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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Savannah Energy Plc | SAVE | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.20 | -2.82% | 6.90 | 16:35:23 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.00 | 6.75 | 7.10 | 6.90 | 7.10 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| OIL & GAS PRODUCERS |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 17/6/2025 13:19 by zengas Div i prefer to hold both as they both imo offer exceptional upside potential in the medium term regardless of past performance.Save owed hard cash for receivables and to be addressed by govt in part cash and promisory notes (saleable). Bolt on Sipec acquisition growing to $100m+ of revenues next 12 months - already almost quadrupled from $18m to $73m pro rata at $65/b oil since March. Sales to new customers from Q2 post new well can allow for up to 10-13,000 boe of new gas production. 5K boepd at current average could be a step change of $40m increased revenue. Outcome of arbitration. Further hydrocarbon acquisition. Niger start up or future sale. At the current price, 2 -3 of the above should mark a material shift imo. |
Posted at 06/6/2025 00:34 by zengas I wonder if Lekoil is struggling ?We still have a SAVE Nigerian director on the Fenikso board so should know whats going on. Receipt of funds which are all 8.65% of their gross crude payments. 5th Jul 2024 $1.332m 15th Aug $838.5k. 24th Sept $690.9k. 28th Oct $403.9k. 12th Dec $543.2k. 31st Jan 2025 $417.9k. 19th Mar $676.4k 4th June $553.67k Over the last 12 months they'e paid $5m to Fenikso - meaning Lekoils gross for a year was under $60m revenue so even using a low of $60/barrel, production must be under 2800 bopd ? It's taken from 31 Dec 2022 to reduce the loan by $15.2m from $51.9m to $36.7m after a period of high oil prices or $6m/year average. In the last year it has reduced by only $4m so at the current lower oil price it will take another 9 years if production/investmen That seems to be Lekoils only income so how do they even begin to progress that big 700 mmbo discovery (even if they still have an interest). I posted on Optimum/Save a number of times here about that huge discovery ? Would Save be back at the negotiating table with Lekoil ( and/or Optimum) and sort out that hefty crippling loan and by doing so allow Fenikso to move on in some way also ? Fenikso will have only $1.5m including their energy investments valuation end of December 2025 and are looking for energy investments but they were also using some of their money buying up their own shares/reducing the number in issue which i didn't understand if they wish to grow. In the original deal, Lekoil would have gotten $50m deferred consideration (Fenikso pro-rata 8.65% ??) As part of the deal Lekoil was prevented from buying shares in Fenikso while their loan was outstanding. Save originally had the option to take on the assignment of the $135m loan between the company and Mayfair assets and Trust ltd. The original deal - "The Company entered into the Option Agreement with Savannah Energy granting it an option to be assigned the inter company debt owed to the Company by Mayfair, its associated security related to OPL 310 and all rights and benefits of the Company with respect to the Mayfair Loan. A US$1 million payment is payable by Savannah Energy to the Company upon such exercise and assignment (which has not currently been exercised). Pursuant to the Option Agreement, the Company would be paid deferred consideration in the event that Savannah Energy obtains a working interest in OPL 310 (for example, upon enforcement of security for repayment of the Mayfair Loan) and OPL 310 is developed. Such deferred consideration (capped at US$50 million) is structured as a royalty of 0.5% on crude oil sales attributable to Mayfair's actual participating interest in OPL 310 (being a 17.14% participating interest). " |
Posted at 05/6/2025 20:17 by zengas In all fairness Seplat were blessed with initial oil production of 24k bopd and had net debt of $304m and IPO'd at 210p and a m/cap of £1.1 billion on 9th April 2014RNS Number : 4066E SEPLAT 09 April 2014 The Offer Price has been set at 210 pence per Ordinary Share for shares to be traded on the LSE's main market Chairman of SEPLAT, said: "We have a production target of 85,000 barrels of oil and condensate per day by the end of 2016 from our current assets, " How it went 2014 24.2k bopd + 39.4 mmcf/d = 30.8k boepd. Net debt $304m. 2015 29k bopd + 86 mmcf/d = 43.3k boepd. Net debt $573m. 2016 10k bopd + 95 mmcf/d = 25.87k boepd. Net debt $516m 2017 17.8k bopd + 114 mmcf/d = 36.9k boepd. Net debt $141m. 2018 25.6k bopd + 145 mmcf/d = 47.87k boepd. Net cash positive $135m 2019 23.9k bopd + 131 mmcf/d = 46.5k boepd. Net debt $456m. 2020 33k bopd + 101 mmcf/d = 51k boepd. Net debt $439m. 2021 29k bopd + 108 mmcf/d = 47.6k boepd. Net debt $426m. 2022 24.7k bopd + 112mmcf/d = 44.1k boepd. Net debt $365m. 2023 28k bopd + 114mmcf/d = 47k boepd. Net debt $305m. At the end of October 2024 prior to the Exxon acquistion completing they had 29.6k bopd + 103mmcf/d = 47.5k boepd. Net debt $270m. $690m paid in dividends from ipo to end October 2024 or about £500m given the exchange averages over those 11 years of yearly, half yearly and quarterly payments of 85-90p/share in total. Despite the goal at IPO of 85,000 boepd for 2016 they never got near it. They didn't clear their net debt ever bar for one year in those 11 years. Share price high 2 months after IPO at 266p. It consistently was down 50 -75 and 80% and has taken a full 11 years to get back over its ipo price. Yes the dividends of 85-90p help from ipo (paying it actually kept the company in significant net debt all those years bar 1) but is that anymore of a return since ipo than money invested in the bank unless you got a better entry point, sat through all the court cases, a $26m cost of an aborted acquisition, oil theft, pipelines out of action, targets not met on production, infighting, immigration case trying to expel the CEO 2023 etc. Share price Dec 2014 102p. Jan 2016 55p. Jan 2017 67p. Dec 2017 107p. Aug 2018 154p. Sep 2019 101p. March 2020 40.75p. Nov 2021 71p. Dec 2022 85p. Jan 2024 121p. April 2025 161p. Now 220p post 2.75 year deal completion of Exxon assets. As regards anyone saying this is how Save should have done it. I doubt those saying it would have been any happier along the way since their ipo. The lack of BB interest and discussion speaks volumes ie a combined 742 posts over 3 threads in 11 years showed not many brave enough or stuck with it - but it's seen now as a somewhat better example than Save by our chief complainant ? |
Posted at 05/6/2025 15:22 by rockyride Wonder how our head honcho feels when he reads stuff like this:- SEPLAT Chap: "and we are are very consistent dividend payer" ... "we are rewarding our shareholders with pretty significant dividends" ... "long lived commitment to shareholders" ... "pureplay Nigeria" ... "rock sold balance sheet compared to peers" ...Enter SAVE "we relisting and just placed some shares at 7p but will be great. you all should buy more!"On Nigeria currency crisis. I think most o SEPLAT customers are invoiced in USD, and paid in USD (from presumably international cusstomers). In contrast, the majority of SAVE receivables are from the true-up mechanism for Accugas, contracted with local utilities. Somewhat different dynamics.But agree, SEPLAT have good cash collection record:Seplat Onshore had a strong year for cash call collection, highlighting our continued good relationship with our JV partners. On the NEPL/Seplat JVfor OML 4, 38, 41, we received a total of $352 million in cash call settlement for 2024, bringing the cash call receivable balance for the year to $69million (2023: $83 million). On the NUIMS/Seplat JV for OML 53, we received $66 million in cash call settlement which brought the year endbalance to $16 million (2023: $21 million). Total cash call payments received in 2024 was 47% higher than 2023 receipts. |
Posted at 12/5/2025 09:45 by zengas Not sure about the red flag.Save received around $1.7m in the last year from Fenikso. In the last 3 months mid Dec 2024 - mid March 2025 they got $316k. Lekoil pay 8.65% from their oil liftings to Fenikso which in turn pay a percentage of their gross to SAVE. Oil Price goes up or down it affects the payment level. If Lekoil gets into any difficulty then it affects the ability to pay Fenikso and ultimately SAVE. We have a non exec in Fenikso. So perhaps $5.7m now to SAVE can be put to much better use rather than smaller long term payments and the risk of non payment. It's a 50% haircut on the outstanding balance but at the current rate it would take 8-10 years to get it all. Fenikso has no other assets other than about $1.7m cash and some minor green energy interest projects in S.E Asia and dependent on continued payment from Lekoil. They want a clean break too from their obligation to us. With the oil price haven fallen it could put pressure on the ability to repay and it would ultimately reduce the level of payments. Seperately, On the original deal by late 2022 via Fenikso we were to have an option interest in OPL 310/Mayfair loan. This was an estimated 780 mmboe recoverable discovery with potential far greater upside. Lekoil came away retaining that but there was still a later court case in 2023 concerning Lekoil/Optimum petroleum. Have Lekoil still got it ? OPL310 is one for development and i'm sure this government wants movement. Save must have been after it given the option was in the original deal for them. Likewise Optimum previously had involvement in the Agadem blocks where we now are. That might all be irrelevant. Personally i think it prudent to take that $5.76m now and before year end. Within 3.5 months we should learn who the strategic investor is, coming in by 4th September with an additional $12.5m to come in. (Total $18m). We are also producing double the oil element since deal closure with it set to rise further to circa 4700 bopd. |
Posted at 04/3/2025 15:32 by ashkv My quick take on the SAVE presentation -None of my tough inquiries as to shareholder value destruction / history of delayed timelines / failure in deal selection etc were addressed. AK looking very different from what I recall / much more gaunt and lean :) Strongly encouraged long term investors to "average" in at these low levels. Per AK a selection of deals in the hopper and he doesn't expect a reverse take-over suspension / Sudan deal is now one of many under consideration with new USD 200mn facility? Focus for this year is to increase Nigeria recoverable (via enhanced customer management) and refinance remaining Accugas debt by YE 2025. Claims to have invested more in SAVE than he has been paid - though imho this assertion likely doesn't include share based compensation or loan arrangements. The main SAVE entity is remote from subsidiary debt aka Accugas etc - And interestingly Accugas debt is only contained within Accugas entity / not Stubb Creek or Uquo assets which are in stand alone separate entities. The main SAVE entity has minimal debt / and primarily related to the Exxon facility for the failed Chad transaction. AK didn't appear contrite or apologize for dire let down of long term investors - I have been invested in SAVE since 2017 and have averaged down to a level of 28p. Had sold the majority of my holding at a profit to this 28p price but now sitting with a big haircut yet again :) Acquisition of Chinese stake in Stubb Creek is imminent and should be announced very shortly. |
Posted at 02/3/2025 12:15 by interzone Just a reminder what AK said at the AGM as reported by one of the attendees'AK said in the AGM that SAVE was frustrated that whereas in both the 7E and CC RTO’s resulted in SAVE returning to the market prior to Presidential sign off and other conditions precedent being satisfied. SAVE was prevented by the Regulator from doing so without Gov sign off for SS, which restricted trading but also restricted information being released.' If that is correct, and there is no reason to doubt it,then it's out of SAVE's hands and the FSA would have no cause to get involved. What is within SAVE's remit is to explain that properly to shareholders. Whilst AK said their hands were tied about what they could share there is no excuse for the complete lack of respectful engagement over the last 2 years regarding the ongoing suspension. Frustrating as it is, I personally will most likely still be holding for a while yet after we have relisted, certainly at least until the Chad ruling. |
Posted at 25/2/2025 08:42 by oilinvestoral My sincerest apologies ZENGAS!I seem to have completely misunderstood the purpose of your post. To me your post could've been summed up in the following paragraph:I know SAVE hasn't moved much in 26 months but look at these companies. They haven't done all that well either! The grass isn't always greener.... Why did I think that? I present to you the following exhibits:Exhibit A: "These companies were also hoping to deliver the anticipated big returns and growth in their share price re-rating from their projects as at the time of Saves suspension".Exhibit B:"Like SAVE It hasn't happened"Exhibit C: "On that basis i'm not annoyed at having my investment in SAVE locked up since that time and achieving better performance elsewhere."We seem to have read exactly the same thing and came to a different conclusion... which is fine. Just thought I would clarify why I thought what I thought. No hard feelings . All the best. |
Posted at 24/2/2025 15:05 by zengas From Saves suspension date on 12th Dec 2022, i've kept track of how some other oil Cos have been doing in the exact same time frame of 2 years and 2 months. This is from an investment hold pov and not trading. These companies were also hoping to deliver the anticipated big returns and growth in their share price re-rating from their projects as at the time of Saves suspsension. Like SAVE It hasn't happened as yet for many of them either in sustaining a growth in share price other than having access to your capital. On that basis i'm not annoyed at having my investment in SAVE locked up since that time and achieving better performance elsewhere.Let's hope that whatever the initial market reaction on readmission is, SAVE can deliver on a re-rating with those catalysts in store and that directors buy once again and perhaps new institutions add if there is any slack depending on what the nature of readmission news is. Afentra - 25p - 43.5p Aminex 1p -1.05p. Angus Energy 1.5p - 0.31p. Ascent Resources 1p - 1.65p. Arrow Exploration 16.25p - 19.5p Caspian Sunrise 4p - 3.25p. Diversified Energy 2100p - 1122p. Canadian Overseas COPL 15p - Zero. Deltic 52p - 3.6p. Eco Atlantic 21p - 9.75p. Vaalco 390p - 325p. GulfKeystone GKP 200p - 189p. Harbour Energy 300p - 231p. Ithaca 180p - 141p. Jadestone 76p - 31.5p. Jersey JOG. 210p - 60.5p. Kistos 410p - 126p. Kosmos 507p - 250p. Pantheon Res 80p - 65.4p. Predator PRD 9.5p - 4.3p. Serica 280p - 128.5p. Seascape (Longboat) 21p - 36.75p. Seplat 100p - 187p. Tullow 36.25p - 16.5p. Touchstone 65p - 24p. Upland 0.8p - 1.475p. Wildcat 1.3p - 0.115p. |
Posted at 24/2/2025 12:09 by zengas Regardless of suspension/S.Sudan as if seemingly at a standstill operationally, other news/catalysts to come through.Net debt end December $634m with $145.1m due in = $488.9m underlying net debt. If we draw the entire $60m Sipec facility - puts net debt to around $548.9m. As outlined below - on Sipec/Uquo production plans, surely an increase on revenue by a further $100m/yr can be made. 'Proschefund' post on friday suggests imminent closing must be soon as the Std.Bank of S.Africa registered a charge on Savanngh Energy SC in respect of Sipec last week. Save hoped to close this in Q1. Surely adds an increased valuation in assets etc to SAVE and with a different deal possibly in reduced size re the S.Sudan Petronas assets can it still warrant a prolonged continued suspension ? On 30/9/24 Sipec had 1400 bopd estimated for 2024. The update stated that SAVE intended to increase production by 135% to 4700 bopd within 12 months (From 2k - 4.7k bopd gross). Implies 3.4k bopd of new production to Save ie an immediate increase of 1400 bopd and a further 2,000 bopd over the next 12 months from the wells that are already drilled ? Seperately - The intended drilling of an Uquo production well to provide 60-80 mmcf/d (10-13k boepd) happens sometime in H2 and my guess is Q3 given they said there would unlikely be a 'material' change to 2025 sales volumes. It sets the company up to provide an increase beyond that. Production ran at 23,100 boepd of which 88% was gas or 20,300 boepd. The CPF facility can handle 33,000 boepd (at 200 mcf/d). 5K of new gas production at $3/mcf is $33m/yr. Bar all else on what we have, those are two opportunties to grow revenue by a fairly modest $100m/yr at $60/b oil and $3/mcf. H2 = a hoped for positive outcome on the $1.2b Chad claim - is a portion of that enough to cancel or significantly reduce the present net debt while at the same time increasing revenue from what we do have - and/or the assets paying down the debt on their own merits. Clarity needed on Niger Agadem oil ? 5k or 10k bopd production posssible ? What sales value for the entire asset disposal ($100m ?) or farm in to realise something? If Parc Eolien is progressing - why not equally Agadem under the same government ? |
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