Saga Share Discussion Threads

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 17:32

Guess this had something to do with today:Https://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/389800/first-covid-secure-uk-cruise-call-since-start-of-pandemic

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 16:57

koetserThanks, think I've finally got where you are coming from - FY21/22 back to normalish profits plus some.Good to see a blue day for holders at last.

[koetser] 20/10/2020 16:30

first blue day!!!!

[koetser] 20/10/2020 16:00

36,855,555 26%

[tdickit68] 20/10/2020 15:55

Hi Sorry fairly new to this , can any one help me by telling me how many shares Roger de Haan now owns ? And what percentage of the company that is ?

[koetser] 20/10/2020 14:57

yes there will be a travel insurance hit. But remember Saga's biggest business by far is car insurance. 3 year policies are good as ones fixed pre covid will produce better margins as premiums have dropped.

[koetser] 20/10/2020 14:56

hi disco,

I am only taliking about reserve releases from AICL. From first six months results:

Underwriting
• The Underwriting business profit of £28.0m, including £27.0m of reserve releases, is ahead of expectations. This is due
to favourable experience on large bodily injury claims relating to prior accident years.


Imagine how favourable it will be next year due to older generation not using their car

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 14:45

koetserInsurance profit last FY (to 31st Jan 2020) was £130m, sorry but how are profits going to increase 30% to 60%.Nearly 56% of their policies are fixed term (3 years).Are you talking about 2021 FY?.....when Q1 travel insurance is still likely to be hit.

[koetser] 20/10/2020 14:08

discodave45,

I am expecting an extra £40 to £80 million extra to be transferred from AICL to Saga's profits for H! 2021/2022. Quite large when you look at current Market Cap

[justiceforthemany] 20/10/2020 13:50

Heathrow airport to offer £80 rapid 60 minute Covid test - FT

Game changer for cruise industry also.

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 13:47

....with part of the reduction in claims costs to be returned to customers.?No uncertainty IMO, how much only they know. Which comes back to how much is the "huge bonus" you mentioned?.

[koetser] 20/10/2020 13:41

also note "part" and who decides that part?

[koetser] 20/10/2020 13:40

thank you is that an uncertainty or are they actually going to do it?

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 13:38

'The Group has not recognised any COVID-19 related claims frequency upside in current year results or financial projections, because of uncertainty over the current pricing and claims outlook, and with part of the reduction in claims costs to be returned to customers.'

[koetser] 20/10/2020 13:36

might be returned if gvt forces it but looks unlikely. they are just delaying and hoping no one notices IMHO

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 13:33

koetserThanks but thought they also stated that some benefits accrued will be returned to customers.Don't think anybody knows how it will all pan out for H1 next year, got to get through this FY first!.

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 13:31

Yep that's why I'm interested.Sorry but slightly disagree, Sir Roger was guaranteed £75m (at 27p and some at 15p) and the extra £25m was nailed on IMO. This was mentioned prior to the fund raise and also believe the press got hold of it as well.As you say though, details aside it shouts bargain.All the best

[koetser] 20/10/2020 13:28

discodave45,

Saga owns AICL and they do the underwriting of car insurance mainly. However they have stated that any profits from reduction in claims will come in next financial year.

They did not sell much in travel insurance so reduction in claims there wont help

IMHO

[city chappy] 20/10/2020 13:21

Yes he also bought some shares in the general offer at a lower price that were not taken up by others which lowers his average buy price, but he would not have known in advance how many of the latter he would get, so in theory he might not have got any but was still willing to buy the large chunk at 27p, equivalent to 405p post consolidation in the current market. Regardless of the precise details, it's a big indication of his confidence in being able to add value and q pointer for those thinking of entry now.

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 13:02

CCAgree!That said I believe fjgooner had worked out Sir Rogers average buy price was 18p.

[discodave45] 20/10/2020 12:53

koetser Majority of profit (60%+) comes from broking and from interims the impact due to COVID on insurance profits was £6.5m, that was nearly 10% of total profits generated.....there was a significant reduction in travel insurance policies.Can you expand on this huge underwriting bonus please as not up on that part of the business.

[glavey] 20/10/2020 12:15

K, And I guess travel insurance claims will be down too.


"Saga is going to announce a huge bonus from their underwriters..."

Is that how it works then?