Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 14:21

Zen,
Exactly, so does this not show that after 2 years of work the SS Government has no support for SAVE and AK should call it quits in SS

Seems pretty simple to me. AK has absolutely no chance of getting SS done, and with such little support from Government I don't know why he continues this charade.

If anyone has posted a supportive comment or report from the SS Government about SAVE regarding the acquisition I'm happy to see it.

[zengas] 04/11/2024 14:19

gis - they'd (Petronas) surely had wanted to do a deal. That's the whole purpose of an orderly exit leaving the country to them on that deal.

When the Govt didn't allow the deal on the terms demanded from Petronas - they'd no option but to leave as planned and to wind up the loose ends on the arbitration at a future date.

I don't think it shows either support or not for SAVE - it showed what S.Sudan wanted from Petronas - and that's why i find it strange for Save to be still in talks on a deal if they were somehow totally sidelined by the govt.

I think the issue was between what the Govt wanted from Petronas - and not to do with Save.

Now that the Govt has the assets it's what they can get for/from them in terms of the situation now and in regards to what other players are interested in doing a deal and on what terms. If SAVE are still in the process, then they have to come out with a satisafactory offer to shareholders that they think will pass the vote or they haven't a chance in hell if they think they can ink a deal.

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 14:13

Zen,
If Petronas wanted to 'just leave' they would never have agreed a deal with SAVE in the first place. They only left as they did because the SS Government wouldn't agree to the deal with SAVE so had no option..

Hence my point about the SS Government not showing any support for SAVE in the last 2 years, which is why it's a dead duck for AK to carry on this charade.

Your point seems to confirm what I'm saying.

[zengas] 04/11/2024 14:08

Gisjob - i did. I was replying in the context of the manner in which they left. They just simply would leave. Why remotely stay when no other option to allow them to sell the asset.

As for RR - i see you still haven't withdrawn your allegation.

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 14:07

I know they were, that's what I said !
Read my post again.

Fact is the SS Government wouldn't allow them to complete the deal with SAVE in an orderly fashion. That tells you all you need to know about SS Government and SAVE's standing with them.

[zengas] 04/11/2024 14:05

gisjob - they were going anyway. Costs them more to stay without question when considering time-energy/money/ on late life assets versus other early life assets.

They can afford to walk. No reason to stay as it's likely costing more to be there versus running a completely new/early life asset that needs the focus. They'll simply seek recompense at arbitration up to that point of leaving.

This is a multi national oil major/NOC in terms of value so apply that in context.
They just simply go. That's not even remotely a major issue to them in terms of reserves/production/revenue or value.

[zengas] 04/11/2024 13:56

Disputes run the length and breadth of Africa over the years as a whole MT. A massive pot ash mine in Morocco being the latest and Mali has had to compensate Endeavour mining last few months. It goes with Africa as a whole when investing there. Even Seplat Nigeria have had everything thrown at them over the years including trying to kick the CEO out of the country.

Don't know what worse - the UK government anihilating investor returns on NS Cos on unfair taxes on windfalls that no longer exist. Banks, Energy, Oil Cos all fair game in short lived times of even modest plenty yet no allowance for times of loss in depressed markets. We'd call the Africans absolute charlatans if they did the same.

I always think the same £1 here is as much at risk in this country when factoring in all the tax grabs throughout your entire life anyway that the govt is so keen to take at every opportunity.

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 13:45

It isn't that Petronas chose to leave South Sudan, that was known as an objective.

It's the desperation and manner in which they left that tells you all you need to know about the SS Government and why SAVE shouldn't touch the country with a bargepole.

AK should have walked away from the deal when the SS Government sought finance from the US company Caltech to acquire the assets for themselves, pulling the rug from under the SAVE-Petronas deal. This was over a year ago and highlighted the duplicitous nature of the Government and their lack of support for SAVE
Why AK continues this charade is anyone's guess.

[mount teide] 04/11/2024 13:37

Zen - interesting post - thanks.

Considering the impact that the civil war has generated in both Sudan and South Sudan, and the way the Treasury looting crooks in Juba have treated Petronas and Savannah Energy, I no longer feel comfortable with Savannah continuing to be interested in securing the stolen Petronas assets.

My experience of war torn African nations is that it usually takes a decade or more for even the best performing investments post the ending of Civil wars, to generate a decent return.....due to endemic corruption and the widespread destruction of the Nation's infrastructure critical to the smooth running of the economy and with which to attract investment.

Considered Savannah buying the SS Petronas assets as high risk PRIOR to the near two year Civil War which has economically destroyed the country, seen hundreds of thousands lose their lives, tens of millions displaced, and most of its commercial and residential infrastructure destroyed.

Was dismayed and disappointed that AK did not walk away from SS after its Treasury looters announced following two wasted years of self serving shenanigans they had stolen the Petronas' assets.

[zengas] 04/11/2024 13:28

As for Petronas exiting S.Sudan - 'What's that tell you' Well to counter that, if that's how selective that comment wanted to show - in fact that's not the entire case. Petronas stayed in a number of countries through war, civil unrest etc for the best part of 20 years or so even through the very long war and break up of Sudan as a whole into Sudan/S.Sudan as two seperate countries years ago.

The decision to exit S.Sudan was made long before any war in neighbouring Sudan. It was part of its rationale to focus on newer long life assets which its existing fields in S.Sudan are not. So again lets be honest on perspective. The Chinese (CNPC, Sinochem) Indian ONGC and a number of others still remain with the chinese noted as committed to more expenditure.

As for Petronas - this was part of its decision to gradually exit the entire 'continent' as a whole across various upstream/downstream and other asset sectors.

Petronas’ slow exit from the continent gathers pace, but not without complications

In depth
Issue 486 - 13 Jun 2023 - By James Gavin | 5 minute read

Petronas has shed some of its most significant African assets, as the Malaysian NOC revises its global portfolio to focus on higher grade assets outside the continent. However, its exit from Africa has added to an already complicated situation in Chad, writes James Gavin.



Petronas has struck a deal to sell its 74% stake in in South Africa’s Engen to Vitol’s Vivo Energy.

Engen has 1,300 service stations in seven sub-Saharan states and islands of the Indian Ocean. Combining Engen with Vivo gives the group more than 3,900 service stations and more than 2 billion litres of storage capacity. It will have presence in 27 African countries.



30/3/23
Malaysia's Petronas (20,000 bpd) is also considering leaving Egypt and Africa generally.

Though in 2024 it inked a deal with Shell on LNG in Egypt. (www AI).

[zengas] 04/11/2024 12:40

Re Wildcat MT - it might be a microcap but don't let that get in the way of what, whom or how in the background of it. The assets only came into Jubas hands just over 10 weeks ago with Petronas relinquishing them to it with compensation being sought from the Govt via future arbitration outcome. I don't doubt that Perenco might also be there looking back to the AI articles before or the UAE. That's why i still beleive SAVE are in talks on some kind of structured deal that either progresses to shareholder approval or fails long before that - otherwise there's absolutely no reason to remain suspended.

I posted this on the WCAT bb at the time. Wcat aren't my cup of tea as an investment other than a trade at the time and have raised more meagre cash since.

' Savannah would be well aware of who their competitors are if any.

As for WCAT. Might be laughable to some but look deeper

Michael Kroupeev is an advisor to WCAT and i note he bought a very modest £50k investment over a year ago.

He owns Waterford Investment. He turned Emerald Energy a serial under performer in Colombia oil by making a strategic investment and getting them involved in Syria which had similar discoveries across the border in Iraqi Kurdistan and not long before they had significant discoveries/production.

15-16 years ago I think he made £138m turning Emerald into a 25 or else 50 bagger from memory which was sold to Sinochem. (Emeralds Colombia assets were attacked/ burned down later).



He didn't have the same luck however with Sterling Energy in Kurdistan which then lay stagnant for a number of years while Waterfordy exited and ex Tullow people and others turned it into Afentra.


"The owner of Waterford, Mikhail Kroupeev will join WCAT as a strategic adviser to its Board of Directors and Waterford will also take a nominal equity stake in Wildcat*.

The Waterford Group ("Waterford") was established in 1995 as an investment vehicle for Mr Michael Kroupeev.

Waterford invests mainly in up-stream petroleum projects and since its inception, the fund has invested in over a dozen such projects, both public and private. In London, the company has invested in listed petroleum companies including Emerald Energy, Dana Petroleum, Anglo-Siberian, EuroSov Petroleum, Gulfsands Petroleum, Sterling Energy, Petroceltic and Sibir Energy.

Wildcat will be able to draw upon Mr Kroupeev's extensive experience of managing listed oil companies as well as raising finance and negotiating significant petroleum sector deals. Wildcat will seek to leverage the extensive financial and petroleum network Mr Kroupeev has built up over the last 30 years, working with major investors, funds and major oil companies.

Mandhir Singh, Chairman of Wildcat, commented: "The management of Wildcat is delighted to secure the backing of such a successful and experienced partner.
The support provided by Waterford and Mr Kroupeev and their extensive networks will help to accelerate the process of Wildcat becoming a profitable, producing oil company with a high impact exploration division.This relationship will also allow Wildcat to tackle significant oil projects."



It's this relationship i expect that people are missing about how WCAT could possibly be looking at these kind of opportunities no matter how incredible it may seem (It's not). I expect if a deal, any deal whether in Africa, Sudan or South Sudan could be financed as per Emerald Energy if anyone can remember that. While there's 2.8 billion shares in issue in WCAT, the m/cap is only £5m and it's the kind of relationship where Kroupeev could help inject significant financing/placing etc for WCAT as an investment for a similar if not risky high impact return such as Emerald?

[rockyride] 04/11/2024 12:26

Should we complete on a revised SS acquisition it will more than likely on a non-recourse debt agreement so absolutely nothing to worry about - PMSL

[mount teide] 04/11/2024 12:16

After spending two years shafting Petronas and Savannah Energy, Bernard Amour, Nilepet MD and his fellow Treasury looting gang masquerading as the 'elected' Government of South Sudan said that upon completion of the theft of the PETRONAS Assets, Nilepet would seek partnerships with other International companies to ensure the continuation of operations and expand output.

How's this new policy progressing? The Treasury Looters, err sorry, Juba authorities, have since signed a single MOU to access South Sudan's oilfields expiring May 2025 - with great fanfare and amid jubilant scenes the crooks announced that the mighty London-listed microcap Wildcat Petroleum had passed their incredibly demanding due diligence stage - a process which included the evaluation of the Company's technical competency as well as its financial capability to complete a MAJOR multi BILLION dollar oil production purchase, and most importantly have the capability to deliver a constant stream of bulging Brown Envelopes each month to the members of the criminal gang in Juba with responsibility on behalf of the State for these assets.

'Wildcat Petroleum, a company targeting investment opportunities in businesses and assets within the upstream sector of the petroleum industry, has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding ('MOU') with Nile Petroleum Corporation ('Nilepet'), the National Oil and Gas Corporation of South Sudan, to collaborate together for acquiring the assets held by Petronas Carigali Nile Limited ('PCNL'), a subsidiary of Petronas Nasional Berhad (together 'PETRONAS'), in the Republic of South Sudan).'

After the underhand crooks running the Chad Government visited their fellow Government crooks in Juba earlier this year for an African Mafia 'sit-down', the SS crooks made it very clear they were looking for major international O&G companies NOT small caps(like Savannah Energy) to buy the Petronas assets. So, imagine the market surprise when shortly afterwards the Stetson wearing head crook announced an MOU with a UK microcap!

Against this totally incredulous backdrop, until the market sees some evidence that the Juba crooks are actually negotiating with AK/Savannah in a serious and meaningful way with respect to SAVE securing the former Petronas assets, AK and his NOMAD 'approved' continuous stream of holding RNS should be treated with a lorry load of salt, and the Market Regulator asked to conduct an investigation into their highly unconvincing behaviour considering the evidence in the public domain, on behalf of Savannah 's shareholders.

Wildcat has a market cap of £4.3m, 2.8bn shares, and no production.

Shares are down 72% YTD and 95% over 5 years.

Would pay good money to see the 'due diligence' carried out on Wildcat by the South Sudan Ministry of Petroleum, with respect to Wildcat's financial ability to complete a multi $Billion oil production asset purchase in the country .......particularly when the micro cap has barely enough cash left to keep the lights on until the end of this year!

That no other O&G company has shown the slightest interest in securing the ex Petronas assets speaks volumes - because if there had been any interest it's as certain as night following day that the General Election delaying crooks currently hunkered down in Juba, after failing to pay their Civil Servants salaries for 10 months, would be crowing about it to the World from the rooftop bar in one of the plushest hotels in Juba!

AIMHO/DYOR

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 10:29

This is probably more sensible than the current SAVE negotiations with South Sudan Government

[crankylad] 04/11/2024 10:18

This company should be removed from the Stock market, it's not doing what a company listed on a stock market is designed to do... TRADE.. BUY & SELL. Unfortunately it's got a clown running it, and if ever a EGM is called the clown should be removed!!

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 09:47

We'd never have guessed ! lol

As an almost decade long shareholder you've managed to see a destruction of the share price. Some achievement so far by AK

[jnbrw] 04/11/2024 09:42

Just for some balance and so this bb represents all viewpoints, I remain fully and unwaveringly supportive of AK both for his achievements so far and for his ongoing endeavours. I am also a near decade long shareholder ( where did that go? - obviously that sets some one up nicely for the quip mostly in suspension lol) I think he is easily in the top quartile of CEOs...I am totally aligned with what he is aiming to achieve. I wish the best to all holders and firmly believe that patience, tenacity and perseverance will be rewarded .

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 09:15

When South Sudan comes to nothing and AK finally relists the company on the back of other unrelated positive news we'll know this stalling has been a complete farce.

[1madmarky] 04/11/2024 09:12

RR - exactly. There is absolutely no guarantee that the SS discussion will result in a proposed deal. Also no guarantee that shareholders will accept the proposed deal.
Getting the other developments finalised, plus hopefully reporting a 6 month period without significant FX losses would do wonders for our chances of relisting at a premium to our suspension price.

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 09:02

JNBRW or shall I call you Andrew ! lol

'Many accretive developments to come'
Trouble is a lot of them have been coming for years but still haven't arrived, SS, Niger, refinancing etc etc

I'll never be 'effusive' over South Sudan' it's a horror show

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 09:01

Divmad,

'So let’s see what is announced on all the above by 31/12'

I think you've just read it ! :-)

[jnbrw] 04/11/2024 08:59

Gisjob - no I don't think AK is laughing at all. I think you will find he is very committed, conscientious and hard working to deliver. He has proved this time and time again. Away from the bleating ( if we relisted with a break through/ positive corporate action everyone would be effusive all of a sudden...) very solid and positive financial and operational performance in Nigeria with many further accretive developments to come. Well done for those.

[divmad] 04/11/2024 08:57

Oh I think you would find that if the ICC judgment comes in favour of SAVE in that window you mention, that miraculously the shares would be re-listed post haste!

[rockyride] 04/11/2024 08:36

Time on our side?At least it removes peoples decision whether to buy, add, hold or sell.And during this extended period of suspension, hopefully the underlying value of the company is growing - you would certainly hope so after nearly 2 years of suspension. So strangely, I believe the longer this goes on, the more chance we have of returning at a higher price than the suspended price even if SS eventually fails.Maybe, AK is even fabricating the extended situation to give him time to deliver some successes in other parts of the business. By his own timescales, by the end of the year we should:-Complete Stubb CreekComplete Accugas debt re-financeHave another >300MW of renewables contracts announcedComplete the CPF compression projectNot sure where we are at with this one but the Niger well test is certainly still in playSo let's see what is announced on all the above by 31/12And then of course, we will be in a 6 to 12 month window from the ICC rulings and I'm sure that the closer we get to those, more and more people will be tempted to hold their shares pending those decisions.Who knows, the ICC decisions could even come before we are re-listed from this never ending RTO suspension!!! That would cause some fun and games if the shares were re-listed after a large award from the ICC.

[gisjob2] 04/11/2024 08:20

AK's become to used to being unaccountable due to being suspended. He must be laughing.