Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[upwego] 04/11/2024 08:17

probably June or December next year if were lucky :(

[1madmarky] 04/11/2024 07:31

March for relist....

[upwego] 04/11/2024 07:21

Well, it has become a sad board with constant extensions of this aquisition, it`s fair to say next year now, oh well that`s all she wrote for this year..

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 07:17

Exactly ! Laughable nonsense yet again.
Do SAVE get charged by the word for their RNS's

[divmad] 04/11/2024 07:13

So, on we go with this charade into 2025. Quelle surprise.

[1madmarky] 03/11/2024 15:30

At least they are including the RSF now in negotiations. Without whom, there was absolutely no chance of exporting anything through that pipeline. So are the RSF getting paid out of Sudan's share or has the transit price climbed that bit higher?

[gisjob2] 03/11/2024 13:45

Yes good bit of business but in Nigeria which kind of backs the point that there are opportunities in relatively serious African oil and gas countries to be found. Albeit the Fenikso deal was tiny in oil project terms, still, good return on investment due to the company being brassic and SAVE stepping in. Helps in a small way to offset the huge loss of SAVE cash due to currency issues which AK has failed to address.

[chopsy] 03/11/2024 13:31

Don't forget the successful investment we made in Fenikso.

"As previously detailed, in 2022 Savannah invested approximately US$1 million ("the Initial Investment") in Fenikso (previously known as Lekoil Limited) and, under the terms of the restructuring agreements negotiated between Savannah and Fenikso entered into in December 2022, the Company will receive payments of up to US$16.3 million over the course of the next nine years. Post-period end, Savannah has fully recovered the Initial Investment with the receipt from Fenikso of payments totalling US$1.3 million to date".

[gisjob2] 03/11/2024 12:40

Well worth the risk then ! NOT !

Wouldn't touch any business in SS with a bargepole, the Government have already been proven to be duplicitous and untrustworthy. Why AK still wants to do business there when SAVE have had no support from Government over the 2 years of trying to buy the Petronas assets is beyond belief.

That and being so reliant on the one pipeline route to market damaged during a civil war. What's not to like! lol.

How I wish I'd sold all my belongings and invested everything I own in SAVE with sound business sense like that. :-)

[1madmarky] 03/11/2024 08:11

Oil from SS may one day again flow but not for a while yet it seems.


At least they are talking to the RSF,so perhaps it stands a chance

[zengas] 03/11/2024 00:25

RR wind my neck in ?? You’re the low life that accuses people of being paid by the company - something you hadn’t the decency to retract nor still to do weeks on. That speaks volumes about you. I won’t hold my breath waiting on an apology never mind a cheque !

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 22:25

Disparaging remarks about the CEO with no evidence ?

Chad debacle (despot country)
South Sudan acquisition collapse (despot country)
Niger progress glacial and not as AK suggested programme without explanation to shareholders
Long delay to refinancing
Halving of share price
Failing to update share holders adequately
etc etc

None so blind........

[kinkell] 02/11/2024 21:40

Unfortunately what has been a brilliant board seems to be coming apart at the seams, quite unnecessarily.

The thing is that there is no share price and cannot be until current negotiations are concluded and the same applies to assessing the underlying value of the business.

So there is nothing of much sustance to debate, unless as Zen says, you want to rant...

I think the sisparaging remarks about our CEO without any solid evidence are very disappointing. He has been described as dedicated and a workaholic seem more appropriate. Of course the delays are very disapointing but every o&g company I have followed have experienced similar.

Securing Niger, reorganising the licences, delaying development until the pipeline was secured seems to me to place the asset in an ideal position for a farmout, which AK says he wants. Now we know farmouts are difficult to come by recently and take a very long time.If success comes this would be truly transformative and seems the best way forward in view of the size of the asset.

The skill and success of the complex negotiations in Nigeria is a notable achievement.

The same applies to the recent acquisition in Nigeria.

The careful handling of the set back in Chad with minimal financial exposure but pivoted into a strong position for a significant court award is also notable.

Meantime the company is building a very large renewable business which AK expects to earn 40% IRR. is superb in its own right and will in due course make the shares more appealing to Instis.

So it seems to me there is much to be pleased about, not to mention staff development and admirable involvement in communities in which it invests.

If you listen to the views of Charlie Munger, one of the most successful investors of our time, he lays great emphasis on patience.

Lets mend fences and revert to the previous high standards of this board.

[rockyride] 02/11/2024 21:33

Now give this January 2019 post a bit of thought? It was pre Covid, pre Ukraine war and pre Niger Government issues.Niger business will shortly be a producer and on 5k bopd estimated to generate circa $50m/yr free cash flow next year. With 2.8 billion bls risked recoverable and a 100% success rate so far and a finding cost of $1 for a value of around $6/barrel it's not hard to work out the value potential from here on given the high success rate.As for any early bid, we just have to hope they deal with that as best they can for maximising value given how carefully they put it together in the first place.

[rockyride] 02/11/2024 20:49

Z - wind your neck in! A funding page was set up quite a while ago for Muscular Dystrophy UK to which you kindly donated.Obviously, none of your money came to myself but it's evidently clear that you wish to dwell on this point.If you're so upset to have donated to such a great cause, simply send me your bank details and I'll return every penny of your donation.

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 20:04

Whether I was a fan of the South Sudan acquisition or not, the one advantage of SAVE purchasing the South Sudan acquisition direct from Petronas was the effective date of the deal meaning a % of the value of the accrued barrels produced between the effective date and completing the deal being subtracted from the overall cost of the acquisition. This one cost benefit has now been lost since Petronas in such haste to leave, threw their stake in the projects back at the Government ending the purchase agreement. Granted it would have been less than it should have been due to the pipeline being damaged.

I just wish AK would explain his rationale in still chasing this, when the pipeline is likely to be damaged again and is the only route to market, the Government are so untrustworthy (having tried to raise the money themselves for the project and pull the rug from under SAVE) and have not at any point shown support for SAVE investing in their Oil & Gas assets and the cost benefit associated with the early effective date of the Petronas agreement has been lost.

[zengas] 02/11/2024 19:41

Well i can only take (3319) as directed at me RR/Sunbed/Agadem re your £14 comment as to what else can it be to do with the discussion here.

It's actually £14.65 slide 15.



In your PVT messages looking for tips/what else i was looking at i pointed out what i thought was a £5 play.

£14.65 didn't come from me but the company a few weeks ago.

Next time don't bother me with your requests for donations to any charitable causes for you and as i said before with your unfounded insinuations a number of weeks ago - you hadn't the decency to retract or apologise but continue with your latest dig in the above post.

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 19:12

Rockyride, Thanks

Although not keen on dealing with South Sudan at the time I would have held initially but it very quickly became clear just what a nightmare SS is and how uninterested in SAVE they were.

I would have sold around the time the South Sudan leader sought funding from that 2 bit American finance company to purchase the Oil and Gas assets(can't remember their name) At this point it was obvious the South Sudan Government were shysters who couldn't be trusted and had no interest in SAVE completing the Petronas deal. This was before the only pipeline was damaged which would only have reinforced that I'd made the correct decision.

[rockyride] 02/11/2024 18:45

GU2 - thank you for fighting your corner and countering the arguments put by others. I remember seeing 1,400p being talked about from the risked number of boe in Niger alone, but enough said there although I see the same number posted on another board very recently.I am not in yours or others leagues when fighting my corner, debating, arguing or whatever you may call it.However, I totally agree that after 10 years, 56p to 26p is not very good at all.To everyone else on this board, let me ask one very simple question?

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 17:36

Kinkell,
Highly Geared asked for the long term return on investment to shareholders.

I would query the progress and suggest very little progress has been made in the last couple of years. Chad was a disaster, Petronas assets in SS not acquired, no meaningful progress on Niger, refinancing not complete etc etc. The only positive has been the additional asset stake acquired in Nigeria and some progress on debottlenecking.

I would also query whether it's even possible to guess accurately the underlying value of the business with so many unknowns such as Court decision on Chad, outcome of any dealings in South Sudan, how to value Niger in it's present state, the green projects value, situation regarding refinancing etc etc

Placing an inaccurate underlying value on a company is just guessing and manipulating figures until they say what you want. The share price is the only thing that matters in investment terms, certainly until the picture becomes clearer on all the unknowns, whether you think it's undervalued/overvalued or not. If you think it's undervalued by the market then buy more if that ever becomes possible again.

If SAVE relists soon I'd be happy to shift my holding at the suspension price of 26p whether SAVE are successful in South Sudan or not, but fear this would be highly optimistic and is likely to be a fair bit less.
If this suspension drags on until late next year I might just wait to see what happens with the Chad Acquisition court case first.

[kinkell] 02/11/2024 17:22

Does the share price accurately reflect the progress and underlying value of the business?

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 16:43

AK has presided over a halving of the share price since listing!
The price has never been higher than when listing and has spent a fair amount of time even lower than half the price, before suspension a couple of years ago
That's the only performance that matters and tells you all you need to know.

[highly geared] 02/11/2024 16:09

The only way to look at SAVE is return on investment to shareholders ( capital gain and/or dividends) over a reasonable period of time versus remuneration/ compensation of the BOD over the time period who are charged with delivering said shareholder value. 10 year share price chart anyone?

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 14:10

I'll ask again, Zengas?.... Anyone?..... Anyone want to correct me and show me any South Sudan Government support for the SAVE acquisition over the last two years?

No?..... anybody?......no thought not!

So why continue in this farce in one the the most dire districts in Africa!

Even if a deal were to be done, there's nothing to stop it being re-nationalised the following month, these dire nations have their own rule books