Saga Share Discussion Threads

[discodave45] 17/10/2020 10:28

For H1 insurance generated about £70m profit (£12m/month) and they now have about £60m in cash (divestments and fund raise). So their monthly cash burn £6m-£8m can be met for the next 9 months or so (to April/May). They need the liners to set sail as planned!.

[koetser] 16/10/2020 22:39

slicethepie,

I totally agree. I actually feel sorry for RDH who piled £100M into the company for a 26% share. Technically if he did nothing according to the market he could have waited till today and bought 100% of the company for £38M????

The market is bonkers WTF

[discodave45] 16/10/2020 20:18

See what you mean, misunderstood.

[koetser] 16/10/2020 19:42

actually really they need travel to be profitable to pay down their debt long term. They took out loans against their ships on the premise that profit from the cruises will pay the debt, but at the moment the ships are costing money. Not sure how much profit from insurance at the moment and whether it covers this

[kirk 6] 16/10/2020 19:05

This will probably treble in the coming weeks.

[discodave45] 16/10/2020 19:05

Guess you meant they need the profit from insurance to pay down debt.But I'm not too certain how much debt they need to repay over the next 6 months to 2 years. As for the loans for the two cruise liners, a debt waiver has been granted until end Mar 21 (total £32m per recent RNS). These amounts to be amortised over 4 years therefore increasing repayments from 2021 to 2025. Also believe they opened some forex hedges at the time of taking out the loan/s (from memory for both liners about £550m).The recent capital raise has also paid down a lot of their debt so I'm assuming over the next 6 months in particular they are okay in terms of covenants and repayments.

[koetser] 16/10/2020 18:30

problem is yes £6 to £8 million cash burn but they need profit from travel to pay down their debts!!! which is the real issue

[discodave45] 16/10/2020 18:25

They did say £6m to £8m per month cash burn for travel but didn't break that down.

[slicethepie] 16/10/2020 18:18

I did mention in an earlier post that I think running costs for ships whilst in harbour should decline as staff are typically on short term contracts 6 months or so. This will mean that from August they only pay staff who are keeping the ship ticking over. Would be good to get some confirmation of this.

[discodave45] 16/10/2020 17:25

Will edit my previous post about breaching covenants, apologies, I only read quickly this paragraph from an RNS:'While the future impact of COVID-19 remains highly uncertain, there is an increased risk of disruption of the Cruise and Tour Operations businesses well into 2021. While the Group has significant available liquidity and is expected to remain in compliance with all banking covenants through at least the next six months in all reasonable scenarios and before any additional actions are taken to improve financial flexibility, such an outcome would have a potentially significant adverse impact on the position beyond this date. Specifically, there is a risk that the Group would not comply with all of its financial covenants as at 31 July 2021 in the absence of such further actions being taken.'I didn't read the next bit in my haste which basically says hence their fund raise to prevent a breach:'In light of the above challenges, the Group is intending to raise GBP140m net of costs, which is fully committed, and includes a significant investment from Sir Roger De Haan. The equity raise is intended to improve the Group's financial position by reducing the term loan from GBP134m to GBP70m and repaying the drawn GBP40m of revolving credit facility, with the balance of proceeds raised increasing available cash by around GBP36m. The Group has also agreed with its lending banks, subject to the equity raise, to extend the maturity of the remaining GBP70m term loan to May 2023 and to amend certain bank covenants to provide additional headroom in stress test scenarios. The GBP100m undrawn revolving credit facility will remain available until its existing maturity date of May 2023.'Sorry!

[plentymorefish] 16/10/2020 15:56

Appreciate you letting us know.....

[koetser] 16/10/2020 15:54

just topped up

[albert3591] 16/10/2020 14:32

This is not looking good.

[discodave45] 16/10/2020 13:11

squinty
That’s 20% up on your prediction within minutes!.
Edit: hours!!

[discodave45] 16/10/2020 12:56

IMO until there are more concrete signs that their two cruise liners will set sail April, then this could just drift lower. I did think the fund raise would steady the ship and had in mind 10p post dilution / consolidation, but the market is still not convinced by the looks of things.
Edit: As mentioned by other posters, signs of combatting Corona and a vaccine will be the catalyst this share needs......or a phone call to the two US bidders!.

[squintyflinty] 16/10/2020 12:31

I reckon we shall soon see £1.20 , but that should be the bottom really.

[squintyflinty] 16/10/2020 12:30

The open offer was at 12p . It's now 8.5p pre-consolidation. That's one hell of a drop.

[koetser] 16/10/2020 12:00

when the constant AT trade selling stops. This has been pushed lower and lower because of momentum. However I think you may have picked the bottom but need confirmation. i think if the bid goes above 130p then we know this is on the way up.

[scepticalinvestor] 16/10/2020 11:58

This really is just too low - decided to buy in (that 8k odd trade is mine)

[w1ndjammer] 16/10/2020 11:57

how will you know its a up signal and not a DCB

WJ.

[koetser] 16/10/2020 11:48

I am waiting for a clear up signal.

[w1ndjammer] 16/10/2020 11:44

well i have bought a few this morning, lets see how we go....

WJ.