Saga Share Discussion Threads

[koetser] 16/7/2019 22:21

EJ
My advice is wait for a month to see if a new CEO is appointed that in itself would push the price up. But I think we need to exit all shares by September in case of no deal Brexit. Just my opinion

[sharebuddy1] 16/7/2019 15:29

Interesting that Peel Hunt have maintained a buy rating with a target price of 110p

[edmondj] 16/7/2019 10:27

If you look at Britishballs' record it has twice erroneously told followers to go short in the last month. You'd have needed a day trader's approach to avoid loss. Is a somewhat useful but no way dependable 'finger in the wind' as to stock sentiment.

On fundamentals I'm sticking to the question whether Saga insurance policies can improve their reputation hence appeal, such than expected cruise revenues can genuinely raise group profit not substitute insurance losses in a tough market.

[blueball] 16/7/2019 08:49

Stay long.

[koetser] 16/7/2019 08:46

Strange because of the large spread!!! But it is volatile in morning

[gripfit] 16/7/2019 07:43

All I know is the fact the price goes up a far lot slower than it comes down

[koetser] 16/7/2019 07:38

Predictions today 46p

[koetser] 15/7/2019 16:30

EJ totally agree 😎

[koetser] 15/7/2019 15:17

Dr biotech

The point is people follow MF so punters will start buying in and pushing price uppwarfs

[dr biotech] 15/7/2019 14:37

The day I take MFs articles seriously is the day I sell everything and pay someone else to invest. I find their articles repetitive, anodyne and totally lacking any insight. I read one on Lloyds that essentially said if we go into recession and house prices crash then the Lloyds share price will go down...waste of my life reading that.

[edmondj] 15/7/2019 14:31

Short-term, the stock would seem to depend on the 'battle of the algos' which are programmed around... anyone's guess (?). Most trades being batches of AT's that appear.

Medium-term, popularity of the new cruise ships and 3-year fixed-price insurance policies, where the AGM cited 60,000 sold - of which 30,000 are new customers.

Personally I don't figure the 'peace of mind' appeal e.g. I ran an online car insurance quote which elicited 3-year annual fixed prices at a 31% premium to the one-year quote. I didn't ask for an 'essentials' versus 'add-ons' split in the quotation but Saga generated/presented these possibly to make the more expensive policy feel good value. But for instance, driving me on to my destination after a car fault/accident is repeating what's in my roadside insurance.

Another aspect is whether the industry generally pursues more price-fixing of policies thereby reducing Saga's special appeal (to fleece you) currently:

[koetser] 15/7/2019 14:17

Dr biotech

Read motley fool Sunday report above 😃

[dr biotech] 15/7/2019 13:59

I am 15% up here - not sure whether to cash in now or hold for the medium term.

[koetser] 15/7/2019 08:18

Off to a cracking start 🥳

[koetser] 14/7/2019 22:00

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Over the past 12 months, the Saga (LSE: SAGA) share price has been a pretty poor investment. Excluding dividends, the stock has declined around 68% since the beginning of July last year, compared to a decline of just 2% for the FTSE 100.

However, during the past two weeks, Saga has staged a slight come back. After printing an all-time low of 33p in mid-June, the stock has since rebounded by more than 20% and is currently dealing for just under 40p per share.

I think there’s a good chance this rally could continue, and eventually take the stock back up to where it was at the beginning of this year, above 100p, although that’s a long term target. In the near term, I think a more conservative goal of 60p-80p might be more accomplishable.

It all comes down to valuation
Over the past 12 months, as Saga has issued a string of dire trading updates, confidence in the business has evaporated. As a result, even though City analysts expect the company to report earnings of 7.5p share for its current financial year, the market doesn’t seem to trust this forecast.

A stock’s valuation gives us a lot of insight into what the market thinks about a company and Saga’s P/E of just 5.3 seems to suggest investors have almost no confidence in the business and its management.

I’m not willing to give the company the benefit of the doubt just yet, but I do think there are some signs management’s efforts to stabilise the business are starting to work. As I noted the last time I covered the company, Saga’s insurance business, which has been the group’s problem child for the past two years, seems to be on the road to recovery. Meanwhile, there appears to be a robust demand from travellers for Saga’s new cruise offering.

Granted, the company isn’t out of the woods just yet, but management seems to think the business has stabilised. If this trend continues throughout the rest of the year, I think there’s a good chance the market could re-rate the stock as Saga’s outlook improves, and its future becomes easier to determine.

The market dislikes uncertainty more than anything else, and the Saga share price has been shrouded in uncertainty for much of the past two years. If the company continues to report positive trading, the shroud of uncertainty should lift, and investors are likely to return.

Double in value
As confidence in the business returns, I think the Saga share price could double in value. Historically, the stock has traded at a P/E of between 8 and 15, substantially above where it is today.

I reckon even a modest improvement in the group’s fortunes could justify a P/E ratio in the high-single to low-double-digit range, giving a potential upside of 100% or more for investors who are willing to take the risk today. On top of this, the stock also supports a dividend yield of 10% at the time of writing.

So, if your’e looking for a company that has the potential to double your money, it might be worth taking a closer look at the Saga share price.

[dr biotech] 13/7/2019 08:52

hxxps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/spirit-of-discovery-sagas-new-cruise-ship-cool-art-jazz-and-a-spa-6cxp778tz

Fairly decent review of the new ship.

[koetser] 12/7/2019 15:36

44p by end of day?

[koetser] 12/7/2019 15:35

More interesting price action

[spotdog40] 12/7/2019 14:45

I don't read too much into these bad customer/employee reviews or personal experiences of "I found it cheaper elsewhere".
It's difficult for a company to simultaneously be good for customers, shareholders, employees, and management.
As a SAGA shareholder, I'm happy that they're charging over the odds for insurance. I'd also like them to be charging over the odds for holidays and cruises, but I'd like the customers (apart from the uneconomical to placate whingers) to be happy with service levels.
I'm an amazon customer, but I wouldn't want to work there, and I wouldn't be a buyer of shares at their crazy P/E.
Share price seems to have firmed up here. The P/E is crazy in the opposite direction, and I still see more upside than downside at today's price.