Savannah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 12:56

Zengas,

You can be blunt as you like but that doesn't change anything or make you right.

Let's not rewrite history ! I did not jump to any conclusion regarding Nigeria. I have never been against Nigeria as a country to do business in, particularly a gas project. I have spent time in Nigeria myself working as a Civils contractor for a multi-national oil company so I'm more aware of the country than most on here and know it's certainly no South Sudan.

I was never against the 7E deal, I did want AK to also spend more time developing Niger where we had a 100% strike rate after 5 successful wells and by AK's own admission had a development plan that he reneged on without any explanation to shareholders. Accountability is the issue for me. I was happy with the 7E deal as it was almost 100% gas onshore. This didn't give AK carte blanche to bin his (repeat his) proposed development of Niger without ever explaining his reasoning to shareholders. Even now since the troubles in Niger eased and a new pipeline available, progress has been glacial regarding testing/readying the wells for production. This is either because no progress has been made or AK has not deemed shareholders important enough to update. Re-financing has also been progressed at a glacial rate. My only issue with AK on the 7E deal was the lack of updates given to shareholders when the acquisition dragged on and his own stated deadlines were missed, while not progressing Niger, which seems to be a pattern of his. He had no control over the 7E completion dates so should never comment on such matters. I could always see the positives of the 7E deal if completed unlike any foray into South Sudan.

AK successfully completing a deal in Nigeria has no positive or negative impact on how successful AK will be pulling off a deal in South Sudan. Personally I hope he's massively unsuccessful in this despot country and SAVE returns to the day job of Nigeria & Niger or expansion into an additional sensible country. I also seem to remember AK talking about a farm-in partner in Niger many years ago to speed up development, those were the days. Likening the reaction to the lengthy 7E acquisition to South Sudan is tenuous to say the least the only common point is the lack of progress on Niger, which even now allowing for a couple of years for the war has been glacial.

As for not understanding the complexities of any deal in South Sudan, I can completely understand the magnitude of the job in hand which is a very good reason to give it a wide berth. The desperation Petronas have shown to exit the country in the way it has confirms what a despot Country/Government it is. It would have no trouble in spitting out a minnow like SAVE. If South Sudan is such an opportunity then I'd be happy to see any report or comment from the SS Government in the last couple of years supporting SAVE's forthcoming investment. No.... I thought not.

[zengas] 02/11/2024 10:57

gisjob

I think everyone would like to see the shares back trading but there is absolutely no reason to stay suspended for suspensions sake. For others to even think so is beyond stupidity and sorry to be blunt.

Over 5 years ago you were absolutely calling for AK to go, nightmare, and saying why the hell did he ever get the company involved in Nigeria because of the delays in closing the 7E deal and belief is gone on closing it.

Likewise you've no idea of the complexities or kind of deal structure that is being negotiated in S.Sudan to even remotely judge it on (We'll vote on it regardless if it is presented to us).

Just because you haven't access to your stock/capital like the rest of us, doesn't mean you should let your own head have a wobble in jumping to conclusions as like Nigeria.

[gisjob2] 02/11/2024 10:15

True, but too follow the Chad debacle with a foray into South Sudan was madness. Petronas got so desperate to leave they handed back the project. If that doesn't provide insight into how impossible and untrustworthy the government are to deal with I don't know what does. If Petronas can't deal with them what chance has little old SAVE. I reckon AK needs his bumps felt. Something has happened in the last 3 or 4 years to this previously sensible man. Delusions of grandeur?

[kinkell] 02/11/2024 07:18

Well, lets just wait and see how things play out.

[kinkell] 01/11/2024 19:39

The previous posts by JBRW describe exactly the widespread initial adverse reaction by many to moving fron Niger to Nigeria, the complex negotiations involved and the skilful successful negotiation carried out by AK.

The disrespectful comments about AK now suggest to me that the authors do not yet have the measure of the man.

I suggest that it is neither possible or appropriate to pass judgement on the SS position until the final outcome is known.

[zengas] 01/11/2024 17:47

Seriously how do you arrive that - a cop out ? I had you down for some sense.

Tell me what's different in SAVE having moved to a different process to acquire the Petronas assets that still constitutes a RTO ?


8-10-21 AET

' Expression of Interest submitted to Sonangol for potential acquisition in Angola; Shares Suspended.

At this stage there can be no certainty that this application will proceed beyond the company's non-binding expression of interest and there is no guarantee that any bid made will be accepted. If accepted, the potential acquisition remains subject to the ongoing competitive process, satisfactory completion of the necessary due diligence and agreement of a sale and purchase agreement.

The process is at an early stage.

The Company now confirms that the shares will remain suspended until either the publication of an AIM admission document, or until confirmation is given that Afentra's participation in the bid process has ceased.'

[divmad] 01/11/2024 17:36

Well they would say that, wouldn't they. It's a cop out, frankly. Does this continue indefinitely into 2025?

[divmad] 01/11/2024 17:31

Can't see why the regulators don't see it that way, either.

[gisjob2] 01/11/2024 17:26

Then as the SS acquisition has failed AK needs to get SAVE relisted now.

[zengas] 01/11/2024 15:16

As i said before, Dragging it out doesn't serve any purpose.

It won't stop the share price doing what it wants to do this week or 6 weeks or longer from now whether there's no deal now on S.Sudan and no news elsewehere.

I saw the short term effect ie 3 weeks of Longboat dropping from 16 - 7p and a couple of hefty PIs who held more than 3% selling at the lows - only for it to bounce those 3 weeks later mid summer and re-rate on other news to 37.5p (35p now).

You can only stay suspended if there's an actual deal under discusion.

Any short term price flutuation will happen regardless - good or bad and refind its ground on any other positive news (such as the Chad claim, sipec, any other asset deal, new gas deals/compression completion etc). I doubt if anyone like AK and others who understand the business myself included is going to worry about any short term reaction on S.Sudan good or bad.

There's no logic to stay suspended for suspensions sake. None at all !

[1madmarky] 01/11/2024 15:00

Dragging it out until the new year would mean ( hopefully) that the financials would not show a huge FX loss. Thus our inherent profitability would be clear. Also Stubb creek would again hopefully be signed off. Nigerian debt sorted. Gas compression sorted.

[gisjob2] 01/11/2024 13:45

The way AK is trying to delay relistng I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to drag it out for another year in the hope of some sort of resolution of the Chad debacle. Knowing the Nomad they'll probably let him get away with it too.

[gisjob2] 01/11/2024 12:35

I've always been pro Nigeria, as long as it's gas onshore and oil and gas offshore. If as an African oil and gas company you don't want to invest in Nigeria you may as well wind up your company, there's much worse parts of Africa to do business which unfortunately AK has managed to locate since in Chad & worse still South Sudan..

The history of oil and gas in Nigeria is proven. Nigeria's reputation as energy investment has never been as doubtful as Chad & South Sudan. They could only dream of having the history and infrastructure of Nigeria.
Just a shame AK has gone on a depot country tour trying to find so called "value". There's a reason these assets seem cheap, it's because very few would dream of doing business there, particularly as a little company without much clout like SAVE.

[jnbrw] 01/11/2024 12:29

...of course meant " the then , Savannah Petroleum...

[jnbrw] 01/11/2024 12:23

Yes, there was quite a lot of disquiet at the time and rumblings of "not why I invested in the then Savannah energy "when neighbouring Niger was the real investment focus at the time( and the source of the original fundraising ). Nigeria was going through a period of instability politically and its reputation as a region for investment was suffering and not good. Interesting how things turn out re Niger Vs Nigeria...

[gisjob2] 01/11/2024 12:00

Yes it is, that's the point of a forum.
Nigeria has a much better developed oil and gas history than SS stretching back decades. Also the 7E deal was Gas which was/is a much safer option than onshore oil which is prone to pipeline disturbance. I don't remember many complaints about doing business in Nigeria, certainly nowhere near the complaints of South Sudan.

[jnbrw] 01/11/2024 11:36

Gisjob - well that is your assumption. Also when the "shock" decision was announced to invest in Nigeria ( way back when) those with long memories will recall that many posters were in disbelief saying that Nigeria was uninvestible , the last place AK should be acquiring a business and that the whole escapade would be a nightmare and end in disaster ( mm that's an interesting one with the passage of time.) Nigeria now seen as stable, productive and an exemplar of an investment region in Africa.

[gisjob2] 01/11/2024 11:19

SS is no Nigeria and I doubt AK is having any meaningful negotiations with anyone in SS.

[jnbrw] 01/11/2024 08:56

It's worth pointing out there may be far more delicate and detailed negotiations taking place in the background that can be announced in rns and far more complex pathways to deal making can appear on the surface. The original Nigerian deal was born out of a chaotic situation and involved lengthy deal making negotiations with both national and international participants. They are never easy and it would be counter productive in the extreme to publicize.

[upwego] 01/11/2024 05:56

Since them odd trades went though the other day, my 300,000 shares with barclays stockbrokers say that my investment is 98.8% down and only worth £900.

Anyone else seeing this? probably a glitch or something.

[gisjob2] 31/10/2024 18:34

Rockyride,
I completely agree that AK has somehow managed to bewitch the nomad.
I've finally had enough of being kept in the dark by AK. His record of delivery in the last few years is shocking whether it's the forays into depot countries like SS, the continual delaying of any notable work in Niger (I can't imagine any other company being so slow on this having drilled 5 out of 5 successful wells many years ago) and the constant delays in sorting out the refinancing.

But worse than all this has been the way AK has treated shareholders with contempt by keeping them constantly in the dark about the business as a whole and the progress of any acquisitions. AK has taken his eye off the ball and forgotten what his day job is instead indulging in some fantasy world of playing 'multinational oil company boss' for the day. He's failed to deliver anything of note for the last couple of years and should resign. The least he can do is get SAVE relisted and let any disgruntled shareholders end this misery and sell up.

It's not clever to preside over a halving of the share price, anyone is capable of doing that.
AK needs to end this farce.

[haideralifool] 31/10/2024 16:16

Savannah is proud to announce that we have achieved a new milestone of three million working hours without a Lost Time Injury ("LTI") across our business operations in Nigeria since January 2023. https://x.com/savannah_energy/status/1852021338577474028?s=46&t=cSBAFSCGH9dVrM-ogKDT2QNothing like the milestone of years since the share price last fell.