Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bushman1] 21/11/2024 07:01

Nico, SAVE are suspended due to a direct or indirect, potential acquisition of Petronas assets ~ or similar ~ in South Sudan. SAVE PR have not provided any details re when trading will resume. The last few RNS's have simply kept on kicking the can down the road. A further update is due early December . Would welcome any thoughts on how feasible this might be ..........

[1madmarky] 21/11/2024 05:59

hxxps://punchng.com/dangote-resumes-us-crude-purchase-after-three-months/
Mr Dangote is determined to get his refinery up to capacity

[gisjob2] 20/11/2024 13:49

But it didn't happen! If...If....If my Auntie had a c@ck she'd be my Uncle!.

AK is at the helm, he decides the path of the company and he should be judged on performance and shareholder value which is lamentable in the years since floating.

If AK couldn't see potential issues with countries like South Sudan he's in the wrong business. Shareholders rarely invest for altruistic reasons only, they expect a return on investment. I would suggest around 10 years is more than patient, yet shareholder value has been destroyed in that time.

[zengas] 20/11/2024 12:22

Said it before, we would have been in an entirely better and different situation re valuation when the Exxon assets were acquired.

The cash would have been flowing in this past 2 years and likely that Niger would have been able to progress in that time also - possibly producing and net debt on those assets much, much less.

As to valuation - imo we would have been in the 80p+ range now regardless of South Sudan (Chad, Cameroon - Cotco, Accugas, Sipec and Niger).

I don't see it any differently and the evidence imo is backed up by the 67p/share damages claimed against Chad.

I don't see where AKs performance could have allowed for the above. The performance will be measured imo what comes from the Chad resolution. As for whatever is going on in S.Sudan, i expect it to stand on it's own merit.

[nico115] 20/11/2024 12:20

I have a small holding here .Any idea when suspension will be lifted and what price we may get on relisting ?Why are we still suspended ?

[gisjob2] 19/11/2024 23:31

Mount Teide,
That's what I did, trying to get my average down. I bought at 7.9p during Covid to lower my average. That helped but doesn't excuse AK's performance over the last few years or even since SAVE came to market. Like you said, all those years and still half the original price.

[mount teide] 19/11/2024 21:24

'Anyone could have halved the share price'

And that's before downward adjustment for 10 years of inflation.

If I were an IPO institutional investor I would be far from happy with AK's performance over the last decade.

So, it was great that many PI's were able to build exposure during the Pandemic single figure lows..... and take advantage of the opportunity to invest at a circa 80% discount to the average weighted price (39p) of all the II equity raises over the last 10 years!

[gisjob2] 19/11/2024 20:25

He's done nothing to prove me wrong over the last 2 or 3 years!
As a long suffering shareholder I'd love him to prove me wrong and get the share price somewhere near the float price. Could that even be called a success?, maybe not, but I'd be happier.

Anyone could have halved the share price, it isn't clever.

[kinkell] 19/11/2024 17:42

I fear that you continue to underestimate the man.

[gisjob2] 19/11/2024 16:48

I've doubted pretty much everything AK has done over the last 2 years with the exception of the increase of Nigeria assets.

[kinkell] 19/11/2024 16:15

I fear there may be few takers and suspect the Chinese, for example, are formidable negotiators, just like AK!

I hope you don't serously doubt that he will be making every effort to make Niger profitable.

[gisjob2] 19/11/2024 14:55

If it were easy any of us could do AK's job, he's paid handsomely to get this sort of thing done.

[kinkell] 19/11/2024 14:50

If only it were that easy!

[gisjob2] 19/11/2024 12:57

With the Chinese already a huge presence in Niger and a pipeline to market, I would say Niger has much more chance of being monetised than South Sudan either by SAVE, a partnership or a sale. SAVE just need to get a move on one way or another.

[pldazzle] 19/11/2024 12:10

I would say SS is maybe 0.5% investable, Niger maybe 5% investable. These percentages are of course arbitrary - but the bottom line is that (a) neither looks attractive, and (b) comparisons are pretty much irrelevant.

[gisjob2] 18/11/2024 11:57

Let's hope so !

[gooseman1979] 18/11/2024 11:48

Gisjob,

Whether or not it's more investable than SS is a different question. I would imagine that the view of most on here would be that the odds of concluding a transaction in SS would be significantly less than 50%, so SS seems a lot less likely to be of relevance to SAVE's ongoing business than Niger.

[gisjob2] 18/11/2024 11:29

Gooseman,
I would suggest Niger is more investable than South Sudan. i.e. troubles subsided and a reliable route to market for the oil.

The original idea was to find a partner in Niger.
Maybe the Chinese would be the answer. If not after years of no progress since drilling 5 successful wells out of 5, SAVE need to find a way to monetise Niger one way or another.

[gooseman1979] 18/11/2024 11:05

I realise that one of the major planned activities for SAVE over recent years that has not materialised has been progress in Niger. However, given what is currently happening to mining companies in Mali (and what happened to SAVE in Chad), is Niger really investable now for a UK-based company going it alone?

On the renewables side, maybe it works if it is a project with guarantees heavily backed by the likes of the WB / IFC, AfDB?

However, on the oil side, unless any investment pays back ultra quickly, I just don't see that major investment is feasible unless we are partnered in our blocks with the Chinese - there would be too much risk of expropriation / forced renegotiation and then SAVE's only recourse would be to more international arbitration.

[ifthecapfits] 17/11/2024 12:42

hxxps://thewhistler.ng/gov-eno-sacks-ibom-power-md/amp/

[ifthecapfits] 17/11/2024 12:39

hxxps://thewhistler.ng/accugas-denies-responsibility-over-power-outage-in-akwa-ibom/amp/

borrowed from the other thread.

[porschefund] 16/11/2024 20:08

Thanks Captain James T Kirk, for the record no apology has ever been received publicly or privately. To quote Pope “to err is human, to forgive divine”. I didn’t expect an apology and for me it’s water under the bridge but RR’s refusal to retract his libellous accusations about Zengas is in my opinion the measure of the man.

[1madmarky] 16/11/2024 15:58

More good news on the nigeria oil production side of things


Eventually this sort of progress must be reflected in the value of the currency. At which point we might even make an FX profit.... yeah I know I'll wash my mouth out with soap and water...😬

[zengas] 14/11/2024 20:23

Never worry who ‘plugs’ it RR “paid or not” as you still allege and have never withdrawn. You were happy to ring all and sundry at the company/PR as if you had somehow gotten more insight than anyone else to post to the bbs when there was nothing new to be gleaned that wasn’t in the public domain. Perhaps you made it up as you went along ? As you say - wind your neck in. At least by the time it comes back you might have grown up by then.

[1madmarky] 14/11/2024 17:30

Continued progress in nigeria
hxxps://www.arise.tv/nnpc-ends-decades-of-petroleum-importation-partners-with-dangote-refinery-for-local-supply/