the investment thesis becomes difficult to justify.

* The transaction positions Seplat as Nigeria's leading independent E&P player but at a potentially unsustainable financial cost under current fiscal terms.

[1madmarky] 06/12/2024 15:56

Agreed -

Massive losses due to the Naira devaluation. Hopefully going forwards this will be a positive income ( capital gain plus interest on our funds in the country). Plus at some point the exchange rate make-up payment slipped from being paid in the current period into the next period.
So, certainly not as bad as it looks at first glance.

[ifthecapfits] 06/12/2024 15:51

Borrowed from the other place.

[thommie] 06/12/2024 07:52

The net debt figure looks depressing, but as outlined before in former discussions part of it is due to debt we owe to exxon for the chad deal (170m$).But only 35m$ of it would affect save directly if the arbitration process through the ICC wouldnt award anything to save. So in both cases this net debt will drop dramatically (by 135m$ if ICC case would be lost) and by much more if we win ofc... Also a big part of the higher net debt figure is related to the naira problem... As we were told in one of the former rns's we are getting paid by our customers a big part of the loss... Thats the "other income" figure of revenue that belongs to the losses made in 2023 and early 2024 by naira devaluation. And a big part of that hasnt been collected to date.At least thats how I understand it. Any other views?

[1madmarky] 05/12/2024 17:09

Naira actually going in the right direction against the dollar. Must have the phone upside down!

[croasdalelfc] 04/12/2024 19:47

13th January 2025 is 500 days post the customary adjustments for the SIPEC acquisition of 75% of 1400kbopd. If the acquisition completes that day what net figure do you think SAVE will pay?$40m or less ?(for 75%)

[zengas] 04/12/2024 14:24

Yesterday was the first time we got the statement that it would likely be multiple acquiring parties which i feel is certainly different if had been said as multiple bidders - so i think there's movement towards a deal but whether acceptable to us is another thing.

There's 64 producing fields across 3 major blocks.

Production was 150,000 bopd which was roughly 50,000 bopd for the Petronas interest.

This had fallen to 81,000 bopd due to the pipeline issue so pro-rata possibly 26,500 bopd to the Petronas interest.

At the time it said the price was 'up to' $1250m. i had thought that perhaps $200-$250m of this would be in the form of earn outs on higher oil prices/production targets etc in a specified timeframe to Petronas.

We had no company statement on reserves but Afr.Intell said it was around 300 mmbls at the time.

So what constitutes us still being in a RTO situation that the Nomad has to sign off on ?

Are SAVE in the running for 10-30% ??? and is that coupled to the Sipec acquisition leaving us suspended until the adm doc ?( It was in the Afentra case on 3 seperate acquisitions in Angola as i see it).

Going on the above figures perhaps the Govt is seeking about $1 billion from these assets as Petronas had valued them - therefore about $20,000 producing bl and $3.50 per P2 barrel ?

Depending on the deal and who the multiple acquirers are - 10 - 20 - 25% would be about 2500/5000/6250 bopd on current production with those figures doubling on the reopened pipeline and perhaps 30/60/75 mmbo P2 ?

Using the above metrics and on the figures based on double the production/re-opened pipeline and P2 reserves surely somewhere between $100m/$200m/$250m for deals of that size and where it's at ? Either of those surely suggest below a RTO threshold ? .... unless added to Sipec .... or we're after a bigger percentage ?

[zengas] 04/12/2024 10:53

That's to 31/10/24 not full year.

Total Revenues and other operating income = $320.3m = Total Revenues of $207.7m and $112.6m of other operating income (ie re billed forex losses).

Cash collections for the 10 months = $239.8m.

So about $80.5m of above outstanding at 30/10/24 versus net debt of $568.7m = therefore depending when paid since or by year end = real net debt figure more likely $488m.

The company has guided total revenues of greater than $245m for full year so implies a further $38m minimum income being done (above the $207.7m figure) to 31/12/24.

While it looks greater at that date - it's not totally reflective of the underlying numbers. The one off major capex spend for the compression project won't reoccur either so i'm looking for a major improvement here on, along with the debt drawdowns having an impact.