Revolution Bars Share Discussion Threads

[waspfactory] 14/3/2021 11:52

I'll drink to that Jimbo :-)

[jimbomorry] 14/3/2021 11:41

Vaccination too far advanced within UK particularly for vulnerable groups, some of whom are on second jab now. They wont be going back into Hospital with Covid, thank heavens. No chance now of NHS being overwhelmed with Covid patients, even with new variants as existing vaccines still prevent serious symptoms and new vaccines will come on line in late Summer too. HM Gov very determined for this to be UK's last lockdown too and IMHO they'll achieve this. I'm pro EU but have to say it's a shame their vaccine performance seems to have been so utterly dire, and this is at the heart of their problem. Macron and Von Der Lyon should hold their heads in shame. However, they are working hard to improve this and to catch up with us. Also, EU will only see limited closures in some countries, e.g. schools and shops for a short period - not for months on end. I think, too, that even with Spanish flu back in 1918 when there was no vaccine at all, there were only two bad waves, which we have now had, and 12-months of disruption, which we have also now had. Must confess I thought about shorting RBG but I am not going to as fearful of the risk of a sudden spike on rising feel good factor. Spring is here now and Summer soon. Roll on pubs opening back up. Everyone I know can't wait to go back shopping and drinking. Ha ha.

[ken chung] 14/3/2021 08:25

Europe going into third lockdown.

[jimbomorry] 12/3/2021 17:20

Approaching support. Could be another leg-up coming.

[gordan ghetto] 08/3/2021 13:09

ANA is the best UK cannabis stock

Share price 1.1p
Only £6.4m mkt cap

Fastest growing sector worldwide
Will have first mover advantage in UK
Same growers as GW Pharma
4 biggest shareholders hold over 50%
BOD own 30%
Massively undervalued (£6.4m mkt cap)
Near term multi bagger on license approval
Partners with leading prof , scientists etc
Primed for a RTO/ main listing (price driver)
Under the radar (most chased MXC,CBX)
Looking to bring a product to market
Off take agreement in place already
Will be producing 200 TONS per year
(200,000 kilos)
Has the most land out of every cannabis co
Fully funded for phase 1
UK medical cannabis growing 20% month
Only 584m shares in issue
Hardly any available in open market
Will apply for a commercial license too

Worth getting in on the ground floor imho.

[overeager] 05/3/2021 12:23

Schroeder,
Some interesting analysis in post 2070. I see you're using an EBITDA multiple of 7-8. If I were valuing this for a private equity deal that's pretty much where I'd be at too. I would have guessed a multiple of more like 10 for a quoted asset, which would obviously alter the numbers considerably and imply a fair bit of upside from here.

I'm not sure what I make of it and can't find any decent comparison. Are you aware of any?

[glavey] 05/3/2021 09:46

They do that when the risk premium is too high. A little red flag pops up. Like the one higher up this page. You do see it, don't you?

[yus777] 05/3/2021 09:10

this is gonna go up big time ig stop going long not letting you trade long

[sooty snipes] 05/3/2021 08:33

Make life difficult for those who won't have the vaccine. With high vaccine roll out and take up we will all start living again.

[ken chung] 05/3/2021 08:18

Lemmings and mushrooms only.

[qs99] 04/3/2021 12:38

Well market does seem to like the update and budget IMO....DYOR and will we able to nudge 35p+ from here?

[schroedar] 04/3/2021 12:14

apologies: 2 weeks.

benefits of zero business rates until end June and reduced thereafter, zero VAT on soft drinks and extension of the Furlough scheme are already excluded from cash burn

[city chappy] 04/3/2021 12:03

66 bars X £18,000 grants per bar = £1,188,000

Plus the benefits of zero business rates until end June and reduced thereafter, zero VAT on soft drinks and food, and extension of the Furlough scheme.

[schroedar] 04/3/2021 11:58

City Chappy...which in aggregate saves them about 1 week's cash burn.....

[city chappy] 04/3/2021 11:54

Budget announced yesterday gives grants extension of Furlough scheme, grants of up to £18,000 per pub/hospitality premises, zero business rates until the end of June then discounted thereafter, freeze on alcohol tax, and zero VAT on soft drinks and meals.

[le4r] 04/3/2021 10:21

Correction: 89k

[le4r] 04/3/2021 10:20

Chunky 75k share purchase gone through. Looks like there was an 85k one earlier too, though hard to determine with price. Cash burn does make things look a tad uncomfortable, esp if any further delays to reopening, but I think the demand will go through the roof when they do get up and running. Plus remember they're in better shape than before and a lot of competition from smaller independents will (unfortunately in some ways) be gone...

[middlesboroughfc] 04/3/2021 08:50

Dont forget 400k loss PER WEEK adds another £2m to debt before opening

[schroedar] 04/3/2021 08:33

Qs99. Yes, upside if they shoot the lights out when they start trading. Equally downside risk with rising interest rates, higher tax rate, further lockdowns, poorer than hoped for trading, rising VAT and management’s uncanny historic knack of never meeting expectations! Definitely no better than a hold for me. If I was them and wanted some firepower to make acquisitions another £15m fundraise would be pretty necessary

[qs99] 04/3/2021 07:53

not a bad analysis, but sharp pay down of debt and ability to increase its EBITDA will see upside imo....let's see how market reacts, I sense it may be through 30p, but if it falls then maybe your analysis is the right one? DYOR

[schroedar] 04/3/2021 07:50

So about £31 m debt when it starts trading. Plus around £3m to spend on restocking booze and food plus whatever vat/ tax/ rental liabilities remain outstanding. Let’s say £36m. Assuming £13m of normalised ebitda less £3m of annual maintenance capex, leaving £10m of real ebitda. As a relatively low growth business, probably a 6-7x ebitda multiple, so max enterprise value of £70m. Deducting debt, leaves £34m equity value. 125m shares, so fair value of equity 27p. Ie current price! And that assumes no risk in reopening and no more lockdowns! So not seeing much upside here!

[middlesboroughfc] 04/3/2021 07:27

In December 2020, the Group estimated that if it were unable to trade due to enforced closure because of the pandemic and taking into account the various Governmental support schemes and its agreements with landlords, the Company's cash burn would be approximately £0.4m-£0.45m per week. At that time, the Group had £17.6m of liquidity headroom. At 3 March 2021, the Group had net debt of £27.1m



Nasty!


Burning £0.4m-£0.45m per week. I thought was per month. FFS



Will be a rescue placing coming at the first opportunity methinks

[netcurtains] 03/3/2021 12:30

Will the extension of the furlough scheme and the grant money help RBG?

[glavey] 03/3/2021 06:42

SonnyC, where have you been hiding? What happened to Deltic?